Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[thorpematt] 07/2/2018 12:38

Encouragingly tremendous. Which rather belies the fear in the market that the outlook is poor I would say.

Given the low valuation this remains one of the better options at this point in the cycle (stock market cycle I mean).


I believe the UK all share is trading at a fPER of 13.7 presently and RDW is on 7.1

err... about half price then!

Now given that market corrections are usually about fears of short-term over pricing, I would say that any quality stock with a positive outlook would be less susceptible to a fall in such scenarios... because simply put it's under-priced not over-priced.

Of course if you fancy a house price calamity then all that is not relevant....but I don't (for reasons previoulsy explained).

[jonesy2222] 07/2/2018 11:27

Encouraging your hard to please.Tremendous results 9p dividend

[aimingupward2] 07/2/2018 09:58

Encouraging interim results this morning, confident outlook and a nice 50% increase in the dividend.

[thorpematt] 06/2/2018 18:21

Not much carnage there. Theoretically this shouldn't have got bought today...so I asume the interims will be good then?!

[r ball] 06/2/2018 18:07

Results tomorrow

[bricktycoon] 06/2/2018 06:12

Carnage today this will crash big time.

[thorpematt] 05/2/2018 22:57

Maybe....but in this market a watching brief may be wise for a few days I sense.

Dow was of 4.6% at close, so clearly some fear returning to the market alongside some heavy profit taking and concerns over rate rises and central bank policies.

I closed my $ short today and stuck it all into FTSE short. This evening we've been below 7000 which a couple of weeks ago would have seemed most unlikely.

My considered belief on the economics is that simply put those bond yields are indicating a return to normality...that it is say some more sensible rates of interest and yields. If so we will see a combination of slightly higher rates in the short-term at s theoretical reduction in fair valuations for stock. (see Ben Graham formula for details on fair value and their relationship to bond yields).

Actually all of the above is rather old news (bond yield curves have been rsing for a while now). It just seems that wall street in particular has only just realised the fact. Of course all of this begs the question: Where does that leave share prices. My view (FWIW) is that we're about to see a fair bit of fluctuation but that the wider global economics look pretty positive from where I'm sat. (A more positive outlook is afterall the reason WHY those banks have stopped printing their money). All the indicators (from copper to BDI to commodities to oil price point that way)

A return to normal? Nah, too many of the world leaders still need to inflate away their debt. Tightening policy too far is gonna cost 'em too much in interest payments. The world has done a pretty good job of weaning itself of its printing addiction BUT that does not mean that its bankers and politician have not grown too ussed to the power of low interest rates to assist them in their desires.

Housebuilders in the UK? As I have said before unless the prices of housing falls, the margins for the builders will remain hugely profitable. Everyone thinks they can call the top but few actually do. I see no short-term end to the shortage in housing in the UK for the foreseeable. So yes bargain hunting in due course...

[mayers] 05/2/2018 11:54

Beginning to look like THORPEMATT time :-)

[thorpematt] 22/1/2018 00:33

I must confess a took a little profit from my November puchase off the table at just under 660p. This was simply a technical decision based upon the obvious resistance on the chart which was likely to co-incide with an index linked re-trace, and not because mid-term the stock is not an obvious buy.

IF I get a big enough re-trace those profits will go back on the table...but as we know the market is not always wholly predictable...so we will wait and see.

[r ball] 18/1/2018 08:09

a bit of negative sentiment. I would expect weather to impact on Jan sales figures....

[r ball] 28/12/2017 09:41

As ever there is an inverse relationship between increase in share price and number of posts.

[thorpematt] 10/11/2017 15:22

So, I have all buy orders filled today. No more buying from me likely for time being.

Logic behind the buy is braodly based upon the principle that trailing iflationary, housing and rate rise information being just that (trailing). If we understand the interplay between those items and mix it in with exchange rate movements (trailing) we perhaps can glean a better understanding of what is truly most likely in short to medium term.

I could explain that a lot bettter and in a lot more detail.. given more time but in reality it's not hard to see what's been drving inflation and that that will end shortly...as will the perceive need for rate rise.

Supply/ demand, desire, need, affordability drive prices in the housing market. Anything less than a crash and RDW is silly cheap.

[r ball] 10/11/2017 09:02

Sorry guys. I'm out now. Yes wiped out half my profit. Gloomy outlook. European property looks more interesting.

[acamas] 10/11/2017 08:14

I think there are other factors as well the state of this government, the weak pound, effects of brexit and the sluggishness of the housing market. Some may be real some may be just possibilities but they are all hovering over the economy Then there is the rising costs of selling an existing property I am told this is acting like a brake on the flow of house sales

[adamb1978] 10/11/2017 08:05

Can understand the share price coming off a bit given the PSn and then RDW statements, even if they weren't horrendous.

That said, RDW is now trading on a PE of just over 8x historic earnings or about 7.5x current year so you can strongly argue that the market is pricing it, as well as other housebuilders, as if a recession is going to start tomorrow.

If there is some sort of macro downturn and earnings halve, it should in theory mean that the share price can, to be an extent, be insulated from it. The bigger impact on share prices would be if Mr Market thought that one or other of the housebuilders was going to need a rights issue to get through any downturn but given their balance sheets, it feels like they should be ok. As a result, I'm not going to be touching my housebuilding shareholdings during any downturn but instead look at any significant weakness as an opportunity to add

[bigbertie] 09/11/2017 10:59

hopefully not as bad as 2007. differences now are Help to Buy and mortgage market still reasonable - we surely won't have another collapse of mortgage bond market! Agm statement looks fairly good but more bad news could panic the market. I sold some a few days ago but am holding the rest. good luck all.

[bigbigdave] 09/11/2017 07:13

"ongoing political and economic uncertainty has resulted in a slight slow down in sales in recent weeks"

also

House price falls now widespread, say surveyors


Starting to feel a little bit like 2007 but wtfdik.

[bigbertie] 08/11/2017 13:05

Possibly read across from PSN, perhaps a general worry that housebuilder shares have always been very cyclical (and are now relatively high). I think RDW is on a much lower forward p/e ratio than PSN so maybe not as exposed. PSN said it would "marshall group cash resources" to take advantage of land opportunities - some will interpret that as a threat to their big pay-outs IMHO

[r ball] 08/11/2017 07:46

Read across from psn?

[aimingupward2] 01/11/2017 12:41

- and as at 1st Nov' the share price is certainly heading that way. The earlier Liberum target of 601p left way behind.

The company is well placed for 'stellar growth', Liberum say. Hyperbole, no doubt, but at least we can expect it to go on growing pretty strongly, especially given the pressing need for more housing in this country.

[aimingupward2] 24/10/2017 09:08

Liberuum has raised it’s target price from 601p to 734p with a ‘buy’ recommendation.

[r ball] 18/10/2017 17:38

Why my lag viz Bwy?