Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 29/9/2017 12:01

Average broker target price is around £7, so plenty of headroom yet.

As of today, Oct 5th, RDW is on a roll. Nice to see.

[bigbertie] 29/9/2017 10:23

That's better - those institutions would not have signed up for the placing at 590p unless they were pretty confident. The dip was a good buying opportunity IMHO.

[lyme regis1] 27/9/2017 17:38

The price is starting to tick upwards

[richj5000] 20/9/2017 10:37

Interesting article in Sunday Telegraph about how to reduce the ever increasing national debt.Recommends the next Budget should "unleash a huge house building programme" in order to get debt down.Hope it happens! Maybe a cut in stamp duty as well.

[shaker44] 19/9/2017 14:22

Be cheaper to house them here than in Brussels! Save a pile on expenses!!

[bigbertie] 19/9/2017 14:11

SP looking more positive now. We'll need more houses to accomodate the extra civil servants we will have after Brexit! (just joking....I think)

[bigbertie] 19/9/2017 09:47

Edit. Ooops - here is what I meant to write. If Morgan's target for 2020 is going to be met, they should be heading for eps of about 78p in 17/18 which make the shares look good value at 554p. I bought some this morning. Here's hoping.....

[thorpematt] 18/9/2017 17:58

Right I have tried cut and paste but it won't tabulate so you'll have to read the PDF from BoE. Carney's speech in Washington today is as per the PDF. He is confirming what I thought already... as per my post last night.But basically what I said yesterday i.e gradual rise in interest rate only.

If you dont wanna read it all read Page 16 near the bottom, starts with
"I am also mindful that central banks have generally been able to achieve their objectives.....




Anyway, it's as I said yesterday gradual un-winding of spring. Not gonna kill us.
Plenty of time to make lots of cash building houses.

BBC report is as per their easy to digest soundbite website.(albeit a little simplistic).

[thorpematt] 17/9/2017 17:07

Yes last week was a bit of a perfect storm here really:

The BoE making noise about interest rate rises,
Chairman top-slicing profits,
HPI surveys published being interpreted as negative.






Always tough to see into the future with any degree of acuracy but it is difficult to see a pricing collapse any time soon in the UK with such afforadability still WAY off the 2007 levels; very low un-employment and a chronic shortage of housing stock as backdrops.

Only a significant drop in prices would really hurt the new build sector by my calculations - since the margins are so good right now. And I just don't see that being the case.

I do see a gradual rise in interest rates, but TBH all western governments will be cautious on that one and so that will take a time to play out I suspect.

[bigbertie] 16/9/2017 21:22

The Telegraph reports that the Morgan sale spooks investors, but does not mention that a number of big investors have bought 26m RDW shares at (I think) 590p, which shows great confidence in the building market IMHO. A lot of the fall in this and other shares tis week must be due to political events, natural disasters, BOE comments and rising Sterling - not Steve Morgan. IMHO. I'm holding.

[bigbertie] 13/9/2017 13:19

shaker, I agree - the Telegraph is worried Morgan is losing interest, but he is still chairman and he is still heavily committed financially. When Davidson dropped the reins at Persimmon it kept motoring!

[shaker44] 13/9/2017 03:13

Hard to see why rdw is suddenly worth less because the boss sold a few. Looks like a buying opportunity surely?

[adamb1978] 12/9/2017 22:44

Its a bit over 10% of his holding; personally I don't have a problem with it in the slightest

[gorse] 12/9/2017 19:50

Seems to me the share placing is both reasonable and logical, and a fairly minimal sensible diversification by the Chairman.

[the_equaliser] 12/9/2017 17:42

BFN
Steve Morgan, Chairman, sold 12,950,000 shares in the company on the 12th September 2017 at a price of 590.00p. The Director now holds 96,436,045 shares.

Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
Director deals data provided by www.directorsholdings.com

[bigbertie] 12/9/2017 09:08

Perhaps someone has assumed that this placing is (like most others) new shares and will therefore dilute eps and maybe dividends? The fall in share price is almost the same percentage as the quantity of shares placed!

I am assuming that the shares placed were included in eps calculations and dividend payouts while held by Bridgemere & the Foundation - is this right?

Edit - it looks like the 2 holders are (very sensibly) planning to diversify their portfolios. However in the current market this will probably be interpreted as "calling the top of the housing market". So it's either a warning sign or a buying opportunity.............hmmm

[spob] 12/9/2017 08:45

only selling some of his HUGE redrow holding

nothing wrong with seling some, if you hold that many shares

[thaiger] 12/9/2017 08:02

Why the share price dropped so much?

[thorpematt] 12/9/2017 07:42

Well that's handy. Nice opportunity to buy some discounted stock.

Sometimes as a PI it's a bit easier to seize in these opportunities than it is is for those trading in larger volumes.

[adamb1978] 05/9/2017 21:04

Looking at their medium term guidance again, which implies EPS of almost 95p, it put them on Jun-20 PE in the region of 7x, so in effect this if pricing in a recession. Assuming no recession and an incredibly undemanding PE of say 10, there's 50% upside in this over the next 3 years. Remains a long-term hold for me

[adamb1978] 05/9/2017 07:50

Yep, very decent results, PE of around 9x for the year just finished.

I liked the 3 year guidance - around 30%-35% earnings growth over three years and, given that that guidance will err on the side of caution, means that at least 10% EPS growth p.a. for the next 3 years should be comfortably achieved.

Also pleased to see a meaningful reduction in net debt given that I'd rather that they were sitting on a net cash balance when the economy turns, whenever that will be.

All good though and pleased to see the share price reacting as well

[thorpematt] 05/9/2017 07:20

Yes easily beating forecast and very positive outlook will be popular with markets I suspect. Broker upgrades to follow me thinks.

[aimingupward2] 05/9/2017 07:11

Really excellent set of figures this morning, not least the major hike in the dividend payout - much bigger than I had dared hope for. A very confident outlook, too, over the next few years, even to the extent of forecasting a near doubling of the dividend by 2020. You have to be very confident to do that !