Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[gfrae] 26/2/2022 17:20

As in WW1 and WW2.

[p49b] 26/2/2022 17:13

I think in trying to guess what is going on we may look at the maxim 'Who gains the most?'
My take on developments so far would be the USA.
1. The stopping of NS2
2. Future sales of LNG from USA to Europe.
3. The shock to the system for European Security.
4. Europe will have to spend a LOT more money for its own defence.
5. USA can not afford the financial promises made in previous decades
and its focus going forward will be the Pacific.
6. The chance to hobble Putin both financially and militarily by sucking him in
to a conflict. After all USA has got itself in to that position the last decades
and it ruins the finances of a nation.
7. Germany has been criticised for to much dependance on Russia for its Gas.Russia can sell its Gas to China but then Russia will become dependant on China and the Chinese will want a discount.
Has Putin be played here.? He has been at the top of Russian politics for more than 20 years, thats a long time for a high pressure job. In his recent appearances he sits a long way from his colleagues, I wonder if he has the leader complex and he identifies to much with his historic place and is taking to many risks.?

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2022 17:07

One final thought as all this pans out, some of those that shall remain namless who have shown themselves to be disingenuous to shareholders and have increasingly milked staggering sums out of Raven over the years are probably very well connected and could easily be persuaded to become complicit in the changing political landscape of Russias mafia style of governance and dark circle of businessmen. So many assets taken so many false accusations and fake legal trials, so much wealth tgats changed hands for fractions of true worth, so much stolen.

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2022 16:30

Money can still flow, it will just have to go through a daisy chain of banks starting with countries that have non sanctioned banks with direct links to Russian banks who can exchange into the different currencies and daisy chain through partner banks, so it will be a lot more complicated and expensive and take longer to get the money out. There's no reason for anyone to stop the money reaching the UK from what I can see. The real problem is will Putin allow the money to leave Russia, allow foreign companies finance, allow unfriendly foreign ownership to continue. He has made himself the most hated man in the world, he's a true despot now, history tells us people like this are hard to get rid of and they become increasingly dangerous and extreme. I don't think your worry should be lack of swift, it should be Putin.

[montyhedge] 26/2/2022 15:14

Strange no one can answer my question, perhaps no one knows.We all know next payment ok, it's the future if and a big if, Russia off Swift.

[tag57] 26/2/2022 15:10

Italy said they will support Russia taken out of SWIfT. Not sure Germany will stand firm if the rest of the EU are putting pressure on them

[montyhedge] 26/2/2022 14:28

I know no problem this payment, I'm talking about going forward. Simple question if off Swift, would future payments be secure. I don't think it will will come to a swift off, Germany Hungary, Italians on the fence.

[hpcg] 26/2/2022 14:20

Link for donating to the Ukrainian army:



I realise this might not align with everyone that might have an interest in this instrument, but on the other hand just think how much these would go up if Putin left the playing field?

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2022 14:19

Jeez monty do you not have the attention span to read the thread more than half a dozen posts, Kenny has already suggested they have a significant sterling balance to pay immediate dividends!

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2022 14:15

Apparently Hungary gave the president a pledge this morning to switch swift off and the former president has just suggested everyone has agreed in the EU so it sounds like swift will not be opening on Monday for the Russians. Hope so!

[montyhedge] 26/2/2022 14:13

Kenny who know this company inside out, get his thoughts, would they pay Pref if Russia out of Swift ?

[montyhedge] 26/2/2022 14:09

Germany and particular Hungary no chance I would have thought. Could not afford to.

[waterfall city] 26/2/2022 14:00

How important is wheat and corn in all this, long term the worlds growing population needs feeding.

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2022 13:37

Thanks Kenny clearly your remaining calm. A difficult thing to do when putting your money into a violent mafia state with nuclear weapons.

[irish_neris] 26/2/2022 13:36

Italy are agreeing to boot them off swift according to Bloomberg

[montyhedge] 26/2/2022 12:33

KennyWhat's your thoughts on Swift, I don't think they will take Russia off Swift, because Germany, Hungary, Italy would be hit and want to keep Russia in.But if they did, would Raven still be able to pay the Pref coupons?

[stemis] 26/2/2022 11:42

Possibly one of the reasons for the timing of Putin's move on Ukraine is the strength of oil and gas prices which should ensure some protection from Russian finances from Western sanctions.

Ultimately Putin needs some sort of peace, either through a negotiated settlement or a viable replacement puppet government. A long term guerilla war or armed occupation (bearing in mind the population of Ukraine is 44m, nearly a 1/3 of that of Russia) isn't sustainable by him...

[zangdook] 26/2/2022 01:40

All he needs to do is put in place a government which agrees a constitutional amendment declaring neutrality, and then (maybe the tricky part) ensuring that no subsequent government reneges on that. It seems tricky to me, but he's not a man who acts without a plan.

He's probably calculated that if he can permanently remove the perceived threat from Ukraine, in time the sanctions etc will be lifted; maybe not in his lifetime, but that's not the timescale he's working on.

[kenny] 26/2/2022 00:28

Your questions and my comments:

Q. Do you think Kenny they can remain solvent and refinance in the likely medium and longer term decline of the economy there in the absence of regime change?

Comment: Yes. Russia has already announced they will provide their banks with liquidity. As Russia has $640B in reserves, mostly held in gold, I do not think Russia has a financial problem.

Q. Do you think they can avoid retaliatory sanctions from Moscow?

Comment: I cannot see why Russia would sanction a property company?

A side note on sanctions. In history, when have sanctions worked? The only historic case of sanctions working is South Africa and even there a) it is not clear sanctions were in fact the reason S.A. was done in and b) even if it was sanctions that did in S.A., it took over two decades for them to really bite and c) S.A. did not have the oil, gas and material reserves that Russia has. In no other case have sanctions brought down a regime.

Q. Do you think the west will forget about this and return to the status quo again?

Comment: No, this is a total change. NATO will be considerably strengthened and Russia under Putin and his billionaire clique will be permanently excluded from the West. Little point in having billions if you can only visit China and other such countries with your fancy cars and boats.

Q. It really feels like a watershed moment to me, there will be good long term careers in the army now stationed in Eastern Europe, it won't be easy to forget long term imo.

Comment: I agree this represents a turning point in World history. However, I also think while we may have a cold war type status, I doubt it will last for quite so long. Russians themselves will rise up. Look at the recent revolts in Belarus – violently put down - as an early sign. I think Ukraine will open Russians minds to what is being done in their name in a county with close ties and relations living in Ukraine. Look at how the Russian army is being careful to avoid heavy civilian casualties - which is not usual for Russia, in its moves against other countries.

Putin thinks Ukraine is the puppet state it was until about 30 years ago and that is his biggest mistake. If you are Ukrainian, you have had 30 years of freedom, so are not going to want to go back to being controlled by a foreign state. If Putin succeeds in putting in a puppet government, its’ not going to be long before 44 million Ukrainians rise up and throw them out. In other words, a repeat of what happened with the Maiden revolt in Ukraine.

End game is Putin is removed by Russians as he cannot hold a country as large as Ukraine – especially with the West supplying arms and other support to rebel groups against any puppet government Russia installs. It may actually lead to a very different government in Russia - and Russia then withdrawing from Ukraine, Georgia and all other foreign states where it is currently meddling. Only reason this may not arise is if China really supports Putin.

[my retirement fund] 25/2/2022 23:18

Do you think Kenny they can remain solvent and refinance in the likely medium and longer term decline of the economy there in the absence of regime change? Do you think they can avoid retaliatory sanctions from Moscow? Do you think the west will forget about this and return to the status quo again ? It really feels like a watershed moment to me, there will be good long term careers in the army now stationed in Eastern Europe, it won't be easy to forget long term imo.

[kenny] 25/2/2022 19:34

I am here and watching everything.

As far as I can see, the banking sanctions do not effect the company e.g. it does not effect banking transactions where neither party is in the USA, Europe, UK etc. They are similar to those introduced in 2014.

In relation to dividends, bear in mind that the company holds more than 2 years worth of coupons in cash. I believe most of that cash is not held in roubles and further not held in any account in Russia. In any event, restrictions on companies only apply where more than 50% of the equity is owned by one or more on Putin's cronies.

[my retirement fund] 25/2/2022 18:47

Kenny's gone very quiet?

[rayg5] 25/2/2022 12:34

But Putin wil find a ready market for its oil and gas in China.

[rayg5] 25/2/2022 12:28

I suspect Swift may be the key to this. I cannot see widespread economic damage to Russia. The best outcome, of course, is an overthrow of the illicit Putin regime.