Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 28/2/2022 10:29

RAV generally bubbles around 30p, and now it's down 50%. RAVP, which is more secure (fwiw) generally bubbles around over £1, and now it's down substantially more than 50%. So anyone with RAV and thinking of holding on might be advised to switch.

[hpcg] 28/2/2022 10:26

PIs aren't quick enough to sell bond like instruments IMO, myself included, in the past, I hope. The rewards are small and it is much more difficult to come back from a wipe out than with equities. Positions at risk need to be sold with just a few percentage points loss and no more. This is still just a falling knife and even 24p of reserved distributions turns to nothing if the assets are taken as they will be swept up by the most senior debt.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 09:49

It's a real company, with real assets. Sadly, located in a pariah state.

Wonder if the connected parties who took the Invesco low-ball placing managed to completely sell out - suspect they did, going by the trades in subsequent months.

Endgame for Russia/Ukraine hard to predict, but difficult to see foreign shareholdings surviving - POLY, a FTSE100 constituent, down another 50% this morning, and that's a gold producer.

[george stobart] 28/2/2022 09:43

when is the official delisting date for this russian scam?

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:14

Off to golf, see you later, see if 30p, suspended or what anyones guess.

[adae] 28/2/2022 09:10

BBC reporting a 5km column of tanks & armoured personnel carriers heading towards Kiev. Putin doubling down.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:07

You can't have a brain.

[adrian noble] 28/2/2022 09:06

Monty can't even lie effectively.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 09:02

Kenny our Raven expert any thoughts, should they suspend the shares and pref until news known, or ride it out.

[cc2014] 28/2/2022 08:59

Russian base rate raised by 10.5% to 20%

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:57

Yes you are right.

[mwj1959] 28/2/2022 08:57

And if this is the situation for the Prefs the Ords are worthless.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:57

Lol the idiots out today.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:56

Lol get a life.

[stockstockham] 28/2/2022 08:56

"montyhedge - 25 Feb 2022 - 11:10:11 - 1484 of 1572
Been in this for 11 years, economic downturns 2014 invasion. Always paid out every 13 weeks.
All risk reward, I can’t get this yield for amount of risk anywhere else."

[chinese investor] 28/2/2022 08:54

Well ! Well ! Well !

montyhedge (POLY) 24 Feb 2022 - 11:04:32
Fingers crossed they keep Swift, then hopefully nice bounce.

montyhedge 28 Feb '22 - 08:45
Out of POLY when invasion started.
Thank goodness.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:54

Yes good point.

[mwj1959] 28/2/2022 08:52

I refer back to point 5 in my earlier post...

5. There is £679m of debt outstanding against an NAV at interims of £1.16bn. In terms of call on assets Prefs, of which there are 216m, are next in line in the capital structure. At 80p that is equivalent to £173m. Is that covered by assets if the portfolio had to be disposed of, particularly in a fire sale environment (lots of oligarchs would love to take the portfolio over if that were to occur given quality of assets).

What is the portfolio worth now? You would have to say a serious discount to the Interims NAV. Less than £679m, so a 40% haircut on an interim valuation where the rouble was significantly higher, and the Prefs have no underlying asset cover. The chances of that being the case are extremely high in my opinion.

This, unfortunately, is the reality. You invest at current levels and the risk of losing 100% is high in my opinion. And I suspect that the chances of being paid any dividends for the foreseeable future is extremely low.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:48

I would imagine rns soon from company.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 08:46

You have absolutely no shame.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:45

Out of Poly when invasion started. Thank goodness.

[montyhedge] 28/2/2022 08:44

Yes that's a point, the business model and profits not changed, of course the Russian/Ukraine and sanctions change things for Russia.But I would not touch until option money punt at 30p.Kenny, Raven expert any thoughts ?

[spectoacc] 28/2/2022 08:40

"Don’t guess what other investors do, get a life."

Rofl. The 79p is your own words copy/pasted. Presumably you've sold out of POLY too then?

[stun12] 28/2/2022 08:40

I wonder if Raven will consider paying future dividends in scrip to try and preserve its sterling balances. I'd hope they would adjust in some way for the bombed out share price...