Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[kenny] 23/7/2021 10:08

All of Thursday's trades were buys and yet the share price was marked down. I believe the reason was because there is still a overhang of persons who received RAVP shares in the placing and are looking to realise a quick profit.

How long this overhang will take to clear is a big unknown but it could be quite some time. It was a massive placing - in context of the average daily trading volume in RAVP. Hence, my view is that it will take a long time for all the placing shares to find firm holders albeit there has been a lot of net purchases in the last few months. Indeed, the overhang may last longer than most people's time period for holding an investment!

Meanwhile, warehouse rents in Moscow are reaching all time records. Some predictions are that rents will increase by 8% or 9% by the end of this year. That type of increase would really help the RAVP coupon to become even more secure, irrespective of the rouble's continuing weakness. Obviously, it takes time for rental increases to fully work their way into an increase in income for the whole portfolio of properties - about 4 years for this company as that is their average remaining length on current leases.

Interim results in late August or early September may reflect some management confidence - about rents and vacancies, offset by the increase in interest rates in Russia - and help to clear some, perhaps not all, of the remaining overhang.

[zangdook] 22/7/2021 16:07

It's not surprising. When there's blood on the streets, you sell assets which have somehow retained their value in order to pick up bargains.

[montyhedge] 22/7/2021 15:49

Not one buy trade today, all sells.

[kenny] 06/7/2021 11:03

The point I was indicating in post 1054 above is expanded below.

It takes 75% of preference share holders who vote, to vote to redeem RAVP; at any price. Following the placing of the Invesco holdings, Quilter Investors now holds 31.7% of the preference, so can block any redemption on their own. In my opinion, Quilter would block any lowball redemption because although they hold the ordinary class as well, by far their biggest financial investment is in the preference class: RAVP.

I also believe that it was they that insisted that the Articles be changed so that, even if the company is taken over, the stock exchange quote for RAVP will be maintained.

[cc2014] 05/7/2021 12:46

I suspect we are going to have to put up with stock rotating from weak holders who got them cheap in the Invesco placing to new stronger holders for some time yet.

The price action seems to imply a natural course of events. As the price is slowly moving up, the weak sellers let a few more go.


119p still looks great value to me. For some very odd psychological reason I actually quite like the price down here. If the share price moved to 145p I'd have to start dithering about whether to sell, which would be annoying as really they are worth 160p+

[holts] 05/7/2021 12:18

It seems simply the unpredictable Putin is the barrier , just suddenly coming up with edicts that come from nowhere , the latest nonsense with Champagne illustrates in a very minor bu5 adequate way the problem .

[igbertsponk] 05/7/2021 08:59

Think they've only lost the Russia bit on the quoted company.
The trading operations sensibly retain it.

[zangdook] 05/7/2021 08:48

I see we've tactfully forgotten to tell them we changed our name.

[igbertsponk] 05/7/2021 08:04

And the original

[igbertsponk] 05/7/2021 08:00

Bit of news

[kenny] 05/7/2021 07:44

Still lots of shares looking for firm holders- coming from the Invesco placing.

[flyfisher] 05/7/2021 07:16

A lack of faith in the directors would contribute to the high yield.

[rayg5] 05/7/2021 05:46

Yes, Kenny, you've mentioned that threshold before. Very reassuring and of course we know that the directors have loads of Prefs. I really don't understand why the yield is still as high as it is. Russia under Putin is a strong economy. We in the west might not like the regime but the ordinary Russians look beyond the endemic corruption. The official view in Europe is a bit sniffy but that's reflected in the high yield.

[kenny] 04/7/2021 20:30

Yes. As is any question of redemption - because it requires 75% of those voting to approve. Look at the holders of preference and ordinaries to appreciate that redemption is not going to occur.

[rayg5] 04/7/2021 17:30

...which implies that the par value is irrelevant?

[rik shaw] 04/7/2021 16:44

The redemption value is (i) the Fixed Amount (being £1)and (ii) a sum equal to all arrears and accruals of the Preference Dividend

[kenny] 03/7/2021 19:23

Some were issued at 100p and some at 132p.

[rayg5] 03/7/2021 16:28

1p...but what were these prefs issued at, Kenny?

[kenny] 03/7/2021 15:54

Just to remind everyone that par value is 1p per share!

[rayg5] 03/7/2021 15:00

I also note that the Invesco sell off didn't result in the bulk of holders having any opportunity to buy below par.I don't see any support for such a cynical move as disposing to a buyer or redeeming at par.

[rayg5] 03/7/2021 14:50

I think buying back or transferring the Prefs at par would not be popular. They would need a vote at an EGM. That would be a slap in the face if it were to go through.

[my retirement fund] 03/7/2021 10:49

Well they could sell the entire business to another business allowing redemption of the prefs at par for example, yes Invesco could have but then invesco obvously are not interest in sweating it out for the extra millions doing so, its pocket change to them and an exit from some complicated set-up with assets in Russia was probably something they could do without

[hindsight] 03/7/2021 09:48

MRF agree but Invesco could have feed the shares in at a higher price than they got offered from the BoDs.

[rayg5] 03/7/2021 09:14

How would you see their greed and opportunism affecting RAVP?