Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 08/4/2021 08:46

And another tiny sign of blue. Hope springs eternal...

[my retirement fund] 07/4/2021 23:18

Is is possible to send dividends directly to Alexei Navalny Or script dividends please? Thanks.

[my retirement fund] 07/4/2021 23:17

Hi please advise who I can transfer my dividends to Alexei Navalny Thanks?

[king suarez] 07/4/2021 22:18

For those with an interest in fixed income/high yield - I have covered STCM in a private investor podcast today. You might find the analysis of interest:

[king suarez] 07/4/2021 22:18

For those with an interest in fixed income/high yield - I have covered STCM in a private investor podcast today. You might find the analysis of interest:

[montyhedge] 07/4/2021 15:38

Start of new Isa tax year, 12p tax free in Isas.

[igbertsponk] 07/4/2021 15:02

Life... anyone would think it was a new tax year and the ISAs were filling...

[montyhedge] 07/4/2021 14:46

We know this patient will soon be running marathons. Ridiculous low price.

[cwa1] 07/4/2021 14:28

Wow. A HINT of a flicker up from WING. Almost as if the patient has still got faint signs of life :-)

[cassini] 06/4/2021 16:22

Fly,

IMB and BATS in the 'sin stock' category.

DGOC as mentioned, but 'may' be subject to US withholding tax at 15% if held in an ISA but it's 0% in a SIPP. I say 'may' in inverted commas as there is some confusion on the subject...

[stun12] 06/4/2021 12:55

MNG also worth a look on the divi front.

[zangdook] 06/4/2021 11:52

This site will give you the current yields on FTSE350 and Investment Trusts. Quite a few over 6%.



If you want specific suggestions, PHNX and LGEN haven't been mentioned yet.

[pogue] 06/4/2021 11:52

BOI is around 6.3%, obviously DYOR not a recommendation to buy etc

[montyhedge] 06/4/2021 11:47

fly
GSK ord shares 6.21% paid quarterly.

[king suarez] 06/4/2021 11:39

flyfisher - look at STCM and DGOC

[flyfisher] 06/4/2021 11:28

I am in process of switching a part of my portfolio to income and would be interested in any other situation which yield 6%+.

Any suggestions?

Thanks.

[cc2014] 06/4/2021 11:21

It's interesting because the general perception is that the money priting after the 2008 financial crises did not lead to inflation. I've seen this printed in the Economist for example.

But the facts don't bear out the perception. Here is a link to CPI. I've used CPI as it ignores house prices but if you want to use RPI no matter.



What we see is that after a suitable lag period for the money priting to build up and enter the economy inflation went from -1% to 5% in the space of about 18 months and then stayed well above the target rate for another 18 months.

Many people seem to have forgotten the Head of the BOE having to write to the Chancellor month after month as inflation was over target.


I'm expecting something similar again. A huge spike up in inflation as we are allowed to spend, followed by a fall back as tax rises start to bite.


Having said all my entry on RAVP is 103p average so that's about 11% yield. If it comes to pass I lose 3% capital a year 8% is still great. Even if I lose 6% capital a year I can cope. I believe there's a decent chance given the share price has been so bashed about by Invesco, the share price won't fall or may even creep up a little.

And if I've got it all wrong and inflation doesn't occur, instead I'll be collecting my dividend and the share price will definitely go up.

[rahosi] 06/4/2021 10:16

2 x 4931 buys @ 160.5 ??

[pogue] 06/4/2021 10:14

Kenny
your reading of the subject via your chosen view makers before Xmas led you to believe there would be no inflation your were very adamant on that, now your sources say there will be a little. I think you need to change your information sources or at least challenge their ideas. From your quote I assume you are believing a bit of Keynesian spend when times are bad, increase taxes when times are good to pay for it, is what is going on if so then you are being over optimistic this is way past that, money is being created for everything and handed out like water indiscriminately not targeted. As I said above the velocity of money is going to increase, inflation is the objective by the ruling classes just now and they are going to make it happen but they think they are smart enough to be able to control it, I dont think they are as politicians in my experience generally are as thick as mince and only worried about getting re elected regardless of what happens to the country.

[kenny] 06/4/2021 01:49

"A second misconception is that inflation is a consequence of excessive money creation. Here too the evidence points the other way."

[pogue] 05/4/2021 15:37

Cassini
depending on who you read the statements of central banks etc there are plans afoot to increase the velocity of money. As I said earlier digital currency is coming but before that there will be negative interest rates, all the central banks are preparing for them just look at what they are saying and doing, that will drive money out of banks and create inflation, inflation is the objective right now. The problem is that its not controllable.
On top of that at some point a universal basic payment will become the norm thus putting more velocity on money as the poor will spend it as fast as they can to improve their living standards. Again listen to what politicians are saying and doing as they raise the minimum working wage and even the Tories are handing out money like water just now, and I cant see how they can stop as there is going to be large parts of the population ruined by the lockdowns people are becoming dependent on handouts. We are moving to a whole new world where inflation is perceived as good by the central banks and governments and a way out of the massive debts they are running up.
Yes I do see the great reset coming, I see the words being said by central banks and government increasingly proving this.

Kenny
the consensus of opinion in the places you look, if you choose to believe them fine I tend to read a lot wider. I expect inflation way above 2% from the simple fact that you cannot print infinite amounts of money and not get inflation unless all laws of economics are suspended. I dont see that happening as in the past all fiat currencies have collapsed why is it different this time? Regards the actual rate of inflation that is irrelevant as once it starts going its going to be difficult to stop anyone predicting the actual number is guessing and I cant be bothered doing that.

[cassini] 05/4/2021 14:16

pogue,

I wasn't implying higher interest rates were necessarily a problem - they are too low at the moment, screwing over savers and encouraging people to run up/roll over debt. I'm only interested in what direction interest rates will actually go and what that means.

I'm still betting they will stop going up fairly soon and settle back under that 40 year trendline.

One important parameter to keep an eye on is the real rate of inflation - interest rates minus inflation. If inflation is above the interest rate we are still losing money on savings for instance. Gold does well when the real rate of interest is negative.

Stocks do OK with a little bit of inflation, in the 2-3% region (according to a scatter plot I saw of returns versus inflation rates) but perform progressively worse as inflation gets higher.

All this money printing does not necessarily lead to inflation unless it ends up being spent, by which I mean the velocity of money must rise, otherwise the money just sits around building up bubbles in things (property, bitcoin, shares etc). I heard that the money injected into the system for the Financial Crisis in 2009 didn't lead to inflation as the velocity of money crashed. Last I saw (recently) the velocity of money is still declining.

Not that that necessarily means the stimulus money won't find its way to the surface one day. More immediately, I wonder if all that pent up savings money people have found difficult to spend over the lockdown period may find its way into the economy more rapidly and be the cause of a rise in the velocity of money and hence inflation?

Perhaps we really will have a Great Reset and a new Bretton Woods X agreement where all the main countries sit around a table one day and agree to shaft us all by some coordinated revaluation of money (default) or whatever. Borrowers get lucky, savers, not so much. I still think gold has a part to play in a modern day portfolio (or BitCoin, if you don't mind the rollercoaster ride).

[kenny] 05/4/2021 13:46

As I stated in post 895 above:

“The consensus in current commentary is that we will have inflation. To read the majority of articles, you would get the impression that we are going to have roaring inflation like the 1970’s.

While this commentary gives the above impression, very few state an actual projected rate of inflation. One that did, very recently, talked about inflation potentially reaching 2% in the UK by the end of this year.”


Many are writing about “inflation coming” or “high inflation coming” but very few quantify what that rate of inflation will likely be. If, for example, inflation reaches the heady highs of 3%, I am quite happy to continue to hold all of my fixed income holdings. I have got quite a lot of fixed income yielding just under 6% and would be happy to hold all of that even if inflation reaches 6% or slightly more.

The other problem with current commentary, is that no one opines whether this predicted inflation is going to be a) a blip or, b) how long it is going to last.

I am a long-term holder of fixed income; therefore, I am not going to be easily convinced to sell some of my holdings. Indeed, it was interesting to read that in February the highest amount of money flowing into funds, was invested into funds specialising in fixed income.

[pogue] 05/4/2021 12:09

cassini
interest rates are not the problem inflation is. Why would you buy fixed interest if inflation is raging, you buy shares as fixed income is losing you money. The question you must ask is unlimited QE going to make a difference to inflation? Some believe the laws of economics are broken and we wont others think hyperinflation is a possibility and all things in between. Personally I expect high inflation though we will avoid the hyper part as what is happening just now is all part of the move to digital currency issued by central banks and that is not a pleasant outcome if you do some research. The FED are talking about going digital more and more so it is coming.

[cassini] 05/4/2021 04:40

I saw a chart today showing the US 30Y Treasury bond and the decline in its interest rate since about 1980.

One can draw a couple of pretty convincing straight declining trendlines on the chart of the 30Y, the top and bottom of the channel.

The 30Y has just hit the top trendline of the channel. It'll be interesting to see if rates will continue up much further or bounce back off the trendline. A few tenths of a percent more rise won't mean much but any more than that would mark a sea-change.

Personally I think the trendline will pretty much hold - it's very hard to break a 40 year trend. Plus, for all the reasons given in the last post.

So, if rates start to retreat again but inflation rises, shares (and gold) should benefit.