Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[renewed1] 14/4/2021 08:37

Blimey Monty one of us went to the wrong school!!!!

[zangdook] 14/4/2021 08:16

I would put that more or less the other way around. If you look at which side has been actively hostile to the other, it's always the US; the MIC needs Russia to be an enemy to justify their budgets and wars and over-extension. I take the Russians at their word when they say they'd like to have better relations - otoh look at the fuss when candidate Trump said the same thing. As for democracy in Russia, do you seriously question that Putin would easily win a perfectly free election? The fiddles that go on are not necessary for him to win; they're to show that he controls everything, so no-one else need bother trying.

[kenny] 14/4/2021 00:07

Looks like Biden's proposal of a summit meeting to Putin has lead to a drastic reversal of the downtrend in the rouble. Let's hope it continues.

However, I agree that Putin, for domestic reasons, needs the US to be an enemy. Without a big threat/enemy to Russia, Putin may believe the chances of democracy emerging in Russia increases, therefore becoming a danger to his continuation in power.

[montyhedge] 13/4/2021 11:28

It's funny some investors don't like risk, understandably, I had these for 11 years, seen then down to 95p, they never ever missed a payment even then. Friend of mine wants high yield, but said oh no not Russia, so it's what your risk appetite is. He had IAG at 602p for 7% yield, now no dividend and loss two thirds of his capital. Russia not to bad a place to be.

[cc2014] 13/4/2021 11:17

Haha Monty. I'm in the same place as you. Really not bothered about the share price in that I shall keep hold of these regardless as where else can I get this sort of yield at this level of risk.

I do feel slightly aggreieved about the share price as I feel 135p better reflects where it should be but even then that would make no difference to me as it would take a share price of around 160p to tempt me to sell and whilst the chart shows me that is possible it's something to write about in passing rather than seriously contemplate.

Indeed and this may sound perverse but I'd rather the share price doesn't get to 160p and then I don't have to make any decisions. I can just keep collecting the great dividend.

[montyhedge] 13/4/2021 10:47

If seller out, won't take much to move this to 125, Investors Chronicle have tipped them in the past, a tip somewhere then 125 - 130 if the seller out. But not bothered 12p a year 9.58% at 115, I can't get that anywhere else.

[cc2014] 13/4/2021 10:03

Looks like the seller at around 113 is finally exhausted. Hurrah

[igbertsponk] 12/4/2021 15:01

Good to see some growth

[deadly] 12/4/2021 13:44

must be the Putin effect, the more nasty he is the more they like him.

[zangdook] 12/4/2021 08:28

That doesn't stop people selling down current holdings in the expectation of receiving placing shares in due course.

[gfrae] 12/4/2021 08:23

The placing has not, as yet, taken place.

[kenny] 11/4/2021 23:43

Boystown - I think the problem is the placing of the Invesco shares means there are lots more RAVP shares looking for a home than the market can absorb over a short period. Therefore, it will take time for those placing shares to find their way into the hands of firm holders. How long this process will take is unknown.

[my retirement fund] 11/4/2021 20:03

Well if Putin really starts loosing it, then the west will make a more serious effort to relegate Russia to the basket cases such as North Korea and then surely its very possible.

[boystown] 11/4/2021 18:25

But that's not new? The Ukraine situation doesn't look good, but would that cause the prefs not to be paid out?

[my retirement fund] 11/4/2021 18:04

Not so much Russia but Putin, the guy is a magalomaniac and you simply don't know who he's going to posion next.

[boystown] 11/4/2021 17:01

So at a buy price of 115p, these prefs are yielding 10.43% and the underlying investment is at a 30% discount to NTAV, and operationally profitable right?

So what's the catch? Is it simply "Russia"?

[kenny] 11/4/2021 01:26

"Historic pandemics data provide warning for owners of capital"
Bad news for rich people but records show natural rate of interest declines for decades


You may need a subscription to the FT to read the above article, published 10 April, but below is an extract:

"Not good news for rich people, but “following a pandemic, the natural rate of interest declines for decades, reaching a nadir about 20 years later, with the natural rate about 150bp [1.5 percentage points] lower had the pandemic not taken place”.

That “natural rate” has also shown a secular decline over the centuries, from about 10 per cent in medieval times, to 5 per cent at the start of the industrial revolution in the west, to near 0 per cent today."


The article references this Federal Reserve study which shows pandemics lead to low interest rates for decades, whereas wars lead to high interest rates in the following 30-40 years:

[cc2014] 09/4/2021 11:16

I think you raise a good point Uncle Sam that any investor buying fixed interest pref shares should carefully consider the impact of capital gains or losses.

I don't own any other pref shares as I think they are all overpriced when my perception of capital losses are factored in. I appreciate others may have different views on where interest rates are likely to go but for me there are far too many private investors chasing yield and buying on headline yields. It is a difficult time for private investors looking for decent fixed interest returns because central bank policy has squashed yields so much and almost everything looks expensive to em.


In your case sadly you paid too much but nothing can be done about that now. Your decision process now is whether at 115p they are likely to go up or down and if you feel they will go down whether it is so slowly that the coupon outweighs this.

My personal view is that RAVP has been hammered by the Woodford/Invesco fiasco and very slowly the share price will creep up even against a background of rising gilt yields. I think 125p not unreasonable in a years time and a slow continued climb in the share price above that in due course.

I'm not really that bothered though. If the share price fell 3% a year for the next few years I'd still get a mighty return overall. I would of course much prefer the share price went back to 160p at which time I'll almost certainly be selling.

[stemis] 09/4/2021 10:46

I've held these 10 years (got some through Raven Mount) at 111.6p. A 10 year IRR of 10.75% is fine.

[uncle_sam] 09/4/2021 10:43

Well lucky you.

[riskvsreward] 09/4/2021 10:41

It is true if you bought the whole lot at 138p and hold it through time. It is another matter if like me you bought in many lots at price range of 101 to 140 p.

[uncle_sam] 09/4/2021 10:31

I have held a fair sized chunk of these for more than 5 years. Yes, the divi is good and is paid on time. My concern, however, is the lack of any capital appreciation whatsoever. Over 5 years the share price has slumped steadily from circa 138 to 115 (yeah, yeah, I know it is not a "growth" stock, and there are minor ups & downs at divi time or market crash, and the UK market itself has not been very robust either, etc.) This is not an option. So one must factor in the 3.5% average annual shrinkage in this "investment".

[eeza] 08/4/2021 09:53

Yes, monty gets 3p every quarter.