Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 29/10/2012 22:19

Congrats RMM, a long path but a steady one. I would like to think all the hard work will now be rewarded.

[hiddendepths] 29/10/2012 16:28

People have clearly been buying ahead of this RNS and some of them have been selling now. However, the buying has easily handled the profit-taking, which is a great sign in this market.

This is the point on the normal curve in a company's evolution where the share price can be expected to rise severalfold over 12-18 months. Even if some of the optimistic cashflow hopes are not fully met, I don't see why that shouldn't be the case here.

Sitting tight and would buy more if funds permitted.

[ned] 29/10/2012 09:48

It looks like George and team were always on track and production stoppage was planned.

Time for holders to relax and look forward to next production update.

[kiwimonk] 29/10/2012 09:38

Good Progress continuing. Into the 40's and upwards imminently. Good Work RMM.

[chipperfrd] 29/10/2012 09:22

Well done Rambler!

Delivering according to plan.

Looking forward to steady-state production going forward.
Chip

[snowydays] 29/10/2012 07:53

Just $12.5m revenue since May. Barely breaking even.

"Over the last
two weeks mill head grades have been averaging 4.5% copper with 1.7 g/t
gold"

That's much better! If those grades continue there will be reasonable cashflow. That should mean recovery of about 700 tonnes of copper and 600 oz of gold over a month, more once the tailings are processed. That is big money.

[fangorn2] 29/10/2012 07:40

Ming Mine Moves into Commercial Production


Off we go...

[snowydays] 25/10/2012 10:45

I just rewatched George Ogilvie in the interview where he argues for a tripling of Ramblers share price from it's 36p level.

Ogilvie suggests that the markets would see the value of Rambler after two quarters of copper concentrate production. When asked by the interviwer he says that two quarters of production will take us up to late October or early November.

We have now reached late October. Where is the evidence that Rambler is undervalued and generating the strong cashflows which Ogilvie promised? He had suggested that it would be clear that Rambler was on a pe ratio of 1.5, i.e. eps would be about 24p. Has that become clear to anyone?

This is what I mean when I say Rambler is not delivering.

[redhill] 23/10/2012 14:13

Snowydays

Sorry just using those figures as an example.

[snowydays] 23/10/2012 13:02

I doubt that the cash could increase by $6m overnight. Ramblers statements suggest they were raising invoices on a regular basis every few hundred tonnes when assay results were obtained.

I have not contacted the company about the blending issue as they have not replied to my emails in the past.

But the point is that we are all hoping for a significant re-rating. In my opinion that is unlikely to occur unless Rambler show that they can generate the large cashflows and profit which they have been promising. So far they have not achieved that.

[rogash] 23/10/2012 10:34

Despite all the sells, the price is holding up.So I assume somebody is adding quite a few.

[redhill] 23/10/2012 10:15

snowydays

You may be right but just because a cash figure one day is £6 milllion that doesnt take into account any payments due and a week later that figure could be £12 milllion. So relying on that for your assumptions is not accurate.

Have you contacted the company asking them why they are still blending in ore from the LFZ?

[snowydays] 23/10/2012 09:29

Yes Redhill, there is no explanation given foe the lower cash balance which suggests that there is none other than the fact that Rambler is just not producing enough to cover expenses.

But that is not the only evidence. We also have production figures and prediction up till the end of August. Even in good months they are showing just over 500 tonnes of copper equivalent. That is way below what was predicted. Also the head grades are low and Rambler are still blending in ore from the LFZ although we were told that the LFZ ore would just be used for early commissioning to give the operators experince of using the concentrator.

If you think it is just me complaining then I would also refer you to the predictions of Ramblers house brokers Seymour Pierce. They were predicting a small profit for 2012, which we now know has not happened, and they were predicting a full year of "commercial production" for 2013 with profits of 14p per share or £20m for the year, down from earlier predictions of 18p per share.

Those estimates will now have to be downgraded as it is clear that "commerecial production" will not be achieved until well into the year, and Rambler is so far not on course to deliver profits of £20m which would require production of about 800 tonnes copper equivalent per month.

Now let me ask you, and anyone else here a question. Why are Rambler still blending low grade LFZ ore with the 1807 ore thus producing a low head grade and barely producing enough to cover expenses?

Edit: I'll just add the brokers forecasts from Digital Look. These figures are in pounds. In my opinion they will have to be revised downwards again.

[redhill] 23/10/2012 08:01

Am i missing something here snowydays as i don't see how you can know what the present free cash flow is.The accounts only go up to 31/7 and i appreciate the cash balance is lower now but that is only a point in time and i didn't see an explanation as to why its lower.

To say that Rambler cannot deliver is premature to say the least.

[kiwimonk] 22/10/2012 17:09

Really! Well sell your stock if you own any.

"It's beginning to look as if Rambler cannot deliver" LOL

What Tripe!

[snowydays] 22/10/2012 16:27

Broker Seymour Pierce said Rambler Metals & Mining (LON:RMM, CVE:RAB) had made great progress with the completion of the copper concentrate facility at Nugget Pond, the finalising of an 85kt copper concentrate offtake agreement with Transamine and the construction of its 9.5kt concentrate storage facility at Goodyear's Cove.

A preliminary economic assessment into the bulk tonnage potential of Ming's Lower Footwall Zone also defined a pre-tax NPV of US$251 mln with an initial capex requirement of US$231mln.

A recent tally of the copper stockpile was approximately 5.5kt and Seymour Pierce expects Rambler to arrange the first shipment with Transamine soon due to the 4-6 week lead time per vessel.




Whatever Seymour Pierce might think I see only very slow progress. It is now over 5 months since the start of copper production, and yet Rambler is only just breaking even in terms of cashflow. I sayt breaking even as Rambler is only receiving 90% upfront. When the additional 10% is paid Rambler will just about be breaking even.

By now Rambler should be generating good cashflows. We were informed they would be $3m to $5m each month. When will they start? It is beginning to look as if Rambler cannot deliver.

[dassaco] 22/10/2012 11:48

Yes, I see that now. So the $28.2m went on the copper concentrator, ground works, consultancy etc.
Thanks for putting me right.
The sooner the mine is declared commercial the better.

[snowydays] 22/10/2012 11:17

No, you are completely wrong. The accounts for 2012 are finalised and there will be no alterations unless something is found to be wrong. That $28m will never be bookled towards profit and loss (which means that it will not count against Rambler's tax credits).

The important issue though is cash flow. It seems Rambler still has more money going out than coming in.

[dassaco] 22/10/2012 11:06

Results state: The Company generated first revenue of $28.2 million from its Ming Mine
project during the commissioning of the operation during fiscal 2012.
Ming Mine revenues were credited to the Mineral Properties asset and
will continue until commercial production is declared.

However as Philip Whiterow on Proactive Investors has pointed out this morning in an article:
"Revenue from Ming won't be booked though until the mine is declared commercial, meaning reported revenues fell to C$1.2 mln, from C$3.5 mln, while the net loss rose to C$3.4 mln from C$50,000. The $28.2 million of revenues were credited to the Mineral Properties asset."

So as I understand it, this $28.2m will be booked into next years results.

[snowydays] 22/10/2012 10:24

$25m by the end of 2012?

Perhaps that should have been $2.5m.

[p@] 22/10/2012 08:01

Don't forget-

During the year repayments of US$7,855,411 were made from the delivery
of 4,774 ounces of gold. The payments satisfies the requirements in the
gold loan agreement to repay a minimum of US$3.6 million in each of the
first two 12 month periods of production

[snowydays] 22/10/2012 07:56

Well those are rather worrying results.

Cash at July 31st was $7.8m but by October 19th it had reduced to $6.5m. That is going in the wrong direction.

[dassaco] 20/10/2012 14:54

KT, that was my initial thoughts too....calender 2012.
It will be interesting to see what they say on Nov 1st in Canada at the 2012 CIM Mineral Resource Review: Newfoundland and Labrador's premier mineral exploration and mining conference and trade show.