Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[dassaco] 20/10/2012 14:54

KT, that was my initial thoughts too....calender 2012.
It will be interesting to see what they say on Nov 1st in Canada at the 2012 CIM Mineral Resource Review: Newfoundland and Labrador's premier mineral exploration and mining conference and trade show.

[dassaco] 20/10/2012 10:18

Oops, sorry, I meant 31st July 2013, for Rambler's 2012 fiscal year.

[ned] 20/10/2012 08:59

Mercer seemed an intelligent chap to me and came across well, though he didn't go into a great deal of detail. I'm sure he checked out the interview before it went live or at least would have had it corrected by now if the pop up was incorrect.

There have been setbacks since then so we'll have to see how it all adds up and if it doesn't I'll think about asking him about the company policy on checking info others are putting out. But fingers crossed.

[snowydays] 20/10/2012 08:12

Well it can't have meant by 31st July 2012. We know that on 31st July Rambler had $7m or $7.8m in cash and Pete Mercer would have known that also. I interpreted it to mean the end of calendar 2012, although it may have been a simple misunderstanding on the part of BNN.

[dassaco] 19/10/2012 18:55

Thanks snowydays. Year end is July 31st 2013, so when it was stated only 9 days ago: "MERCER: RAMBLER WILL HAVE $25M IN FREE CASH AT END OF 2012", this means then by 31st July 2012 .That is still pretty good, I don't see why he would state that if he wasn't fairly sure he was going to meet the figure or exceed it. Time will tell.

(20th Oct Amendment/Correction typo error: I meant this to say "this means then by 31st July 2013")

These loans don't come cheap, so now they have the money it is probably worthwhile holding onto it. A small amount of gearing could be more beneficial than paying it off. They did state that "It is the company's intention to use a portion of these funds to buyout the royalty encumbrances held over the Ming Mine Property". Which seems to be what they have done so far with some of it, as they have bought out some of these, two I think to date, thereby adding shareholder value.

Should be lots of news and interest in the company soon, as Rambler seem to be planning on getting a higher profile than in the past, kicking off in the week after next. On their website, under events:

Nov 1 - Nov 3, 2012 CIM Mineral Resource Review 2012. St. John's, Canada
3.20-4.20 Teck, Anaconda and Rambler Metals & Mining Plc. Speaker TBC
Nov 16 - Nov 17, 2012 Hard Assets Investment Conference, San Francisco, USA
Dec 3 - Dec 7, 2012 Roadshow, London, England
Dec 4 - Dec 5, 2012 Mines and Money, London, England
Dec 6, 2012 AGM, London, England
Dec 6, 2012 Proactive Investors One to One Forum,London, England
Jan 20 - Jan 21,2013 Cambridge Vancouver Resource Investment Conference Vancouver, Canada

[snowydays] 19/10/2012 15:21

The $25m at year end is probably an optimistic figure. These were Ramblers forecasts for EBITDA for the 2013 financial year.



As we can see for the first two quarters (i.e. until the end of Jan 2013) they are predicting EBITDA of about $15m, so about $12m until the end of 2012. If we add that to the $7m cash they had at the end of July we get about $19m at year end. However that is using lower metals prices than current rates. so perhaps something over $20m is reasonable on those figures. We know however that Rambler did not meet their forecasts in August or September. Realistically then somewhere between $15m and $20m at year end looks likely.

That begs the question of why Rambler does not appear to be predicting repayment of the Sprott loan of at least $7.5m this year. Surely $10m in cash and free of the loan is better than $18m in cash and $8m in debt?

[dassaco] 19/10/2012 11:39

I have watched the video on BNN of Oct 10th with Peter Mercer.
They do quote him as saying that they will have $25m at year end. So I cant see why this should not be a true estimate. Maybe they will better it?
From what I understand, currently they can/are producing 20,000 tons of concentrate a year and their target is to produce 60 to 70,000 tons a year.
If the Free Cash at this year end will be $25m, what will be their Free Cash at year end 2013?
As their market cap is currently $75m, once the figures predicted are met, the company should be re-rated. Maybe they will pay a dividend or more likely invest in more mines.

[killing_time] 18/10/2012 19:33

We might get an up-to date cash update with the final results but i would expect a cash update with Q1 results in November which got me thinking if we will actually get Q1 results because we are not in commercial production yet.

If it is true that they will have around $25 million in cash ( pre- tax ) at year end then i am starting to feel that i have under estimated the strength of their cash generation especially as i am not expecting commercial production until December ( two hole months of production at 85%, Oct & Nov ) and also taking into account the lower production in September. KT.

[snowydays] 18/10/2012 18:34

Actually this raises an interesting point k_t. As you know Rambler published two versions of their latest presentation on the website. The first being removed after one day. This is what the first one said about the company's cash position.



And yet a day later the presentation showed the cashpile on July 31st as just $7m.

But either way, I hope they will give us a current update with the results. The cash pile should be increasing by up to $100k every day. In fact, on days when the shareprice is goimng nowhere I console myself with the thought that every day the cashpile gets a little bigger.

If they are going to reach the $25m mark by the end of 2012 cash should now be around $15m. In practice I am expecting a nice little windfall when the concentrate is shipped and processed. We have received a 90% payment, but with the rise in metals prices I think there is probably another 20% to come rather than another 10%.

[killing_time] 18/10/2012 16:48

Hi snowydays.

To your question on post 2052, " it will be good to see how much cash Rambler has."

The answer, on the 31st July Rambler had $7 million.

[snowydays] 17/10/2012 07:51

Wot No Results

[count chris] 16/10/2012 21:28

No I don't want any results or news. Look at the chart! Don't rock the boat.

[redhill] 16/10/2012 17:31

Looks like someone is accumulating as well.

[killing_time] 16/10/2012 15:08

Yep, also expecting first shipment to be announced by the end of this month.

[snowydays] 16/10/2012 11:50

Results out tomorrow perhaps? And an update to go with them? It will be good to see how much cash Rambler has.

[snowydays] 14/10/2012 10:59

Yes, that would be nice if it happens, although I did not actually hear Pete Mercer say that. Perhaps it should have said the end of the company year or something similar.

What disappointed me about that interview was:

a) The suggestion of a further fundraising in "1 year, or 2 years, or 5 years."
b) This obsession with developing the LFZ. It woudl be nice if he had just said that is something for the future, but he gave the impression that Ramblers management are determined to press ahead with the LFZ plans.


Shareholders should realise that the figures quoted for the PEA, i.e. a NPV of about $260m (I cant be bothered to check, I think it was about that) does not represent value added by expanding into the LFZ. That figure is for the NPV of the entire mine project, i.e. including the mining of the massive sulphides. As such the value added by the LFZ alone is quite small.

The same for the IRR. This is quoted at a far from exciting 18%, but that is for the entire project. The IRR for the LFZ expansion alone is probably nearer to 12% - 15%. That is very poor considering the risks involved.

The expansion plans also have a further flaw in that it would still leave Rambler with just one working mine and source of revenue.

On the other hand expansion by mergers and aquisitions gives added diversity and reduces risk. The suggestion of buying Ananconda has been raised. That would be a fairly cheap acquisition (market cap only about $30m) but would give Rambler two working mines each with their own mill. There are probably many other close to production mines suitable for takeover.

I believe that the sum of $231m (capex for expanding into the LFZ) could be far better spent elsewhere.

These two factors, the risk of a further fundraising and a highly risky proposed expansion which could destroy the company if there is a sustained fall in metal prices may be what is holding back the shareprice.

[killing_time] 11/10/2012 20:29

Hi snowydays.

Yep same interview, agreed the $25 million of free cash flow at the end of 2012 was a nice suprise.

[snowydays] 11/10/2012 18:28

Thanks for the link.

I was unable to play that video. If anyone else is having trouble watching it, what worked for me was to go to this link and then click the video titled "The Golden Shores of Newfoundland."



At the end of the video there is a caption that Pete Mercer says Rambler will have $25m of free cash at the end of 2012. Let's hope so.

[killing_time] 11/10/2012 16:48

With thanks to ManicMiner2 on iii for finding this interview with Peter Mercer on Business News Network.

[fangorn2] 09/10/2012 10:41

Rambler Buys Out 1% Net Smelter Royalty on the Ming Mine Property

[fangorn2] 09/10/2012 08:54

Hope it's not the same fund manager at Henderson who has been aggressively buying AST and OTC!!!

[redhill] 09/10/2012 07:22

Henderson's increasing their holding .

[bashers2] 05/10/2012 09:33

Crikey - a 25k sell and the share price didn't collapse! Things looking up!

[snowydays] 04/10/2012 18:39

The recent price rises on modest volume might give an indication of what could happen if a share buyback program is implemented.

I just clicked the link to the Stockhouse bulletin board in the header of this thread and there is an interesting mention of speculation of a merger coming from Anaconda Mining shareholders. Ananconda seem to be neighbours to Rambler on the Baile Verte Peninsular and seem to be a small mining outfit in a similar position to Rambler, i.e. at the start of production. As such they are unlikely to make a generous offer for Rambler.