Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[count chris] 19/7/2012 21:43

RHPS update:

RAMBLER METALS & MINING (RMM): Rambler has sold its first lot of 600 tonnes of copper concentrate from its Ming Copper-Gold Mine in Newfoundland. The buyer was Transamine Trading with whom Rambler has signed an off-take agreement.

Rambler has also announced that it has completed the C$4.13 million (£2.56m) investment by Tinma International, a subsidiary of a China-based Rambler shareholder, which I reported in the RHPS Update of 24 May. The new funds will be used for general working capital purposes and to repay a portion of the company's outstanding debt. After this investment, Tinma will have a stake of almost 16% in Rambler Metals. BUY UP TO 40p (Current Price 29.5p)

[count chris] 18/7/2012 19:08

Snowy days post 1884 - fair point a couple of month delay is much worse if it moves income into the next financial year - I learnt that already this year with SRT. I'm still positive about RMM though (and SRT) just need a bit of patience.

[snowydays] 17/7/2012 15:11

"Expected production in 2012 was 22,455t."

"monthly production target is c. 2,416t of concentrate"

So they should have started full scale production in March by those figures. They clearly have no chance of reaching the 22,455t figure for 2012.

[chipperfrd] 17/7/2012 13:12

As of 16th July they had produced 1,700t concentrate with another two weeks before their Financial year end.

Expected production in 2012 was 22,455t. 2013 is 29,000t.

So monthly production target is c. 2,416t of concentrate over a full year.

It is early for them to have reached production targets, but they already appear to be very close to it.

As they blend in more 1807 ore they will need to optimise the plant for that ore. So recoveries are bound to fluctuate until they reach commercial, steady-state, production levels over the next few months.

They look like they are doing a very good job as far as I can see.

[snowydays] 17/7/2012 12:35

""Our year ends on July 31. At the year end, we'll have two months' commissioning, and one month's copper production," Mercer said.

From an article in Metals Bulletin earlier this year. Don't tell me this is not a delay.

Chipperfrd, regarding the recovery levels. It was always predicted that ore from the LFZ would be much easier to process than the massive sulphide ores. This is clear in the PEA document. The point is that blending 1807 ore with the LFZ ore has led to quite a large drop in recovery. That suggests that the recovery from the 1807 part of the blended ore is lower than predicted, i.e. that at the present time we would only get recoveries of 85% - 90% from pure 1807 ore. I suspect that this is the main reason for the delays.

[bashers2] 17/7/2012 11:34

Snowydays - appreciate your knowledge on the subject and Rambler in particular, but everytime I read one of your posts I have the urge to stab myself in the face with a sharp pencil! :)

I say well done Rambler alo!

[chipperfrd] 17/7/2012 10:25

On May 30th they reported that commercial production would be in the second half of 2012 - so no surprise or delay as far as I am concerned.

They had forecast recoveries at 92.4% - so on target there as well at 92.5%.

Concentrate grade was forecast at 28% - so 29.7% is above target.

Very pleased with progress to date. Well done Rambler!

[snowydays] 17/7/2012 08:01

Very true Count, but that does not change the fact that this latest announcement is a delay, and is bad news. It is not a show stopper, but it is mildly bad news. Some posters though seem to see everything from Rambler through rose tinted spectacles. If you read the posts on the iii board some of them are having orgasms over this.

Falling in love with a share is usually a big mistake for investors.

For us as shareholders the delay could have consequences, e.g. the long awaited re-rating will probably also be delayed. In addition it means there will be no commercial production this financial year (ending this month) and therefore the accounts will show a loss. That means we will stay under the radar for those institutions and investors that reject loss making companies. Even looking quite a long way down the line, next years results will not now show a full 12 months of production. The headline profits next year will be much lower if there is only 8 months of productuion. Those investors who use filters to do searches for low PE value shares will simply see the 8 months eps figure and again Rambler may remain under the radar. The same for our 3 month and 6 month interims.

[count chris] 16/7/2012 21:59

I'm only a novice here but it seems to me pretty normal for AIM companies to experience delays - doubly so for miners. More of a problem for traders than investors assuming cash burn is under control.

[snowydays] 16/7/2012 19:16

The market seems to agree with snowydays.

But perhaps someone would like to explain how Rambler's progress is not disappointing in the light of this extract from an earlier RNS (10th Oct 2011).

"The Company anticipates being in a position to "live" test the plant with ore from the Lower Footwall Zone (LFZ) once the electrical contract is
complete. Live commissioning will take four to eight weeks before full production is possible."

The 4-8 weeks is now up but we are nowhere near full production. In fact "commercial production," however that is defined, is now promised sometime this year. A rather vague timescale.

Or how about these statements by Pete Mercer in an earlier interview:

"We're going to start copper concentrate production in mid-May.

After that, it will be a couple of months of announcements regarding optimisation, recoveries, through-put, etc. This brings us to the end of June. Our fiscal year-end is July.

Starting in August, which will be the first quarter of our fiscal year, we're going to have three full months of good concentrate production. We're expecting a good cash flow as long as everything goes as planned."

and

"Analysts are waiting for the balance sheet to show a good quarter of strong cash flow. Small mining companies usually trade on a cash-flow multiple of between three and four times for the year. So once investors see that strong quarterly balance sheet at the end of our first quarter next year, covering August, September and October, the share price will be reflective of this."



On the basis of their previous statements I believe we are entitled to have expected Rambler to be in full scale production by now.

[redhill] 16/7/2012 17:51

snowydays never fails to disappoint!

[killing_time] 16/7/2012 17:49

Just gone through the RNS, looks good to me.

snowydays, do not understand your comment about first revenue. In the RNS it says that 90% of provisional payment for lot 001 has been received.

Extra 400oz of gold was a nice bonus.
Should start to see a nice ramp up now with the 6% Cu being added from the 1870 zone this month.

Mill Av recovery rates should sort them self out as time goes by, still early in the start up but worth keeping an eye on.

Rambler have done good again imo. KT.

[snowydays] 16/7/2012 17:18

"Analyst Matthew McDonald highlighted that the firm remained on track to reach commercial production within the next few months, which he sees as the re-rating event for Rambler."

[snowydays] 16/7/2012 09:02

Things are clearly going badly. First revenues from copper production were expected in June, but we have only just sent the first bill in mid-July. In May the company reported that it had just 12,000 tonnes of low grade LFZ ore left and implied that higher grade 1807 ore would be used exclusively when that LFZ ore was finished. Now it seems they must have mined further LFZ ore to continue blending. Mill recovery rates, described as "exceptional" in May averaging 95% are now down to 92.5% with the addition of 1807 ore.

It was always known that the LFZ ore would be easier to process than 1807 ore, but it seems that the high grade ores are more difficult to process than Rambler had expected.

On the plus side, Rambler seem to be just about producing enough to cover expenses of $2.5m each month. At least that buys time to sort out the problems.

[tradermel] 16/7/2012 07:31

RNS



July 16, 2012

Rambler's First 600 Tonne Lot of Copper Concentrate Sold to Transamine

[ethelwalch] 16/7/2012 07:16

LOL, a mind reader too Snowydays. As it happens I have SXX in my SIPP, lots of it, with a very long time horizon.

there's your copper update I see...

[snowydays] 15/7/2012 22:04

I doubt that many people here would buy a speculative AIM smallcap as a long term investment Ethel. I think you bought Rambler as a trade and it went wrong so now you have changed your horizons to being a long term investor.

[ethelwalch] 15/7/2012 19:46

You misseed the point entirely Snowydays.

[snowydays] 14/7/2012 21:22

"The share price doesn't bother me either"

Well you are the only shareholder who is not interested in the shareprice!

[ethelwalch] 14/7/2012 19:06

I'm not too bothered about an update on the copper concentrator commissioning. It will come when Ogilvie is ready. When I bought my first RMM shares two years ago or so, I decided I liked the management and chose to put my trust in them. Since then I have not been disappointed by newsflow, both positive and negative.

Even if there are problems, I'll still take a long term view as I believe RMM are top notch and are very likely to overcome the issues they encounter.

The share price doesn't bother me either, the whole market is an almighty mess and RMM have not exactly been hammered into the ground. Excuse the pun.

They have a plan in place for the future ie. the stake in Maritime, outlining a 20+ year mine life, and getting a secure buyer and major shareholder onboard early. How many other junior producers are pushing forward with their plan and attracting the likes of Sprott and Macquarie?

I am confident that patience in Rambler Metals will reward me handsomely.

People's posts tell you alot about their time horizons. I'm long and strong on RMM as I think is obvious!

[snowydays] 14/7/2012 18:40

They have done in the past, which is why it is worrying that they have not updated us in respect of copper production and commissioning.

These were the RNS's in respect of the short gold production project.

15/12/2011 07:00 UKREG Rambler First Gold Dore Poured
18/01/2012 07:00 UKREG Rambler Continues Pouring Gold in Preparation of First Copper Concentrate Production
22/02/2012 07:00 UKREG Rambler Metals and Mining - Project Update
11/04/2012 08:30 UKREG Rambler Produces Over 9,700 Ounces of Gold Exploration Drilling Intersects 49.69 g/tonne Gold Over 4.45 Meters
02/05/2012 07:01 UKREG Rambler Completes Record Gold Pour of 1935 Ounces
12/06/2012 07:40 UKREG Rambler Produces 14,500 Ounces of Gold with Revenues in Excess of C$24M

So we see that Rambler updated the market every month concerning gold production. In adition there were other announcements and interim results where an update to gold production was included.

The start of copper production and concentrator commissioning is far more important to the company than the short gold project, and yet they have not updated the market for two months since the start of concentrator commisioning, except for a brief mention with the 3rd quarter results. This is especially significant considering that commissioning was predicted to take 6-8 weeks and should now be complete.

The shareprice meanwhile has fallen by 20% since the start of copper production, possibly partly due to speculation that the commissioning may be experiencing problems. An update now would be much appreciated by the market.

[redhill] 14/7/2012 12:29

I actually believe the company updates us very regularly.A lot more than other miners i know.

[snowydays] 13/7/2012 15:41

Another week goes past without Rambler bothering to update their shareholders on the progress of the concentrator commissioning.

Laughably, in their last RNS Rambler promised to update the market when the TIMNA subscription is complete. A non-event which no one is remotely interested in. Yet the start of copper production, possibly the most important event to take place in the history of the company is not worthy of updates.

Concentrator commissioning was expected to take 6-8 weeks. That time is up.

[killing_time] 12/7/2012 13:03

mdchand, Thanks.