Rambler Metals & Mining Share Discussion Threads

[snowydays] 21/9/2012 12:55

Just a rollover.

[killing_time] 21/9/2012 12:25

I knew this would happen.
All the sells over the last few weeks with the mm's letting anybody who wants out, a price of at least 29p. They were just filling an order as 2x 2,000,000 buys have just gone through at 29.25p. At least this has given some suport to the share price

Edit: I assume they are buys.

[lucky_punter] 19/9/2012 13:01

Canada-focused copper and gold miner Rambler Metals (LON:RMM, CVE:RAB) may be prepared to raise its stake in partner Maritime Resources as part of its expansion plans.
Rambler currently owns 17 per cent of Maritime and has a seat on the board.

[killing_time] 19/9/2012 10:26

From ManicMiner2 on iii, with Thanks.

I attended the Resource Investor Forum yesterday where Rambler attended and made a presentation. I also got the opportunity to speak with the Company Exec's. From what I could gather they appear to be making good progress. They have 5,400 tonnes of concentrate in the port warehouse and will be "calling" for a ship this week. They expect a ship to call port within 4 to 6 weeks once they give the notification. This means around the end of October we should see first concentrate shipment. They are still stating that Commercial Production will be declared before year end. Hopefully this then lends itself to future quarterly results with profitability and positive cash flow.

On the issue of expansion they reiterated they have no plans to finance the lower footwall zone at this point in time until they complete various optimization studies to further improve the economics. They want existing shareholders to realize gains from the mining of the massive sulphides over the next couple of years.

On the Maritime front it's pretty much the same story. They see potential value in the project but need it to be advanced significantly further before getting heavily involved. The first step would be to see a NI43-101 Resource (expected late 2012 / early 2013) followed by a Scoping Study in 2013. In the long run if the Maritime project were viable they would need to have a second crushing and grinding circuit at the mill so they could process their Ming Mine copper ore simultaneously with any gold bearing ore. A expansion at the mill would take at least a year or only comes about if the footwall zone flies. Again reading between the lines here I think any big movement here is a couple of years away.

Newsflow going forward seems to be (i) first shipment (ii) declaration of commercial production (iii) buyout of another historical royalty (1% for $500,000) (iv) release of fiscal 2012 results (v) release of 1Q2013 results (vi) exploration results. With positive news they hope this will be enough to stimulate the share price.

Hope this helps.

Manic Miner.

[killing_time] 19/9/2012 08:05

There should.

Black Rock sold down below 6% in WTI on 25th Nov 2011 then did not inform the company until the 10th Aug 2012.
If share holders do not inform RMM then RMM cannot release an RNS.

It would explain why the share price has been so depressed this year IF L&G have been selling down. The most annoying thing is their lack of communication with Rambler.If they contacted Rambler and told them they were looking to sell Rambler could of hooked them up with Tinma and they both would of got a good price without us having to have a right's issue for Tinma and also their selling depressing the share price.
People make a big deal about ii's buying shares but from my experience they are no more than large private investors who manage to buy a large share holding at a lower price so firstly lowering the share price then when the price goes nowhere for twelve months they spend the next six months selling out at a loss while depressing the share price even more.

[snowydays] 18/9/2012 21:18

Shouldn't there be an announcement when there is that sort of change in major shareholdings?

[killing_time] 18/9/2012 16:13

Legal and General investment management.

In my list i have them holding 15,182,762 down from 17,575,000.
So looking at your list you have them down to 3.65% which means they have been selling for most of this year.

Edit; I notice Bank of New York Nominees ltd has also dropped from 10,847,772 from the Q2 2012 share holders list.

[snowydays] 18/9/2012 15:38

Who is your money on? Should be an RNS soon.

Major Shareholders_____________________________Stake %
Whitmill Trust Co Limited _______________________6.21
(Harry) Dobson __________________________________6.21
The Bank of New York (Nom) Ltd __________________5.86
Henderson Global Investors ______________________4.58
Vestra Wealth LLP _______________________________4.09
Legal & General Group PLC _______________________3.65
SVM Asset Management Ltd________________________ 3.06
Tinma International Ltd ________________________15.97
CDS & Co Noms __________________________________10.25
Total__________________________________________ 59.88

[killing_time] 18/9/2012 14:48

Imo there has been a big seller dumping these for the past two-three weeks but in the last two days he has gone into overdrive, just surprised they are holding up so well.

[killing_time] 17/9/2012 16:51

Ok snowydays, the number did look a bit good, thats why i asked.

[snowydays] 17/9/2012 16:23

The volume today seems to have been mostly buys and the fall in price is an illusion caused by the narrowing of the spread.

I disagree with your eps calculation killing time. That is just gross operating profits or EBITDA. Eps should allow for depreciation, interest payments etc.

[monis] 17/9/2012 16:03

why the selling today?

[killing_time] 17/9/2012 15:48

Well i make EPS at 15.7p, does anybody disagree ?

[killing_time] 17/9/2012 15:42

Someone is selling a serious amount this afternoon.

[killing_time] 17/9/2012 15:20

Proactive artical out.




Highlights:

Might buy more or all of Maritime.

5,200 wet metric tonnes in storage, will ship at 5,500.

Production target for 2013: 20,000- 25,000 tonnes of copper concentrate = 5,500-6,000 t Cu + 11,500- 13,500 oz Au.
At 3.45 per pound and gold at $1,600 revenues for 2013 between C$58-70 million.

Underlying earnings are forecast at C$36.4 million = £23 million.

" We are very close to declaring commercial production."

[snowydays] 17/9/2012 10:15

I can understand those sentiments jgrabber. All the events which were supposed to lead to a re-rating e.g. the start of production, the commissioning of the concentrator, the first copper sales etc. have had no impact on the shareprice. In addition the newsflow has been slow and steady progress rather than anything spectacular. The prediction of just 500 tonnes of copper production in October is typical. Nothing shareholders could actually complain about, but we all hoped for better.

At the same time I still feel that there are several things which could lead to a significant improvement in the shareprice:

1) The mining sector and smallcaps in particular seems to be out of favour. It has not kept track with metal prices in the last couple of years, but there are signs that things may be changing. If the recent rise in metal prices is sustained there could be a sector revival, and investors may be looking round for overlooked shares such as Rambler.

2) A share buyback scheme. With the shares fairly tightly held a buyback and cancel scheme could reduce the free float significantly and push up the shareprice. This would require the passing of a resolution at the AGM in December.

3) Rambler should be able to quickly build a large cashpile. Even though George Ogilvie has predicted just $20m free cashflow this year, if that includes the repayment of the sprott loan then by the same figures we could expect $28m next year. Adding in the rise in metal prices since then, and hoping that Ogilvie's figures are conservative we m9ight expect $70m cash generation over the next two years, Or to put it another way, the cash pile could equal the present market cap in just two years.

4) Drilling results expanding showing the 1807 zone is much larger than thought.

In addition there is always the chance of a bid or just a general market re-appraisal of the company.

The downside must be reasonably limited given the potential cash generation, unless there were to be a serious accident or event preventing mining at Ming.

The biggest danger that I can see is the management obsession with the LFZ and the possibility that Rambler will waste any cash generated on a pointless expansion programme which goes wrong.

For now I am holding as a slightly disappointed shareholder.

[jgraggaber] 16/9/2012 18:04

A very serious underperformer in the wider market.
I had high hopes for this but I guess it is time for realism to take place. Subdued economic outlook paired with short mine life is not a recipe for rerating.
The smart guys are the guys getting out as quick as they can after each peak, not the ones hoping to be rewarded by higher future benefits (as I do). A trader's share. Time to get out at the next rise I guess.

[k4r] 16/9/2012 09:54

Chip - good plan - your interpretation is supported in the four management objectives:

Move the Ming Mine into commercial production before the end of calendar year 2012.

Continue mining and milling the exposed 1807 workplaces for the generation of copper revenues from the Ming Mine. Place additional development focus into preparing this high grade zone for further exploration both up-dip and down-dip for inclusion in future resource and reserve estimates.

Optimize the mining and processing of ores from the Ming Mine in addition to continuing to evaluate opportunities for a possible future expansion into the Lower Footwall Zone.

Become a strategic long term low-cost producer on the Baie Verte Peninsula, and throughout Atlantic Canada, by selectively pursuing growth opportunities including joint ventures and acquisitions, including the Group's investment in Maritime Resources Corp.

[king suarez] 15/9/2012 16:47

Presumably Tinma don't think Rambler is fairly valued, otherwise why pay 38p for placing shares?

[snowydays] 15/9/2012 16:05

Just a thought. When George Ogilvie speaks of $20m of free cash flow he may be factoring in the repayment of the Sprott lending facility. Those figures would make sense. Gross operating profits $36m, $7.5m capital repayments, $4m-$5m sustaining CAPEX and $3m-$$4m of various expenses leaving around $20m in free cash flow.

[chipperfrd] 15/9/2012 12:32

The potential re-opening at the Hammerdown mine plus the Orion resource would appear to add economic value to the LFZ expansion at Ming as proposed in the PEA.

According to the PEA, a new concentrator built at Ming would free up the Nugget Pond mill for the remaining gold ore from the 1806 zone. But the estimated throughput was only 100ktpa @ 4g/t for years 3 & 4. After that, no further processing was estimated at the mill but the suggestion was made that the mill would then be available for contract processing of stranded ores in the locality. But the PEA financials and the resulting NPV/IRR assumptions made no assumptions for gold processing at Nugget Pond beyond year 4.

However, if one considers the strategic alliance already formed with Maritime, the 17% stake already made by Rambler, and the historic processing of Hammerdown ores at Nugget Pond between 2000 and 2004, it all appears to add up.

Hammerdown has a non-NI43-101 resource of c. 1.8mt @ 8.3g/t (480koz) with a gross value (at current Au price) of $851m. Orion has 710kt @ 5.23g/t (119koz) with a gross value of c. $211m.

The combined resource of 2.5mt at 7.4g/t (600koz) has a current gross value of c. $1,063m, which translates to c. $423/t, quite high in industry terms and well worth the trucking costs to Nugget Pond.

Even after applying discounts for mining dilution, plant recoveries and equitable profits split between the two companies, one could see how this could add an additional profits stream to the LFZ PEA case in addition to the 17% ownership by Rambler already secured.

Start up at Hammerdown would consist of just setting up the appropriate mining and transport (relatively low cost) as all the existing infrastructure is in place.
Chip

[snowydays] 15/9/2012 11:14

Perhaps Ogilvie is just trying to talk up the shareprice rogism. As I have pointed out before, Mr Ogilvie's purported belief that Rambler is undervalued does not seem to extend to his actually buying any shares.

cfro, I believe that expanding the 1807 zone is Ramblers best hope, nevertheless even if the size is double the currently known area it will still be exhaused in three years or so.

Maritime Resources is still at the early exploration stage and is probably 5 to 10 years away from producing any revenue in my opinion.

[cfro] 15/9/2012 10:37

Good point rogsim, my own analysis and gut feel is that these are worth 60p as a minimum and that doesnt include any further explo or extensions of existing areas or indeed higher metal prices.

Snowdays, you say that production is likely to drop off after the 1807 zone is exausted but imo that is unlikely as im sure the area will be drilled/tested and most likely extended well before then.

There is other sources of revenue too as in our stake in Maritime (edit) and other strategic alliances we are likely to make.

[rogsim] 15/9/2012 09:31

snowydays

As ever, many thanks for your careful analysis. Just a question on your sentence "On the most recent figures from George Ogilvie perhaps Rambler is not undervalued." If that is the case, why is Mr Ogilvie suggesting that RMM should be re-rated once there is commercial production of copper concentrate?

[snowydays] 15/9/2012 09:11

There is a big problem with trying to ascribe a PE ratio to Rambler, which is that the earnings are likely to fall off significantly once the 1807 zone is exhausted.

Using cfro's suggestion of a PE of 5, it might make more sense to interpret that as "the next 5 years earnings" rather than "5 times this years earnings."

Using the dubious Seymore Pierce figures as a starting point we then get something like

14p, 12p, 5p, 5p, 5p giving total earnings of around 41p over the next 5 years.

However Seymor Pierce's estimates are based on annual revenue of £51m or over $80m. George Ogilvie has just suggested that revenue will be about $66m, substantially less than Seymore Pierce estimate. The shortfall might well go straight to the bottom line.

On the Ogilvie figures we get 5 years earnings more like:

9p, 9p, 3p, 3p, 3p and a total of 27p.

Both sets of figures were stated prior to the recent sharp rise in metal prices.

I am still not entirely sure why George Ogilvie is predicting the lower than expected revenues or why such low head grades are expected over the next few months. It may be that the mining methods are introducing a lot of waste material in addition to the targeted ore.

On the most recent figures from George Ogilvie perhaps Rambler is not undervalued.

I still believe there is substantial upside potential, particularly from expanding the known extent of the 1807 zone. There are also other areas to be explored, one interesting zone is the Upper Footwall Zone which may turn out to be an area of similar size and quality to the 1807 zone, see . In addition the discovery of areas of visible gold gives hope for a substantial bonus sometime.