Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[stocky] 23/8/2017 06:20

Bankruptcy or time to take a punt?

[fenners66] 23/8/2017 01:47

From the half year results on 25th July

"The full year guidance for CCD's pre-exceptional profits remains GBP60m. "

And 22nd August

"The pre-exceptional loss of the business is now likely to be in a range of between GBP80m and GBP120m."

Lets give them benefit of the doubt and say £-100m
Forecast has changed £-160m in about 4 weeks

That is PRE- EXCEPTIONALS

Where will they be in another 4 weeks - after all this has a lot of forecast in it.
Sales down £9m a week - what do they mean by SALES ( where have they used this term before?) as Revenue is only £500m for a year.

That is in the quiet period before qtr 4 so I recon the forecast will get worse.

Why?

"Collections performance and sales are both showing substantial underperformance against the comparable period in 2016. The routing and scheduling software deployed to direct the daily activities of CEMs has presented some early issues, primarily relating to the integrity of data, and the prescriptive nature of the new operating model has not allowed sufficient local autonomy to prioritise resource allocation during this period of recovery. "

Integrity of data!

New system implemented - not thoroughly tested , not trusted and throw a load of new staff into the mix.
That spells utter disaster.
It is utter failure in a manufacturing business where you think everyone knows the product - let alone a data business where you cannot trust the data!

And the IT cost ?

Feb Final accounts -
"Adjusted profit before tax is stated before an exceptional impairment charge of GBP2.9m in respect of glo's IT platform within CCD following the decision to develop guarantor loans as part of the wider Vanquis Bank loans proposition on a separate IT platform"

They wrote off £2.9m for a small part of the CCD IT - now the whole program is useless - BUT they have to fix it tomorrow -so expect Huge IT bill and impairment as the consultants lift the legs of the desperate.

Exceptionals Exceptionals etc

[milliecusto] 22/8/2017 23:51

Forgetting a fca investigation into rop,similar to ppi, at £70m per annum could be a hefty bill..

[andysaw] 22/8/2017 23:41

Was he waiting for the 3rd profit warning before exiting?

[tim 3] 22/8/2017 23:29

I am a Woodford fan,check out his record over the long term (decades) he has done very well but in recent years he has had a fair few disasters to deal with.

[cerrito] 22/8/2017 23:20

Has anyone been able to find a recording of this morning's conference call-cannot see it on website

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 22:53

Aghhhh it's nudog! You still in that dung 💩! I lost big there! No news in nearly a year blame me 🤔 Well fooooook off! You troll 💪🤡

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 22:37

Risk what's your beef with me 🤔 Why you calling me a liar ?

[bookbroker] 22/8/2017 22:35

Woodford has been in the game a long time, he has hit a rough patch, like Odey last year, it happens to all, and you only have to look at the colossal losses incurred by Paulson and Ackman in the US of A. Admittedly they are hedge fund guys, but with a shed load of their own cash on the line, however Woodford is a responsible manager of assets, his track record speaks for itself, his only failing is perhaps the size of his holdings in some entities, and the ability to counter any underperformance with an alternate strategy. He may be right, he may be wrong, discipline and execution matter here most with PFG. What is important to remember, in two years time there will be a heck of a lot more people in the UK looking for crisis loans, and companies like this will be there to serve them, many are living beyond their means and the country looks top of the tree!

[risk1] 22/8/2017 22:31

Let's have an update

How bad is this situation?

[risk1] 22/8/2017 22:30

7.5 no chance dream on

Down tomorrow and remember the poor house beckons to private gamblers

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 22:22

Look forward mr pass 7.5 imo🤠👍;

[letmepass] 22/8/2017 22:16

Looking like a buy again tomorrow.. Top up time

[scotty666] 22/8/2017 21:35

Sorry if it was already posted but this is the full Woodford update:

[5chipper] 22/8/2017 21:27

Should be able to get more than a free curry... :))

[robizm] 22/8/2017 21:25

I bought 6000 between 4.5 to 4.70 and will sell some and have a free carry. I have been there before when a supposoly safe share collapses. Time will tell

[topvest] 22/8/2017 21:24

Think its pushing through break-even if I remember correctly. Loss making overall in 2017 but should be profitable going forward. Very small at the moment though.

[cerrito] 22/8/2017 21:24

I share your thoughts topvest in your 1122 ref a possible run on Woodford funds and have made a note to myself to see where his funds have stakes in middle and smaller companies where I am.
I agree that both the BOD and Auditors face serious questions as to why the investigation last year was not disclosed.
I have no shares but quite a few of the 17,20 and 21 bonds and doing homework if I should buy more of the 21.

[robizm] 22/8/2017 21:23

Topvest do you not think they are pushing through the home credit applications into satsuma. It is the same thing without the person knocking on their door. It evens takes weekly bank payments. I reckon they have ramped satsuma up and it is now profitable.

[topvest] 22/8/2017 21:19

The value of Vanquis Bank >> the value of PFG at this point in time in my view. I don't short. Just irritated by selling this pile of rubbish at £10 this morning. Will keep watching. At least I sold half at £33, not that this helps on painful events like today!

[robizm] 22/8/2017 21:18

They are in a mess but it is not terminal. A lot of shorters on here giving advice and they have not even read the last results. The pi who are the last to short tend to get burnt the most. Plenty were short from £30 a share so made a huge profit and will be or already have closed.

[topvest] 22/8/2017 21:17

Satsuma is not yet profitable.

[robizm] 22/8/2017 21:15

They cancelled the dividend to conserve cash and you are forgetting the other 3 business money barn vanquuss and satsuma are still making money.