Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 22/8/2017 21:08

Isn't the net debt position going to be very high versus net assets? Interest cover covenant could also be tight if things get even worse at CCD.

Net assets going south, net debt going up and only £200m or so of capacity left on debt facilities. Looks tight to me if they don't sort in months.

IFRS 9 will significantly increase bad debt provisions for all banks from 1 Jan 2018 as well.

Agree that if Vanquis Bank holders start pulling deposits then its going to get really nasty. Hopefully, they won't as most are term deposits. Daily Mail will no doubt get some customers worried.

[bargainbob] 22/8/2017 21:04

Take it private , you can then value it and get a good year on year return.Simples know the marketdotcom.


Why would it need to delist?

----------------------------------------------

"Shares of Sphere Medical plunged after the company said it would likely be forced into insolvency, unless it could fresh financing which was conditional on its delisting from AIM.
Sphere felt there was not sufficient funding available through public markets, so has decided to delist in order for one of its existing owners, Woodford Investment Management, to supply the quantum of funds needed.

That was due to fund restrictions on Woodford for its public market investments"

[simon gordon] 22/8/2017 20:54

For Vanquis it's all about brand damage limitation.

Alphaville - 21/8/17:

RBC's Peter Lenardos

Today is going to be painful with the dividend gone and trading performance of the Home Credit business falling off a cliff and showing no signs of improvement. Regardless of the government deposit guarantee there is a tail risk in terms of retail deposit funding and this will need to be monitored carefully over the next few weeks/months. Will middle class Daily Mail readers take fright and move their money? To some extent the fact that Vanquis holds term deposits may help, but renewal rates are likely to suffer and the cost of deposits is likely to rise.

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 20:52

As I used them years ago! They know how to collect it's embarrassing! And stressful if you don't! They don't give up! Trust me I've been there! Shamefully 😳

[guyswonga74] 22/8/2017 20:51

Question about AT bot trades. Why are they for such a small amount of shares and how come they affect the share price so much???

[topvest] 22/8/2017 20:44

Think we are going to start seeing redemptions from Woodford Funds if the constant bad news carries on. If he has to start selling 20/30% positions on individual shares, watch out as that would be carnage! Another Woodford risk is that some of his individual positions are very high %'s and therefore impossible to exit easily without killing the stock price.

[bargainbob] 22/8/2017 20:40

Grahamite2

As discussed today , how he values his funds is under the microscope.

Keep a careful eye out on the funds in question.

[topvest] 22/8/2017 20:37

Paul Scott article now out. Makes an interesting read. Think I agree with him that all the value is in Vanquis Bank. The sum of the rest is a net negative at this point in time. How negative is the big question.

[5chipper] 22/8/2017 20:26

Guess the true test of whether Woodford believes his words will be whether he increases his stake over the coming days..

[topvest] 22/8/2017 20:25

I suspect today's disaster will help them in the FCA investigation though, somewhat bizarrely. I'm sure the FCA won't want to kill a 100 year+ FTSE-100 group by being too tough, if you see what I mean.

[topvest] 22/8/2017 20:21

Sounds like Vanquis is OK as its standalone. PFG is the problem in my view and not Vanquis. Some part of the group needs to fund the CCD business. Vanquis could have done that, but haven't the FCA stopped all of that!!?

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 20:13

Hope so house prices over inflated 🤠✌A039;

[eurofox] 22/8/2017 20:13

Peel Hunt’s Stuart Duncan said the company did not seem to be in imminent danger of collapse, but warned it could face problems if Vanquis Bank customers start withdrawing deposits.

“If they read that Provident or Vanquis is in trouble, it will be interesting to see how the deposit base behaves over the next few years.”

... this could blow a massive hole in recovery prospects

[stocky] 22/8/2017 20:10

Is this prelude to the UK housing market crash?

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 20:09

I hate this company also posted uses them when I was broke! It's pay back time! 🤡✌A039;

[simon gordon] 22/8/2017 20:09

Topvest,

I'm with you.

That RNS was like looking at a black hole.

Their core business is imploding.

FTSE100 stock down c.70% in a day is a flash back to the banking crisis of 08/09. Bradford and Bingley, Northern Rock.

If your core business is imploding and you need debt financing to finance your debt you can hit the wall quickly.

I would imagine the PRA are keeping a very close eye on Vanquis where savers are trapped in 1 to 5 year saving products that can't be called early. If those savers weren't trapped there might have been a run on Vanquis. Those savers get 2.5% for five years in a sub prime lender. Should they ever have been given a banking licence?

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 19:55

Seriously 😒 now!godi look like phealan on Corrie! lol scary!hang on 🤠 That's better! Used to work with that guy as a rep years ago! Lovely bloke! Diversing now! Where was I? Oh yeah watch it rise rapidly tomorrow! Gla! 🤠✌A039;

[kemche] 22/8/2017 19:52

Major shareholder says shares he holds are undervalued - what a shocker!

[topvest] 22/8/2017 19:50

Maybe their valuation model has a gremlin.....would explain some of his so called value investments of late!! Entry price too high.

[grahamite2] 22/8/2017 19:48

Interesting link scotty666.

Woodford said: "I believe ..... Provident Financial shares STARTED the day undervalued

(my capitals)

He's really out on a limb here, isn't he?

[glenkaz] 22/8/2017 19:43

If it does I'll throw a few 🦑🦑's in and join ya! Lol! Gl see you on our next meeting 🤠👍

[topvest] 22/8/2017 19:43

Woodford has put out a 4 minute read article for those interested. Good of him to comment. Must admit that I think its far too optimistic given what's happened. In my view it will take at least 2 years to recover from this problem. Then again, if you own 20% then its rather difficult to be truly objective. Doesn't mention the timing issues around the FCA investigation or the potential consequences, other than playing them down. I'm sure he's better informed than us. Then again would you trust the judgement of the PFG management team that are no doubt briefing him, after the events of the last few months?!

[value hound] 22/8/2017 19:42

FWIW; my best estimation is £8 a share - IF they don't need a fundraising, which is why I bought a few at 552p.