Provexis Share Discussion Threads

[horridhenry] 03/10/2023 16:33

might be tempted if they do a raise at about .30, can't see the price would be more at present (not far off what i got quoted to sell 3m)

[bareknee] 01/10/2023 19:49

Redprince

Ford had a pay rise last FY, he's now on 160k. Doubtless he's busier / has more responsibility etc, but it's a bit cheeky to effectively give yourself an ~35k pay rise while presiding over growing losses, but it's not really a surprise.

Anyway, putting that whinge to one side, I did some very rough calculations based on the limited data from the two months of sales and it doesn't look like we'll be hitting break even very soon.

I think the 280k of sales in H1 of 2023/24 will generate a gross profit of something in the order of 90 to 100k, with, by the looks of it, vaguely similar numbers for H2.

I might have totally ballsed up the numbers on those, and I'm not sure how the royalties payable to DSM are represented in the accounts, but I think that's broadly correct.

On the face of it, FF powder sales are dropping and, until ByHealth start making orders that's not likely to change much. On the other hand, the royalties payable to DSM will reduce over the coming years, so that'll help our cash flow.

I must admit, I had hoped current sales would be a fair bit better than they are, so I got that wrong.

Given our current cashflow situation, we can't be far off running out of cash, so I'd expect a share issue pretty imminently. I think the volume of current sales means getting a loan against future sales is fairly unlikely, and, until ByHealth are a major customer, I don't think a loan would keep us as a going concern.

Hopefully Lucas et al will dig deep once again. There's no reason to think they won't, but, if they don't, we could be in trouble.

BB

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 11:15

anyone want 3m of these ?
The market doesn't

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 10:56

15 years in this
How many times did the word Multiple appear in the reports ??????

Some of the ramping nutters only have themselves to blame

I recall a Jock (thedon or something) nutter who actually went with his wife to attend an awards do in Barcelona, and returned to say what a decent chap Stephen Moon was ????????

HE TOOK YOUR MONEY

Even Nicola Sturgeon managed to net a profit (apparently) from her work for the Scottish people

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 08:28

oh dear. No crumb of comfort whatsoever

I'm selling my remaining today

another year at least, and more cash will be needed

[winner31] 04/9/2023 18:33

Should give people the confidence to buy in SL has increased his holding ! Thanks to gixer for spotting it .

[redprince] 03/9/2023 10:30

Another point to bear in mind is that under our new agreement with DSM we stand to get a rising % of profit over next 3-4 years.Factor in By-Health's mooted product range containing FF and that they are B2B distributors for the Far East and also the large entity in India who are said to be interested...

I really think that whilst patience is being stretched here it will pay an exponential benefit to be somewhat more patient for several years yet!

I am just exacerbated by the ridiculously undemanding share options (more dilution) and the excessive salary being paid to IF.We are paying heavilyl for it.

Moan over.

[bareknee] 02/9/2023 12:07

Winner

As Gixer has said, David's ethnically Chinese, but, unless his circumstances have changed over the last few years, he lives in the UK.

[redprince] 02/9/2023 11:28

I do not believe it is $'s as no company would be willing to invest that on supplements.The payback would be literally tens of years.

So i think its an error.

I remember reading that the originally planned trials (think it was 5) was thought to run into a near seven figure gbp amount.

I concur with gixer that its around £2.2 million gbp.

Still a far from insignificant sum.

[winner31] 02/9/2023 08:46

If it is dollars by health will be expecting a huge payback I would think !

[gix er] 02/9/2023 08:24

Yes I noticed that.
Very strange whatever.

[winner31] 02/9/2023 08:14

Gixer the Byhealth official version also now shows dollars , perhaps it needed clarifying so they changed it

[gix er] 02/9/2023 07:41

Just for info.

Google now translating it to dollars for me whereas before it was funds.

[redprince] 01/9/2023 21:18

I am going in the middle wrt timescale here.It would probably take a >= 1 year if the pre submission work had not been as thorough but given the work that By-Health have done and that they have been working steadfastly toward this end i believe we are looking at 6 months to under a year.

Once again this week we saw folks grasping at straws after the somewhat ambiguous rns trying to interpret it as tens of millions USD.We knew from before that originally the sum was in the ballpark of £1 million so with the extra trials that has grown to £2 million not tens of million gbp.

What we dont know is the likelihood and quantum of extra funding that may be needed.

Anyway it is good to know that the submission is underway at long last.

Clearly By-Health are very keen on FF but again we have no idea what our margin is likely to be.

My gut tells me it is likely to be several years before we can ascertain the scope of the deal with any real clarity - time for sales to build and profit to accrue to pxs.

Not withstanding a price spike on news of product launch i suspect a lot of pi's will look to bail "early" and the price is likely to be volatile until it all settles down and revenues become more predictable.

Hard to believe it has taken this long!

[winner31] 01/9/2023 20:11

I’ve a feeling it won’t be that long , Davidxie posted on lse a couple of days ago , he doesn’t post very often but he seems to know what he’s talking about , I believe he lives in China but I might be wrong , gixer will probably put me right on that , I hope he doesn’t mind me putting his post on here. ....
It is Yuan not Dollars, BH spent a few million pounds on Fruitflow since 2015.

I have read the Implementation Rules document, it does not specify the time frame of approval, but given the work (pre-launch trials and report which are required by the Rules) done by BH, I expect it will be approved very soon and BH needs this to drive its growth.

[bareknee] 01/9/2023 13:21

My guess, based on what we know about China and also, how long the EFSA took over here is that Henry won't be far out with an estimate of >=1 year.

I'd be amazed if this took less than, say, six months, but, tbh, none of us really have a clue.

We've got two hurdles to cross before knowing if this has taken Provexis into grown-up company land.

1. Getting a big tick in the box from SAMR
2. Seeing big enough orders for FF, along with a reasonable margin to make a material difference

I don't think there's much risk of (1) not happening, so, for the first time in years, I've bought a few more.

(2) is harder to call and will depend on what deal we've, presumably already agreed with By-Health and, longer term, how successful they are at selling it to consumers

[winner31] 30/8/2023 18:39

It seems to me that SAMR have been working closely with Byhealth on this application ,I think they want this to succeed almost as much as we do !


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Translation result

Jimu News

23-8-31 12:01
From Weibo video account

focus on
[An optimistic industry with high prosperity, welcomes new favorable policies] The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued new regulations to liberalize the application for new functions of health food. Of course, applying for a new feature is not that easy. The new regulations emphasize that the evaluation indicators and criteria for new functions should be scientific, clear, feasible, and have been verified and evaluated. The first one to submit an application was BY-HEALTH, the leader in the dietary supplement industry. Taking "Qingluosin" as a breakthrough point, By-Health spent 8 years researching and finally submitted the application for a new function that "helps maintain normal platelet aggregation function and is beneficial to blood flow health", and its "scientific nutrition" strategic layout Go one step further. Jimu News’ Weibo video(Edited)Restore original

[horridhenry] 30/8/2023 08:48

Based on what we know wrt how slow the process has bee up to now, then i would say with no optimism whatsoever it will be at least 1 year

God this is painful, never any timeframe, and they all continue to draw income

I'm tempted to go to the agm this year, but they have become experts at delay.

There is no incentive for them to act. Where is our salesforce ?

I'm going to sell some more today if the share price rises anymore -plenty of time to buy back in on the retrace

[gix er] 30/8/2023 06:44

I wouldn't say SAMR was particularly new as it was founded in 2018 by bringing together 3 separate agencies including the China Food and Drug Administration.
What is new is the ability for companies to apply to SAMR (previously CFDA) to include new health function claims to the existing registrar.

How long this new process will take is unknown but if By-Health have been working closely with the SAMR since 2015 then it could very well be a box ticking exercise.

I live in hope anyway :)

"The reason why BY-HEALTH was able to submit the innovation application at the first time was that BY-HEALTH had aimed at the new function of "maintaining normal platelet aggregation function" as early as 2015, and used Fruitflow, a water-soluble tomato concentrate known as "natural aspirin". ® (Hytonin), to carry out the research and development of the new function of maintaining normal platelet aggregation. The entire research and development lasted nearly eight years and invested tens of millions of funds."

[redprince] 29/8/2023 20:48

Yes gixer - i just read that - very good indeed!However i agree with BB in that i think it will take some time for the regulatory guys to wade through the material particularly as SAMR is a new body and this is a novel claim.

BWTFDIK!

[winner31] 29/8/2023 19:34

I doubt it will be a drawn out process, as it says in That release they have already waited 8 years and spent millions getting to this stage , fingers crossed

[gix er] 29/8/2023 18:54

As By-Health are the first then its a bit of an unknown but lets hope it doesn't take that long.