Provexis Share Discussion Threads

[winner31] 10/10/2023 20:01

From bitter experience I am always wary of Aim Bod , have lost a huge amount on one Aim share in the past so I scrutinise everything directors say and when they don’t deliver I am even more suspicious . I think the bod have pinned everything on Byhealth getting Bluehat and as BB said it would mean little work on marketing and promotion but I think this is a lazy attitude for shareholders ,I think we deserve better . I hope the bod have something else to tell us soon !even a fund raise would be welcome at the moment.

[gix er] 10/10/2023 19:13

Maybe I am just concerned about nothing winner but being a suspicious git I can't help myself lol.
If a new customer approached DSM for FF on its own and they were told they only supply as a premix or market ready solution then we/provexis might never know about them.
Surly it can't be to difficult for our "small team of sales, marketing, e-commerce, PR and scientific consultants" to come up with a plan.

[winner31] 10/10/2023 17:47

You would think / hope that DSM would redirect them to Provexis ,but no !, as you say and I believe DSM only look after their own interest ,but it is up to IF to get those companies back !

[gix er] 10/10/2023 17:09

BB, Re: "( persue prospective customers from the pipeline passed over by DSM )"

As I said,relying on DSM sending new or existing customers to us is not a great idea and I have correspondence from one previous customer who has dropped Fruitflow in their product stating "Unfortunately, the company which supplies this ingredient no longer supplies it as a single ingredient, but only as a combination with other ingredients". Sounds like DSM are looking after themselves.

Maybe my marketing plan is a bit over simplified :) but it costs nothing to have a page on the Provexis website for order inquiries and website searches may even direct interested parties to that page.

I believe a fund raise will be required for the next batch of FF but have no concerns that there will be an issue with that when required.

[bareknee] 10/10/2023 13:35

Gixer

In terms of a Sales and Marketing plan, it looks from the outside that we have a Sales plan ( persue prospective customers from the pipeline passed over by DSM ) but don't have a marketing plan which will add new companies to the pipeline.

Given marketing is expensive, we don't have much cash and have been talking about raising money for what seems like an age, I guess not having a marketing plan isn't surprising ( ByHealth are already listed in the pipeline, so they need next to nothing in terms of marketing from us ).

I still think by far the most likely step is a fund raise, but if Ford can't get that away then we're going to have cashflow issues when we need to restock FF2.

Worst case scenario is the shares will be suspended and a low ball offer will be recommended by the board as the only way to avoid administration.

Those are the risks we take though.

BB

[gix er] 10/10/2023 06:28

Can't disagree with your figures BB but my concern is the obvious fall in revenue from the AA over the last few years. I have no idea if this is down to fewer sales or an increase in the price for FF (or both) as an ingredient but it doesn't look great.

We were told that "The customers which are set to be transferred to Provexis represent a significant majority of DSM's total sales of Fruitflow". So where have they gone and what is IF doing to attract (old and) new customers?

There is no obvious link, that i can find, that would direct new customers for FF to provexis. Relying on DSM sending new or existing customers to us is not a great idea.

[bareknee] 09/10/2023 18:57

So, to follow on from my previous post re. gross profits from our sales of FF2. All figures, apart from the ones coming out of my calcs, are from the accounts

In the two last financial years, we've sold 144k and 145k of FF+ Omega 3, so, as near as damn it, the same.

For the year just reported on, the cost of goods was 95k and for the previous year it was 46k. Though it won't be a totally accurate assumption, if we assume the cost of goods for FF+ Omega 3 is unchanged at 46k, then that means the cost of goods for FF2 was

95 - 46 = 49k.

So we sold 74k's worth of FF2 at a cost, to us, of 49k and made a profit of 25k on it. Roughly speaking, a third of the sales was booked as profit.

Post year end, we've sold another 280k and have firm orders for 155k, so 435k in total. If the margin is unchanged from Feb / March, then that'll give us a profit of 435/3 = 145k. If Q4 is similar to H1 and Q3, then we're probably looking at a gross profit of ~ 200k on FF2 ( with an additional gross profit of ~100k on FF+ )

For the last three years, the money received from DSM has been 170k, 282k and 358k. The 170k is artificially low because the AA expired with three months left on the clock, it's reasonable to assume it would otherwise have been 200k plus.

So, it looks like the profits we're going to generate this FY from FF2 will be less than what we've been used to receiving as part of the profit share from DSM via the AA. On the face of it, that sounds ludicrous, but I've checked my calcs and I'm confident they're broadly right.

So, when Ian Ford says

"From 1 January 2023 the net profit accruing to Provexis on sales of Fruitflow in the calendar year - on a pro-forma basis, assuming like for like sales and margins - would be materially ahead of the net share of the profit that would have accrued to Provexis with like for like sales and margins under the 2010 Alliance Agreement." he is, of course factually correct, but the numbers don't sèem to add up.

My interpretation of all that is sales this FY and, though probably less likely, margins are not at like for like levels and have actually fallen. If I'm right, we're very much in squeaky bum territory and, unless ByHealth get Blue Hat approval in double quick time, Ford will have to sort our cash situation as a matter of urgency.

The lack of anything being finalised on that is becoming a major concern to me.

BB

[bareknee] 03/10/2023 21:16

Winner

The problem as I see it at the moment is that though turnover is increasing as we sell FF2 directly to customers, the profits from those sales look to be broadly similar to the profit share we've historically received from DSM.

So our historic negative cashflow is continuing and, if my estimates are right, will continue to be negative until the royalties due to DSM decrease and/or substantial orders come through from ByHealth.

Obviously, my estimates could be wrong, but I'll show my working out when I'm on a bigger device than a phone !

[winner31] 03/10/2023 16:26

Bare knee while I sympathise with your post ,and I also am frustrated by the apparent lack of progress the company seem to be making .I think we are forgetting the statement made in the funding update in April . “While these negotiations progress the Company will receive incoming funds from further sales of the Company's existing Fruitflow inventory.” ......... so we know they have £280k + they are processing £155k which = £435k +ff+ money of £70k + what they have left in the bank in March 31st £389k , so I think to say they are going to struggle for money might not be accurate . After saying that I would like the funding issue out the way but I suspect it suits the bod to have this uncertainty hanging over shareholders heads , it also stops speculation by traders which is a good thing I suppose .

[horridhenry] 03/10/2023 15:33

might be tempted if they do a raise at about .30, can't see the price would be more at present (not far off what i got quoted to sell 3m)

[bareknee] 01/10/2023 18:49

Redprince

Ford had a pay rise last FY, he's now on 160k. Doubtless he's busier / has more responsibility etc, but it's a bit cheeky to effectively give yourself an ~35k pay rise while presiding over growing losses, but it's not really a surprise.

Anyway, putting that whinge to one side, I did some very rough calculations based on the limited data from the two months of sales and it doesn't look like we'll be hitting break even very soon.

I think the 280k of sales in H1 of 2023/24 will generate a gross profit of something in the order of 90 to 100k, with, by the looks of it, vaguely similar numbers for H2.

I might have totally ballsed up the numbers on those, and I'm not sure how the royalties payable to DSM are represented in the accounts, but I think that's broadly correct.

On the face of it, FF powder sales are dropping and, until ByHealth start making orders that's not likely to change much. On the other hand, the royalties payable to DSM will reduce over the coming years, so that'll help our cash flow.

I must admit, I had hoped current sales would be a fair bit better than they are, so I got that wrong.

Given our current cashflow situation, we can't be far off running out of cash, so I'd expect a share issue pretty imminently. I think the volume of current sales means getting a loan against future sales is fairly unlikely, and, until ByHealth are a major customer, I don't think a loan would keep us as a going concern.

Hopefully Lucas et al will dig deep once again. There's no reason to think they won't, but, if they don't, we could be in trouble.

BB

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 10:15

anyone want 3m of these ?
The market doesn't

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 09:56

15 years in this
How many times did the word Multiple appear in the reports ??????

Some of the ramping nutters only have themselves to blame

I recall a Jock (thedon or something) nutter who actually went with his wife to attend an awards do in Barcelona, and returned to say what a decent chap Stephen Moon was ????????

HE TOOK YOUR MONEY

Even Nicola Sturgeon managed to net a profit (apparently) from her work for the Scottish people

[horridhenry] 29/9/2023 07:28

oh dear. No crumb of comfort whatsoever

I'm selling my remaining today

another year at least, and more cash will be needed

[winner31] 04/9/2023 17:33

Should give people the confidence to buy in SL has increased his holding ! Thanks to gixer for spotting it .

[redprince] 03/9/2023 09:30

Another point to bear in mind is that under our new agreement with DSM we stand to get a rising % of profit over next 3-4 years.Factor in By-Health's mooted product range containing FF and that they are B2B distributors for the Far East and also the large entity in India who are said to be interested...

I really think that whilst patience is being stretched here it will pay an exponential benefit to be somewhat more patient for several years yet!

I am just exacerbated by the ridiculously undemanding share options (more dilution) and the excessive salary being paid to IF.We are paying heavilyl for it.

Moan over.

[bareknee] 02/9/2023 11:07

Winner

As Gixer has said, David's ethnically Chinese, but, unless his circumstances have changed over the last few years, he lives in the UK.

[redprince] 02/9/2023 10:28

I do not believe it is $'s as no company would be willing to invest that on supplements.The payback would be literally tens of years.

So i think its an error.

I remember reading that the originally planned trials (think it was 5) was thought to run into a near seven figure gbp amount.

I concur with gixer that its around £2.2 million gbp.

Still a far from insignificant sum.

[winner31] 02/9/2023 07:46

If it is dollars by health will be expecting a huge payback I would think !

[gix er] 02/9/2023 07:24

Yes I noticed that.
Very strange whatever.

[winner31] 02/9/2023 07:14

Gixer the Byhealth official version also now shows dollars , perhaps it needed clarifying so they changed it

[gix er] 02/9/2023 06:41

Just for info.

Google now translating it to dollars for me whereas before it was funds.