Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 30/6/2018 04:57

It was in the 28/06/2018 RNS on the Transfer to Premium Listing.
The one done by Savills.

[shaharkeinan] 29/6/2018 18:01

Where did you see a new valuation? I missed it

[sogoesit] 29/6/2018 15:53

Edison Upgrades today, indicative £24/share NAV:



"PPHE has accompanied news of its proposed transfer to a premium listing with a significant increase in market valuations of its properties (up c £140m since last reported). This accentuates already substantial hidden reserves, implying fair value c £24/share. Value creation apart, this should boost its ability to leverage on its assets for future projects. Even given current share price strength (up almost a third since March), PPHE’s rating reflects neither this asset backing nor excess liquidity (c £290m cash equivalents at end 2017), which highlights its reinvestment potential.
Premium listing
Travel & leisure
29 June 2018
Price
1,430p
Market cap
£605m
Net bank debt (£m) at December 2017
408.1
Shares in issue
42.3m
Free float
23%
Code
PPH
Primary exchange
LSE


Business description
PPHE Hotel Group (formerly Park Plaza Hotels) is an integrated owner and operator of four-star, boutique and deluxe hotels in gateway cities, regional centres and select resort destinations, predominantly in Europe.
Analysts
Richard Finch
[phone]
Paul Hickman
[phone]
[e-mail]
Edison profile page
PPHE Hotel Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Following its admission to the Official List in 2011, PPHE proposes to move from a standard to a premium listing by the end of July, subject to financial authority approval. Besides validating the company’s quality, this should improve liquidity by providing exposure to a larger investor base and raise its trading profile.
As part of the proposed transfer, PPHE sought independent valuation of its UK and Netherlands estate (15 properties, c 80% of group asset value). This showed a surplus of £639m over book value at April, against £500m+ indicated by refinancings over the previous two years (see 2017 Annual Report). NAV computation should also take account of £56m higher property book value at April, driven by the Hoxton addition. This gives a total c £200m boost to valuations (£139m extra from fair value and £56m from expansion). This would be yet higher if Croatia were included (£26m surplus of current value of investment in Arena over book value at December). Fair value adjustment is thus c £16 (£639m+£56m/42.3m shares) to reported 812p NAV, hence indicative c £24 NAV".

[sogoesit] 28/6/2018 15:05

New valuation of properties published today prior to new premium listing on 30 July.
Total (Gross) Asset Value at £1.67bn plus £105m for Arena.
Making approx. £41.55/share.
This is about a 70% uplift to the asset value from the last results as far as I can see.
NAV now looks like about £27.

Anyway, bought a couple monkeys worth. Who knows, we could get a double in a year or so.

[sogoesit] 14/6/2018 09:05

Aah, thanks for that rage.
I got some this morning but at 1395.

[ragehammer] 14/6/2018 09:01

Finncap have issued a significant target price upgrade from 1350p to 1937p based on a NAV of 2205p. This follows the recent analyst visit to the group's Croatian hotels.

[sogoesit] 14/6/2018 08:58

Difficult to get stock without pushing price up yesterday and today.

[catsick] 09/6/2018 03:41

Well its still trading at less than half book value and doing excellent deals , It has a lot further to go up before it gets to a fair price !

[sogoesit] 07/6/2018 21:46

Something strange going on here... the share price has been going up nearly all year so far!!!
Maybe driven by the new listing and advisers.

[sogoesit] 16/4/2018 10:02

Interview with CFO:

[sogoesit] 12/3/2018 11:37

Edison notes today:

"PPHE Hotel Group
Fraught with Opportunity

PPHE has delivered a strong set of results for 2017. The 14% EBITDA gain was ahead of our expectations, largely owing to core resilience in London, the company's major profit source, despite a demanding H2 comparative and notable market slowdown. The new properties (Waterloo and Park Royal) also surprised. While 2018 is transitional as management reviews deployment of its greatly enhanced flexibility (c £290m cash equivalents at end-2017), there should still be good progress thanks to recent openings and current momentum. Indeed, our new 2019 forecasts may prove cautious, given such investment potential. PPHE’s modest rating reflects neither this excess liquidity nor its asset backing (fair value c £20/share).

Business description

PPHE Hotel Group (formerly Park Plaza Hotels) is an integrated owner and operator of four-star, boutique and deluxe hotels in gateway cities, regional centres and select resort destinations, predominantly in Europe.

Next events IMS May 2018

Analysts

Richard Finch
[phone]
Paul Hickman
[phone]
[e-mail]

Edison profile page

PPHE Hotel Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited


H2 bucks headwinds

As 23% higher H1 EBITDA was driven by recovery in London, a gain of 9% in the half-year to December is no less creditable, given clear slowdown in the capital and major refurbishments in the Netherlands. With core London RevPAR flat in H2 (our estimate), PPHE looks in line with the market, while its flagship Westminster Bridge again markedly outperformed its peers. However, unsurprisingly, cost pressures (eg payroll and property taxes) were to the fore, hence core London EBITDA was apparently down slightly, if by less than we forecast. Waterloo (especially) and Park Royal are stabilising rapidly with an impressive first contribution. Croatia was buoyant (local currency double-digit RevPAR growth) and the Netherlands resilient (RevPAR +3%) despite renovation works (local currency EBITDA down by a quarter).

Developments may well surprise forecasts

On stated investment plans, we are comfortable with existing 2018 forecasts, detailed on page 2, bar minimal adjustments. EBITDA growth will be driven by recent investment in London and Croatia, while H217 suggests costs may be less punitive in core London than feared (we still expect lower margin), even if our RevPAR is now curbed from +2% to flat. 2019 is less clear as management focuses on exploiting flexibility after Waterloo’s sale and leaseback and Arena’s fund-raising.

Valuation: Deals to showcase value creation

Record share price strength suggests overdue recognition of PPHE’s investment case. In particular, the market discount to fair value is highlighted by refinancing valuations that show an excess of £500m+ over book value. Expected investment activity should only accentuate this and draw attention to the company’s strong development record. At 8.0x 2018e EV/EBITDA excluding Waterloo finance lease, the rating is low against an average of c 11x 2018e for branded European peers."

[sogoesit] 28/2/2018 12:13

Latest Total Net Book Value per share is about £27.
An increase of about 8%+ over last year.

[winsome] 28/2/2018 07:45

Nice results this morning. Slightly better than expected and NAV up quite a bit.

[sogoesit] 31/1/2018 16:43

Good increases in RevPAR, both Euro and GBP based along with occupancy.

PPH has Euro income so translation will be good for GBP accounts.
Not sure that we will know anything about GBP/USD deterring tourism in UK til well into the year but general USD weakness probably will have an effect on Americans (as they also tend to travel to the continent). Similarly strong Euro will have an effect too for continental europeans travelling to UK.
A difficult one to figure out if at all.

[ny boy] 25/1/2018 06:41

Do you guys think the sudden increase in the £... 5% + already just this month,will affect the sp, maybe London will suffer from a drop in tourism as a result?

This was my only concern going fwd.

[catsick] 25/1/2018 05:12

I think the hoxton trade just shows there is even more hidden nav on the half they already owned !

[sogoesit] 24/1/2018 16:45

Edison comment today:

"Today’s proposal to acquire full ownership of the land for its Hoxton scheme is welcome evidence that PPHE’s continued growth is very much in hand. The company’s strong development record, sustained by recent major openings in London, coupled with the established strength of its reach in the capital, reinforce confidence in this exciting and potentially lucrative project. Moreover, it can only benefit from the introduction to London of lifestyle “art’otel” by PPHE at high-profile Battersea Power Station. Construction is set to begin in Q2."

[sogoesit] 20/1/2018 09:22

Hmm... an illiquid stock, few shares purchased bumped up the price.
Prone to abrupt share price movement. But, still undervalued on asset value. On operating basis it is asset heavy (vs IHG asset light) so returns on assets/equity etc. are dismal.
It significantly outperforms IHG over the longer term ‘tho - 3+ years.
Occasionally I buy more (few days ago) otherwise I leave it to sleep.

[suetballs] 19/1/2018 17:20

So - looks like the market agrees with you.
Suet

[suetballs] 27/12/2017 19:24

This share has had a great year. Long may it continue.
Suet

[catsick] 31/10/2017 08:31

Decent trading update yoy room rates all healthy increases and confident for q4

[sogoesit] 31/10/2017 04:33

Edison has “Fair value” at £18 now (in their evaluation of 20 September after last results).
The last marker I had was £17 but that was a while back so I’ve lost track of where we are now. Anyway, the sp’s track is upwards but pretty unpredictable in when the lurches occur. Mind you I was worried for a few months at 700 after the lurch from 800.
I think one to put away, forget and look at when I get near to death... maybe sooner, who knows ;-)?

[suetballs] 19/9/2017 11:22

I am now up 120% on this and will continue to hold.
One of my recent better investments!
Suet

[catsick] 11/9/2017 09:15

I dont think its news leaking, I just think we have someone buying a decent stake over time and there is not a lot of selling interest, I would guess with true nav over 20 pounds and london hotels booming these guys having shown they are excellent at acquiring and developing sites very profitably should be trading higher and if you push it up a pound in doing so you are still in at an excellent level