Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[catsick] 31/10/2017 08:31

Decent trading update yoy room rates all healthy increases and confident for q4

[sogoesit] 31/10/2017 04:33

Edison has “Fair value” at £18 now (in their evaluation of 20 September after last results).
The last marker I had was £17 but that was a while back so I’ve lost track of where we are now. Anyway, the sp’s track is upwards but pretty unpredictable in when the lurches occur. Mind you I was worried for a few months at 700 after the lurch from 800.
I think one to put away, forget and look at when I get near to death... maybe sooner, who knows ;-)?

[suetballs] 19/9/2017 11:22

I am now up 120% on this and will continue to hold.
One of my recent better investments!
Suet

[catsick] 11/9/2017 09:15

I dont think its news leaking, I just think we have someone buying a decent stake over time and there is not a lot of selling interest, I would guess with true nav over 20 pounds and london hotels booming these guys having shown they are excellent at acquiring and developing sites very profitably should be trading higher and if you push it up a pound in doing so you are still in at an excellent level

[sogoesit] 06/9/2017 08:39

The recent buying pre-news release looks mightily pre-emptive, and correct, in that case.
Patently a leaking organisation.... to be aware of in future imv!

[catsick] 06/9/2017 07:10

Very impressive growth numbers the like for like revpar growth is huge, should see us push through 10 quid ...

[catsick] 01/9/2017 01:58

Two months without a down day now ! Must be some patient buying going on, still at such a massive discount it could go on for a while ....

[catsick] 25/8/2017 13:18

Yes its going up every day, the results are going to be sweet ...

[suetballs] 22/8/2017 07:35

Not long to wait -interim results 6th September.
Suet

[sogoesit] 17/8/2017 20:06

Yep, something must be brewing when trades come out of the blue.
Maybe tourism and Athletics championships good for business in the big city...

[suetballs] 17/8/2017 17:20

£9 broken today - nice.
Suet

[sogoesit] 05/7/2017 12:16

Ok; from cash on the balance sheet?

Yes, I see this: "..and is intended to be used to further improve and grow the Group's portfolio amongst other corporate purposes."

[trytotakeiteasy] 05/7/2017 12:13

no that is being ploughed into the business. They could still do a special dividend if they want though.

[sogoesit] 05/7/2017 12:10

Will there be a special dividend announcement in the half year (from the value raised through the recent sale and leaseback)?

My estimate of cash value released is £81m or about £1.90/share.

[sogoesit] 22/5/2017 16:52

This is from free part of Research Tree Edison on 09 May:

"PPHE has consolidated a H216 recovery with a “strong” start to 2017. The 21% like-for-like RevPAR gain in Q1, albeit on weak comparatives and currency-boosted, implies double-digit yield growth in key UK and German markets, which is impressive in uncertain times. Full-year prospects remain positive, boosted by transformative investment in London and Croatia, now the subject of major fundraising by its Arena subsidiary. Potential asset sales and associated return to shareholders, as in 2016, could be a significant catalyst for a share price at a huge discount to real asset value.

The 21% like-for-like RevPAR increase is necessarily striking, so should be seen against a soft first quarter in 2016 after the Paris attacks and a c 11% positive currency effect. Although detailed regional performance in Q1 is not disclosed, we may infer at least double-digit gains in London and Germany since Amsterdam was apparently relatively quiet and Croatia was not significant as Q1 is low season. Such a performance was broadly in line with the London market, as newly reported by STR (+11%), IHG (+12%) and Millennium (+14%), amongst others.

While the overall yield gain is well ahead of our full-year estimate, we are holding forecasts as Q1 is least representative and H216 proved particularly strong. Nonetheless, positive signs abound, notably continued resilience in London (+17% per Millennium in April), confirmation of the imminent full openings of Waterloo and Park Royal and encouraging summer bookings in Croatia. PPHE should further benefit from the current offering by its Zagreb-listed subsidiary Arena Hospitality, which is expected to raise c £85m for expansion in Croatia and central Europe.

At 9.3x 2017e EV/EBITDA, PPHE’s valuation is undemanding against an average of c 10x 2017e for branded European peers."

[catsick] 11/5/2017 15:23

I got the note from research tree which is a decent service, not sure if this one was available to non subscribers but a bunch of stuff is on there ...

[nurdin] 10/5/2017 14:23

Do you have the Hardman note catsick? (what a handle lol)

[nurdin] 10/5/2017 14:01

Had a few this morning.Looks cheap and the chart says it could breakout strongly short term

[catsick] 04/5/2017 09:29

Hardman just put out a very upbeat note on the back of these results, seems they are doing an excellent job on these new openings and upgrades, I think we will see the real nav close to 20 pounds now,

[catsick] 02/5/2017 22:22

Looks like a very nice trading update, the new hotels seem to be doing very well, looking at the reviews on trip advisor they seem to have done a great job on the Royal park and Waterloo hotels, it sounds like now these are running well they will be able to take out some huge non recourse loans against them and pay out another monster special div, prob the reason for the very large trade that went through today ...

[sogoesit] 07/3/2017 09:08

Thanks for that trytotakeiteasy... indeed ROC is low, commensurate with a property business.

Anyway share price looking healthier now.

[trytotakeiteasy] 06/3/2017 11:21

Sogoesit - I don't think NAV gap will close. This is a profit story. However, I think the first half of this year will show strong comparatives. Croatia could be an interesting leg to the growth story.

The NAV discount does highlight the very low returns on capital that PPHE Hotel Group generates. Cost pressures are set to continue this year with the rates review in London and living wage increases.

On balance I like PPHE Hotel Group and note that net debt will start to fall going forward. However, the hotel business is not easy with investment always needed to keep the hotel estate fresh.

[sogoesit] 05/3/2017 14:07

Sure, following but investment case hasn't changed:
Net asset value discount remains high; patience required.
Waiting for new hotels/rooms to come online to boost revenue and, hopefully, profits. Operating results a bit confusing with the re-structuring that has gone on.

Since a lot of publication columns and analysts cover IHG I did a quick look to see if IHG are outperforming which it has, over the near term, but not over 2 years or more. I was positively surprised so am sticking with PPH.
I think IHG's payouts are significantly higher and, of course, the asset-lite model is significantly different to PPH. (Selling hotel properties likely to cloud the underlying performance as well).

Main issue is how the NAV discount gap gets closed?

[trytotakeiteasy] 03/3/2017 00:29

All quite on the PPHE front. Who would of thought they had just made their most important annual announcement (annual results). Obviously not many followers here?