Pphe Hotel Share Discussion Threads

[catsick] 02/5/2017 21:22

Looks like a very nice trading update, the new hotels seem to be doing very well, looking at the reviews on trip advisor they seem to have done a great job on the Royal park and Waterloo hotels, it sounds like now these are running well they will be able to take out some huge non recourse loans against them and pay out another monster special div, prob the reason for the very large trade that went through today ...

[sogoesit] 07/3/2017 09:08

Thanks for that trytotakeiteasy... indeed ROC is low, commensurate with a property business.

Anyway share price looking healthier now.

[trytotakeiteasy] 06/3/2017 11:21

Sogoesit - I don't think NAV gap will close. This is a profit story. However, I think the first half of this year will show strong comparatives. Croatia could be an interesting leg to the growth story.

The NAV discount does highlight the very low returns on capital that PPHE Hotel Group generates. Cost pressures are set to continue this year with the rates review in London and living wage increases.

On balance I like PPHE Hotel Group and note that net debt will start to fall going forward. However, the hotel business is not easy with investment always needed to keep the hotel estate fresh.

[sogoesit] 05/3/2017 14:07

Sure, following but investment case hasn't changed:
Net asset value discount remains high; patience required.
Waiting for new hotels/rooms to come online to boost revenue and, hopefully, profits. Operating results a bit confusing with the re-structuring that has gone on.

Since a lot of publication columns and analysts cover IHG I did a quick look to see if IHG are outperforming which it has, over the near term, but not over 2 years or more. I was positively surprised so am sticking with PPH.
I think IHG's payouts are significantly higher and, of course, the asset-lite model is significantly different to PPH. (Selling hotel properties likely to cloud the underlying performance as well).

Main issue is how the NAV discount gap gets closed?

[trytotakeiteasy] 03/3/2017 00:29

All quite on the PPHE front. Who would of thought they had just made their most important annual announcement (annual results). Obviously not many followers here?

[trytotakeiteasy] 28/2/2017 08:41

Results out... a bit confusing all the normalized and reported...all seems reasonably ok but will need a fair bit of analysis... trading so far this year is good....

[kirkthrust] 26/2/2017 19:57

figures tuesday..cautiously optimistic of very positive london trading..and with over 1000 extra london rooms coming on stream this year...looks well set...sub 10x yielding nearly 3% and a NAV over £16 too....

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/1/2017 07:28

Results in line with expectations... no big surprises!! However, the CEO did say:

"the second half of the year was more encouraging. Improved market conditions have continued into 2017 and we expect to make further progress, particularly as we benefit from our new room inventory in Nuremberg and London where our market position will be strengthened significantly."

[trytotakeiteasy] 26/1/2017 12:52

Fall in London RevPar for Premier Inns. Surprising but could be market oversupply.

www.investegate.co.uk/whitbread-plc--wtb-/rns/trading-statement/201701260700091448V/

However, conditions elsewhere appear to be positive at least in December:

www.hotelowner.co.uk/7972-london-reports-highest-revpar-increase-since-2012-olympics/

[sogoesit] 24/1/2017 11:04

Update should be due this week.

[trytotakeiteasy] 16/1/2017 12:02

Good to see a share price increase ahead of the full year trading update...

I was in the area and so had a look at Westminster Bridge Park Plaza and County Hall Park Plaza from the outside. I also saw an estate agent selling was selling a buy to let hotel room in the former for £300k. From what I recall Westminster Bridge used outside room investors to get the hotel off the ground. A number defaulted and as such the company kept their deposits.

General thoughts on the hotels were that they are a grade above say a Premier Inn or a Travelodge. For example, some of the Park Plaza's have swimming pools. The new Park Plaza at Waterloo seems to have fairly high hotel room rates so should be a success. However, the Royal Oak hotel doesn't appear to have opened by the end of 2016 as planned.

What was particularly notable from my quick look at the hotels is that they are very well located for the tourist trade around Westminster and the South Bank.

[sogoesit] 15/1/2017 21:12

shooting_star:
1. Its only at one hotel as far as I know, on the South Bank. A year ago I was offered a couple on a re-sale by an estate agent. It didn't look too great an investment, imo, so that means PPH were on the favourable side of the investment.
They report on an "owned rooms" basis so the asset will be excluded but they charge management fees to the room asset holder. If I recall the gross yield on the ones I was offered was about 5.5%.
There's a financial liability of £134m in the balance sheet for this "financing".

Here's the Note to the accounts from the 2015 Annual Report:

4. Financial liability in respect of Income Units sold to private investors:
In 2010, the construction of Park Plaza Westminster Bridge London was completed and the hotel opened to paying customers. Out of 1,019 rooms, 535 rooms (‘Income Units’) were sold to private investors under a 999-year lease. The sales transactions are accounted for as an investment scheme in which the investors, in return for the upfront consideration paid for the Income Units, receive 999 years of net income from a specific revenue- generating portion of an asset (contractual right to a stream of future cash flows). The amounts received upfront are accounted for as a floating-rate financial liability and are being recognised as income over the term of the lease (i.e. 999 years). Changes in future estimated cash flows from the Income Units are recognised in the period in which they occur.
On completion of each sale, the Company, through a wholly owned subsidiary, Marlbray Limited (‘MarlbrayR17;), entered into income swap agreements for five years with the private investors. The income swap agreements included an obligation of the investors to assign the right to receive the net income derived from the rooms to Marlbray and an undertaking by Marlbray to pay to the investors an annual rent guarantee of approximately 6% of the purchase price for a five-year period commencing from the date of the completion of the sale. The income swap has been accounted for as a derivative. In 2014 and 2015, Malbray entered into 56 income swap agreements for a further 5 years from the expiry date.
The entire hotel is accounted for at cost less accumulated depreciation.
The replacement costs for the sold rooms are fully reimbursed by the investors. An amount of 4% of revenues is paid by the investors on an annual basis (‘FF&E reserves’) and is accounted for in profit and loss. The difference between the actual depreciation cost and the FF&E reserve is a timing difference which is recorded on the statement of financial position as a receivable or liability to the investor in each respective year.

2. Sterling refinance last year was at 3.248% Fixed for 10 years.
Euro financing, for Dutch Hotels, was at 2.165% Fixed also for 10 years.
There were also a 10 year (Park Plaza £87m Fixed at 3.41%) and a 12 year (Westminster Bridge of £182m; £172m Fixed at 3.785%) refinancings.
These fixed portion refinancings total about £560m (GBP150m + Euro182m + £87 + £172m) and, by my calcs, are therefore about 78% of the outstanding long term debt.

[shooting_star] 13/1/2017 08:35

to holders here..I am thinking to invest in PPH having only come across it recently. I wondered if anyone could share thoughts on a couple of things:

1. what is the significance of the company having sold some of its hotel rooms to outside investors around the time of the GFC? I believe only at Westminster? but possibly other sites? I read in a hardman note that these are income units in the balance sheet?

I presume the company owns a majority of the rooms at Westminster, but private investors hold some of them?

And the adjusted NAV that makes this stock look cheap on asset basis crucially EXCLUDES the rooms sold to private investors

2. With the balance sheet heavily indebted (over 500m debt at H1) what is the sensitivity of earnings and the valuation to potentially rising interest rates? It seems like they refinanced much of their debt in 2016 and achieved Long term fixed rates of around 3.5%..so rising rates would not have much of a direct impact?

thanks for any thoughts in advance!

[sogoesit] 22/12/2016 09:40

Looks like they're spending time structuring and re-structuring the Arenaturist entity to hold all continental Europe Assets. I expect this costs money so I hope it will be a profitable exercise ... in the long run. A vehicle to sell down in Croatia?
Otherwise I'm befuddled by what the aim of all this is.

BTW last "year's" trading update was on 25 January 2016 so not expecting anything til the new year.

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/12/2016 11:37

Catsick - well we shall see. In my view, the special dividend was mistake and they should have reduced debt instead. Final quarter is strongest for trading typically so will be interesting to see how PPHE fares.

[catsick] 14/12/2016 03:12

Just got back from a week in London at short notice, all the hotels were full with ramped up rates , trading is definitely very good at all levels, it seems the weak pound has really boosted occupancy, I was paying 50 pct more than usual. Edison have just put out a bullish report on pph, they think nav is 18.5 with upside after the new openings are done, next move is going to be higher ...

[trytotakeiteasy] 12/12/2016 08:28

Sogoesit - not sure what to make of Arenaturist deal. It is quite a chunky figure to spend.

Should be a trading update soon. I have called this wrong so far as I thought the shares offered good value at this level. However, delayed openings of the two London hotels and weak trading in the first half have hit sentiment. A recent update also said that there was oversupply of London hotels.

[sogoesit] 09/12/2016 10:15

Park Royal only available from March 1 2017.

London "Waterloo" is on other side of the tracks to the river; open, but pricing cheaper than the River "side" hotels at £185/night/standard room vs £205-£233 for next weekend.

Seems Arenaturist is now becoming an asset holder focus.

[trytotakeiteasy] 08/12/2016 15:01

yes hotel opening were delayed. Hence the earnings downgrade for 2016 by analysts. Both hotels are due to open this year with Waterloo now open and Park Royal not appearing to be open yet.

[sogoesit] 08/12/2016 08:39

Will do some research. If I recall they said Autumn.

[sogoesit] 31/10/2016 09:10

Indeed, gross revenue for 9 months up 28%.
Still fair amount of "dynamics" in hotel assets and Arenaturist... Will it ever settle down?
Overall much better than last quarter's update.

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/10/2016 08:19

At first glance this looks like a reasonable update to me.... like-for-like RevPar up strongly in the third quarter. Looks like a bounce back from the weak first half..all in all should be well placed going forward..

[trytotakeiteasy] 26/10/2016 14:59

Thanks Sogoesit.. looks like reasonably strong demand... I imagine they will do very well in the Xmas holiday season given two new London hotels open and the demand for people to have Xmas and New Year's in London given the weak pound... however, Park Plaza Waterloo only looks set to open 1 January when I tried to make a booking.... so that may be delayed even further as I thought it was meant to open later this year..