Portmeirion Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 18/7/2024 22:56

Yes he did tip it in Sep 23 but he also tipped it in July23 ; here is his entry from sep 23.
"The profit warning led to a 28 per cent share price reversal and makes my buy call, at 457p, three months ago ill-timed. It also means that Portmeirion’s enterprise valuation of £47mn equates to only five times current-year downgraded cash profit estimates and four times 2024 forecasts, a massive discount to rival Churchill China (CHH:1,385p), which is priced on multiples of 10 times (2023) and 9.2 times (2024). Portmeirion's shares also trade on a deep 41 per cent discount to book value of 476p."

I know because I followed this bad advice in July23!

[value hound] 18/7/2024 16:23

He tipped it in September last year at 285p.

Personally, I think it's worth more like £4 FWIW, but they have to 'prove' it of course - which may be easier said than done. Time will tell.

I bought it during the pandemic then sold too early as usual, but bought even back more cheaply this year with a couple of buys (best was 215p).

[wad collector] 18/7/2024 15:43

Though he was also tipping these at a fiver last summer!
Good to see a turnaround appearing.

[value hound] 18/7/2024 13:26

Re-tipped by Simon Thompson:

Intro:

"This company's earnings recovery is very underrated

"Stoke-on-Trent-based Portmeirion (PMP:233p), a leading UK ceramics manufacturer and retailer, is on course to deliver a strong earnings recovery this year even though conditions in the South Korean market remain challenging."

Conclusion:

"Of course, the second half earnings bias increases investment risk especially as the group is expected to be loss-making in the first half of 2024. However, with the shares rated on modest prospective PE ratios of 10 (2024) and 6 (2025), and underpinned by forward dividend yields of 3.2 per cent (2024) and 5.2 per cent (2025), there is already a decent ‘margin of safety’ embedded in the current share price. If Portmeirion’s management’s confidence proves well founded, then expect a re-rating to narrow the 32 per cent discount to tangible book value of 339p.

So, having rated the shares a hold, at 245p, when I covered the annual results (‘Portmeirion cuts a leaner figure for challenging times’, 27 March 2024), I now feel they are worth buying ahead of the next trading update in September. Speculative buy."

[essentialinvestor] 18/7/2024 10:32

No update on net debt numbers?.

[value hound] 18/7/2024 10:21

Synopsis from Singer FWIW:
-

Portmeirion in its H1 trading statement has maintained FY profit expectations. H1 revenue as previously flagged is lower (-17%), but this masks an encouraging 5% y/y growth ex South Korea. Commentary around cost savings, Wax Lyrical and the US Christmas order book is also positive. We leave numbers unchanged for now and while there is much work to do over H2 to hit our FY PBT estimate, we are encouraged by the areas of progress in H1. For now we stay at Hold but once headwinds wane and confidence builds around forecasts, the shares on an undemanding FY25 valuation of 5.4x P/E and 3x EV/EBITDA should re-rate significantly.

[value hound] 18/7/2024 08:18

Still looks great value to me - good update, albeit a mixed bag.

[wad collector] 17/7/2024 22:46

Hmm. Slipping back towards a new low despite wider market recovery. Not auspicious.

[my retirement fund] 02/6/2024 18:05

There was a Port Merion outlet shop on the Trentham Gardens estate i visited last week. Looked very empty of customers to me.

[wad collector] 02/6/2024 16:32

Going back to the provenance issue , we just bought some ceramics from Portmeiron online sales through Amazon site, described of as Royal Worcester Bone China but no clue on the listing that it is made in India but that is stamped on the bottom.
So am I supporting British Industry ?

[wad collector] 02/5/2024 14:50

Ming is definitely better ; should set up a couple of production lines in China...

[my retirement fund] 01/5/2024 20:12

Bring back lustreware I say !

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/5/2024 18:53

vh

For what it's worth I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility to revive the Stoke ceramics industry. Why not produce Wedgwood Jasper Ware dinner sets at a mid range price instead of just trinket dishes and small posy vases.

And if you don't know what Doulton Lambeth is take a look on eBay, some of it's magnificent in my opinion and the designs are timeless.

[value hound] 01/5/2024 18:41

ALS - they do some manufacturing in Stoke, "Portmeirion potteries continues to manufacture Susan's designs as well as others in the same factory in Stoke-on-Trent to this very day." see hxxps://www.portmeirion.co.uk/portmeirion-about-us

- but I've no idea how it breaks down.

I just think they're worth >£4 on recovery.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/5/2024 18:04

Hi value hound

I have some PMP but one thing I don't like is that they seem to be doing their manufacturing in China now. I collect china and have a preference for buying British brands made in Britain, German brands made in Germany etc.

I know you could argue that it's only made so much difference to every other good we used to manufacture but it doesn't seem quite right to me.

I guess though there's a fair chance the consumer of the future won't mind, the real value is in the design.

[value hound] 01/5/2024 17:50

Bit of a write-up on Master Investor FWIW....

The end of March saw this ceramics and homeware products group announce a disappointing set of results for the year to end December 2023.

The company, which owns six major brands that are sold into some 80 countries across the world, had been hit for six by tough trading conditions in both its South Korean and its US markets.

Sales were down from £110.8m to £102.7m, with adjusted pre-tax profits of £3.0m (£8.0m), collapsing earnings to 22.4p (46.8p), while slicing its dividend down to 5.50p (15.50p) per share.

Conditions are still challenging but the business should see a steadier year in 2024, before showing a clear recovery in the next year.

The group’s Management has been working upon improving both its productivity and its operating margins.

It has also lined up new product launches in the current year, with customer reactions proving positive.

CEO Mike Raybould has stated that:

“We continue to work on productivity improvements in our factory and together with work done in the last 3 months to reach a much leaner global cost base we have a strong platform to improve operating margins once markets normalise.

We also expect this to help us achieve further reductions in net debt which remains one of our priorities.

We are confident in the strength and resilience of our brands that have over 750 years of combined heritage and continue to grow market share even in the current tough macro-economic environment.

We are pleased with the continued strategic progress we have made and remain confident in our long-term strategy to grow sales and improve operating margins.”

Analyst Sahill Shan at Singer Capital Markets is confident about the group’s mid-term growth but is waiting to see clearer signs of the group’s revenue and margin recovery.

Over at Shore Capital Markets its analysts, Rob Sanders and Bradley Hughes, believe that the Management shorter-term strategy is to return its margins to a 10% EBIT business then up to 12.5%.

Market expectations are for sales this year of around £100m, but with profits improving 50% to £4.5m, lifting earnings to 25p and the dividend to 7.5p per share.

For the coming year to end December 2025 estimates are for £105m sales, £7.0m profits, 39p of earnings and 12p of dividends per share.

Further out some £110m revenues in 2026 could boost profits to £10m, earnings to over 55p enabling a dividend of some 17.5p per share.

The group’s shares, which were 265p before the results, subsequently eased back to 214p at the start of last month.

They have been gradually showing some price recovery to 269.90p on Monday of this week – with the gradual uplift being propped by fairly low dealing volumes.

Hopefully we will get some positive trading signals being outlined when the £36m capitalised group holds its AGM in three weeks’ time.

In the meantime, the shares at last night’s closing price of 262.50p are not looking expensive, while holding substantial upside potential as the recovery takes hold.

[wad collector] 25/4/2024 08:44

Xd tuppence today.

[my retirement fund] 09/4/2024 12:15

Anyone listening to tomorrow's presentation?

[wad collector] 07/4/2024 10:17

Simon Thompson opinions in IC that Portmeirion is a Hold @245p. The bad news in the results might be offset by restructuring and productivity improvements, and the tangible book value of 339p is a reassurance if the headwinds reduce.
Mind you he said hold in Sep and it has fallen 25p since then and another 20p since his advice....

[napoleon 14th] 29/3/2024 16:31

From Small Caps Life, whose unforgiving analysis I rate highly:

"This may well prove the cyclical low in trading, but given all that, it is hard to trust that the real financial performance of the business will recover anytime soon."

[e-mail] Free subscription.
Well worth a read.

[my retirement fund] 28/3/2024 09:41

Coming back down to earth now, no investment case here. Move along.

[richyst] 27/3/2024 11:55

I’m pleased they reduced net debt as predicted. If the home fragrance write down is stripped out they did actually make a profit.

[wad collector] 26/3/2024 20:59

Prelims not helped my hope.
Weaker as expected , but some depressing words in the commentary.

[wad collector] 18/3/2024 10:54

Promising bounce today, still a long way off the £5 of a year ago though. Hold and hope.

[wad collector] 08/3/2024 19:43

Some buying coming in at 239p today, is the worst behind us?