Portmeirion Share Discussion Threads

[pireric] 29/7/2021 22:05

To expand on that last point. If you run the maths back to 2010, Portmeirion has always churned out around 60% of its full year sales in the second half. The £90m broker forecast is only 52%. If you pencil in 60%, the implied sales for the year is £107.5m, which is 20% higher than the actual forecast. So I'll stick to my wording that you need an absolute disaster second half not to significantly exceed the broker expectation and there are no signs at all that will be the case. To the contrary, you have offline retail opening back up when much of it in the UK was closed in the first quarter. And a strong global order book. Eric

[pireric] 20/7/2021 10:25

I reckon they have to pull out of the hat a disaster second half not to significantly exceed the FY broker forecasts. Which is nice as it should mean we can look forward to f/c upgrades as they report the rest of the fiscal year A lot of retail will be placing their orders now or will have already done so months back. Especially this year with tight supply chains and to secure Christmas stock. Id be surprised if they dont already have good visibility into the outturn for the year being a good one. The FY broker forecast for sales is £90m, meaning they need £47m in the second half of this year. In a covid 2020, they did over £55m in the second half of last year. Eric

[asagi] 20/7/2021 10:17

I reckon this will make a trip back up towards £7, as the dip post trading update was shortsighted, in my opinion. Feels like the move post trading update was in the wrong direction? The shares actually look cheap enough to buy again, so congratulations to any topper uppers. Asagi (long PMP)

[pireric] 20/7/2021 09:43

Pleased they strongly grew online y/y in core territories over what would have been a difficult comparison number At these levels PMP is on 16x current year earnings (too high given I think f/casts will prove well too light). But then that drops rapidly to only 10.6x 2022 and 9.1x 2023 earnings forecasts. I reckon this will make a trip back up towards £7, as the dip post trading update was shortsighted, in my opinion. Eric

[aublune] 19/7/2021 16:39

I buy some today. portmeiron did 43 million pounds of sales in the first half but their year is alwasys centred on christmas and the market estimate is only 90m million pounds. Portmeiron is only on 12.8 stockopedia P/E estimate. I am happy to be here as a shareholder with a share price now 610 pence compared to 700 pence before

[illiswilgig] 15/7/2021 13:32

Whittler - thank you, I'd not seen that. Useful corroboration as far as it goes. Looks like the price has been dragged down by Killik reducing their stake. I'm happy to have a few of those myself and am still buying as and when I can free up some funds, cheers

[rmillaree] 15/7/2021 13:17

I didnt even realise there was a new? Singer update - so thanks for flagging that up. A google search has failed to turn up owt (may be my failings) If anyone can advise what they said that would be appreciated

[whittler100] 15/7/2021 12:55

I am sure posters on here will have picked the header note from Singer following the PMP update. Not massively informative but worth putting in the file although I rather feel many PIs do their own quality estimates anyway: See Research Tree site for view of free header.

[rmillaree] 15/7/2021 07:26

Is it not a slight cop out to not provide projected figures ? Surely they could start with big range ref turnover and profits and at least give us something to go on. I simply don’t accept that company don’t have internal estimates so why not let those be known clearly? Presuming they have a house broker they have discussions with surely they are given a nod and a wink so why say Dudley squat to shareholders? Doesn’t put me off enough to sell but it is slightly frustrating not being given owt of use despite that info existing.

[illiswilgig] 14/7/2021 16:11

Whittler, thank you - that's a useful bit of insight into the limited range of H2 versus H1 sales. The broker forecast on Stockopedia appears to be the same. Savagely cut from 67p to 37p in September last year and not touched since. Target shareprice remains at 920p though. Suggests to me that either the two analysts apparently covering it have stopped and/or they don't have any more information to go on than we do. I like that. It gives us an edge? Thank you, Whittler, Asagi and all for your insights, cheers

[whittler100] 14/7/2021 15:56

Agreed Asagi, historically PMP don’t tend to comment on the full year likely achievement against expectations until the January Trading Update. At least when the H1s are released, scheduled for 14th September we will have a touch more information and view of July, August trading. The only ref I have to expectations for 2021 is the broker forecast on SharePad which has £90m predicted turnover. I rather feel it will be significantly higher than that but we will have to wait for the January TU. In terms of predictability of H2/H1 the range for the past 10 years has been reasonably predictable with a low of 2.4 & a high of 2.7 and remained in that range after taking on Wax Lyrical. I did have a long association with PMP pre S Korea; sold on the PW but reentered in 2020. Anyway, I am happy to hold and it’s reassuring that dividend payments will be reassumed.

[asagi] 14/7/2021 14:36

a bit unreasonable for anyone to be expecting a reference to full year expectations at this stage. Portmeirion have always been clear, H2 is hard to predict and SO important. I very much doubt we will hear anything about the likely full year outturn until January 2022. Asagi (long PMP)

[whittler100] 14/7/2021 13:21

Some good discussion regarding PMP both here and on Stocko; a few thoughts from me: I have gone through the TU today from PMP and going back through recent years to 2018, accounting/deducting turnover from acquisitions it would appear that H1 for PMP is the highest or equal highest (we wait for the H1 results) since the incorporation of Wax Lyrical. For the sake of brevity; my estimates are: Usual H2/H1 for PMP is around 2.5 so, using the data in the TU and the H1 2019 turnover; it seems that the H1 for Pre-Nombe/100% Canada was £37m with an additional £6m from Nombe + extra 50% (full ownership of Canada). If we assume the usual 2.5 H2/H1 then “old PMP” alone gives a turnover of £92.5m. Then we need to add in Nombe & the extra 50% Canada which I estimate as £6.0m in H1. Being cautious let's assume that this stays the same in H2 ie full-year = £12m So, being cautious, I estimate a turnover for 2021, based on what we know at the moment, of say £104m against a brokers forecast turnover of only £90m for 2021, If all goes well that’s a significant beat in terms of turnover. As for PTP, we will have to wait until the H1s are announced. Overall and including the return to dividend payments, I feel very confident about prospects for PMP.

[illiswilgig] 14/7/2021 09:23

Well that does surprise me! But then I am really bad at predicting a market reaction to anything. So far the market doesn't think much of the trading update. As a consolation I've bought a few more, cheaper than yesterday would have been. cheers

[illiswilgig] 14/7/2021 08:28

H1 trading statement this morning. 'Sales for the first half of the year will be approximately £43.0 million (2020: £32.0 million), representing an increase of 34% compared to the prior period' Which has blown my forecast right out of the water. Though it is only H1 traditionally the weakest half by far. But it doesn't stop there.... Against pre Covid-19 performance in H1 2019, our like-for-like sales at a constant currency are up by 6% (excluding the benefit of Nambé acquired in July 2019 and the remaining 50% of the issued share capital of Portmeirion Canada acquired in August 2020).'' Growth on pre-covid levels is pretty impressive for H1. And it looks as if Nambe has also done well. Should improve H1 margins - which are always low. 'We have also continued to see strong sales growth in online channels in our major markets.' Especially since on-line direct sales are higher margin. My forecast for 4p eps in H1 now looks too low, but its hard to put anything more than a finger in the air right now - but if I did I'd go for 6p+. Once we see the outlook statement with the H1 results in September we'll know more as a lot of the export Christmas orders will have shipped by then? But it looks much better than I'd expected. cheers

[illiswilgig] 28/6/2021 13:14

Eric - thank you for the link to the Richard Beddard article. I do respect his opinion. Though we don't alwys agree on whether its a buy or a sell. I had also begun to feel that Portmerion had lost its way and that the purchase of Wax Lyrical and then Nambe might have become a distraction instead of an opportunity. Then I listened to a webinar presentation on 'Investor meet company' - and realised that Mike Raybould, previously FD and now CEO, not only knows the company inside out, understands the market and the opportunity but also knows what needs to be done in order for it to get back on track. For the first time it seemed that someone understood how to fit it all together. It may turn out that the pandemic has strengthened his hand in allowing him to make changes much more quickly than otherwise would have been the case. I reversed my opinion and started buying again. So its useful corroboration that Richard Beddard is coming to the same view. cheers

[davr0s] 28/6/2021 12:44

Sorry disagree - share price will move up if buying pressure increases for any reason. There does not have to be news for that to happen. And it can equally go down in the same way

[asagi] 28/6/2021 12:31

for the share price to be much higher, stuff needs to changes and plans need to come together. sort out Korea strong performance online make economies in the factory Wax Lyrical and Nambé to start firing not saying that none of this will happen. But I think that the market wants to see proof that we are set for success first. Hopefully July's trading statement will help and then again in September with results to end-June. Asagi (long PMP)

[aublune] 28/6/2021 11:38

this is a lovely group of brand and a cheap company price. Does anyone know why the share price is stuck at 700. It should be much higher

[pireric] 26/6/2021 16:53

Caveat that 2019 was a down year for the business as a whole, and Wax Lyrical was still generating £15m or thereabouts of revenue. The article makes a good point that until the new management team the Portmeirion story had lost its way. There was no clear focus on margin improvements, eCommerce or the like. Many of the manufacturing improvements they are finally putting through should have been done 5 years ago, frankly. I wouldn't at all bucket Nambe into the same discussion as Wax Lyrical. They'd only bought Nambe in the middle of 2019 and then walked into covid. As much of their channel is through retailers, surely there is no real surprise that it did not contribute to profit last year (when the whole group's profit was only marginally positive) Eric

[asagi] 26/6/2021 16:09

and hopefully we will learn more with the planned trading statement in July. I'm hoping for good news on Korea and some warm words about margins thanks to the shift to online sales. Hopefully takes us to 800p. The Nambé and Wax Lyrical situation is depressing. Asagi (long PMP)

[pireric] 25/6/2021 17:43

Good Richard Beddard write up that published mid afternoon today on PMP. Concludes more favourably on it than he expected to. HTTps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/richard-beddard-conclusion-might-shock-some-you-ii520657 The forecasts leave PMP on 12.3x 2021 forecast EPS, 10.4x 2022 forecast EPS. If they execute against those numbers then the stock is left looking rather cheap. Eric

[asagi] 09/6/2021 14:35

I understand that Portmeirion will issue a trading update on H1 in July and that proper H1 results will be released early September. Asagi (long PMP)