Portmeirion Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/5/2024 17:04

Hi value hound

I have some PMP but one thing I don't like is that they seem to be doing their manufacturing in China now. I collect china and have a preference for buying British brands made in Britain, German brands made in Germany etc.

I know you could argue that it's only made so much difference to every other good we used to manufacture but it doesn't seem quite right to me.

I guess though there's a fair chance the consumer of the future won't mind, the real value is in the design.

[value hound] 01/5/2024 16:50

Bit of a write-up on Master Investor FWIW....

The end of March saw this ceramics and homeware products group announce a disappointing set of results for the year to end December 2023.

The company, which owns six major brands that are sold into some 80 countries across the world, had been hit for six by tough trading conditions in both its South Korean and its US markets.

Sales were down from £110.8m to £102.7m, with adjusted pre-tax profits of £3.0m (£8.0m), collapsing earnings to 22.4p (46.8p), while slicing its dividend down to 5.50p (15.50p) per share.

Conditions are still challenging but the business should see a steadier year in 2024, before showing a clear recovery in the next year.

The group’s Management has been working upon improving both its productivity and its operating margins.

It has also lined up new product launches in the current year, with customer reactions proving positive.

CEO Mike Raybould has stated that:

“We continue to work on productivity improvements in our factory and together with work done in the last 3 months to reach a much leaner global cost base we have a strong platform to improve operating margins once markets normalise.

We also expect this to help us achieve further reductions in net debt which remains one of our priorities.

We are confident in the strength and resilience of our brands that have over 750 years of combined heritage and continue to grow market share even in the current tough macro-economic environment.

We are pleased with the continued strategic progress we have made and remain confident in our long-term strategy to grow sales and improve operating margins.”

Analyst Sahill Shan at Singer Capital Markets is confident about the group’s mid-term growth but is waiting to see clearer signs of the group’s revenue and margin recovery.

Over at Shore Capital Markets its analysts, Rob Sanders and Bradley Hughes, believe that the Management shorter-term strategy is to return its margins to a 10% EBIT business then up to 12.5%.

Market expectations are for sales this year of around £100m, but with profits improving 50% to £4.5m, lifting earnings to 25p and the dividend to 7.5p per share.

For the coming year to end December 2025 estimates are for £105m sales, £7.0m profits, 39p of earnings and 12p of dividends per share.

Further out some £110m revenues in 2026 could boost profits to £10m, earnings to over 55p enabling a dividend of some 17.5p per share.

The group’s shares, which were 265p before the results, subsequently eased back to 214p at the start of last month.

They have been gradually showing some price recovery to 269.90p on Monday of this week – with the gradual uplift being propped by fairly low dealing volumes.

Hopefully we will get some positive trading signals being outlined when the £36m capitalised group holds its AGM in three weeks’ time.

In the meantime, the shares at last night’s closing price of 262.50p are not looking expensive, while holding substantial upside potential as the recovery takes hold.

[wad collector] 25/4/2024 07:44

Xd tuppence today.

[my retirement fund] 09/4/2024 11:15

Anyone listening to tomorrow's presentation?

[wad collector] 07/4/2024 09:17

Simon Thompson opinions in IC that Portmeirion is a Hold @245p. The bad news in the results might be offset by restructuring and productivity improvements, and the tangible book value of 339p is a reassurance if the headwinds reduce.
Mind you he said hold in Sep and it has fallen 25p since then and another 20p since his advice....

[napoleon 14th] 29/3/2024 16:31

From Small Caps Life, whose unforgiving analysis I rate highly:

"This may well prove the cyclical low in trading, but given all that, it is hard to trust that the real financial performance of the business will recover anytime soon."

[e-mail] Free subscription.
Well worth a read.

[my retirement fund] 28/3/2024 09:41

Coming back down to earth now, no investment case here. Move along.

[richyst] 27/3/2024 11:55

I’m pleased they reduced net debt as predicted. If the home fragrance write down is stripped out they did actually make a profit.

[wad collector] 26/3/2024 20:59

Prelims not helped my hope.
Weaker as expected , but some depressing words in the commentary.

[wad collector] 18/3/2024 10:54

Promising bounce today, still a long way off the £5 of a year ago though. Hold and hope.

[wad collector] 08/3/2024 19:43

Some buying coming in at 239p today, is the worst behind us?

[crystball1] 22/2/2024 17:05

Has a bottoming out of the share price occurred now? I thought the trading update in January was satisfactory plus the outlook also. The unknown is whether or not the dividend (over 7% at today's share price) will be maintained. I watch with interest from the sidelines and will do further research.

[pugugly] 01/2/2024 10:45

Still feel that the social change in entertaining to informal from formal is too strong a headwind. With change in entertaining environment very reduced demand for formal dinner ware.

[wad collector] 01/2/2024 10:18

Ouch that's a new 14 yr low , looks like it's going to have to be a long hold to get me back in the blue...

Simon Thompson has been singing the praises here all the way down from £5 last year , for example in July

Portmeirion shareholders should hold their nerve after profit warning
A ceramics maker has been hit by destocking by retailers in North America, but there is recovery potential next year.


We would have done better to sell then for £4.

[value hound] 23/1/2024 16:38

Update from Simon Thompson, FWIW, who concludes with:

"On this basis, the shares trade 50 per cent below book value, on a price/earnings (PE) ratio of 9.3, and offer a 6.6 per cent dividend yield. Although the payout is safe as gearing is only 11 per cent, overseas headwinds need to abate for a share price recovery. Hold."

[richyst] 22/1/2024 20:19

Could it be the higher interest costs that hurt the bottom line?

[richyst] 22/1/2024 19:25

The update says they expect a return to growth in sales in 2024, and also a healthy operating margin improvement. So surely that means higher profits? But the share price goes down! I don’t understand!

[pugugly] 22/1/2024 17:45

Could this also be having an impact on sales??
"Dinner parties are back: but smaller, more casual – and with Twiglets"
So less need or affordability for formal dinnerware.

[my retirement fund] 22/1/2024 16:10

Still reckon NAMBE had destroyed the long-term prospects here to get through the lean times. The fact the shareprice is at all time lows and still the CEO and FD's barge pole share purchases with their own money speaks volumes.

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2024 14:37

The problem is that after 10% YOY inflation, they have not beaten 22 revenue, and that's despite cutting right back on inventory. That tells me it's going to be an uphill struggle to turn a profit. 2024 could be ugly, they will certainly have to trim back forward market expectations come March result. Far from out of the woods and the market knows it.

[wad collector] 17/1/2024 14:28

Well , thumbs down from the market. The problem is partly that the general pessimism views every situation as half empty. PMP is one for the patient ....

[value hound] 17/1/2024 08:16

Yes - the challenging comment coupled with the inflation figs...

[cwa1] 17/1/2024 08:00

Thought it was a little bit mixed. Some good points, with the "we expect 2024 to be challenging" likely to be picked up by many! We'll see how the market takes it. Could've been worse but room for better!

[value hound] 17/1/2024 07:54

Good update - the current share price was pricing in a lot of pessimism IMO; can't really see why it isn't close to twice where it is.

[cwa1] 16/1/2024 13:06

Trading update must surely be imminent?