Portmeirion Share Discussion Threads

[whalehq] 20/7/2023 09:37

Horrible trading update and even more horrible broker notes.

I don't track high street retail in the US but can only assume it's suffering from a similar demise to here, however large parks with the right mix of shops in my experience are still quite busy.
Nonetheless department store destocking could be a nasty grinding headwind for PMP.

I do think there durability in the product offering however and honestly believe them when they say week to week sales data is resilient. Management clearly have to find alternative routes to market which they clearly are doing via the website.

As stated horrible day but even if you lop 10m of the inventory it still has a strong balance sheet as I see it.

Divi seems to be c. 6% of todays price and net debt to reduce by year end. Thats comforting.

[the codger] 20/7/2023 08:47

A buy on my list

[tiredoldbroker] 20/7/2023 08:43

Never buy immediately on unexpected misery, but this goes on the 'watch' list for when the dust settles.

[the codger] 20/7/2023 07:49

Overreaction on this one,good company.

[pugugly] 20/7/2023 07:45

House broker target reduced to 355p so still some way to go and house brokers usually optimistic so guess as to how much further to fall?

[pireric] 20/7/2023 07:18

Revised 2023 EPS forecast is 16.8p, rising to 33.4p in 2024

Eric

[melody9999] 20/7/2023 07:03

Marked down 30% but was already on a PE of under 7 before today!

Significantly under may be -10 or -15% but even so we are crazy cheap.

[bigbigdave] 20/7/2023 07:03

Ouch, sympathy to holders, was on my 'buy' watchlist.

[aublune] 20/7/2023 06:32

"Although consumer markets are clearly tougher than 12 months ago, we continue to invest in our long-term strategy for sales and operating margin growth.

Whilst retailer order flow in North America is currently challenging, our data clearly indicates that end customer demand remains robust, indeed is up on last year. Accordingly, it is important that we ensure that we maintain the investment in our capabilities in North America for when the short-term uncertainty subsides.

Other key markets have performed in line with our expectations, and we remain confident that we are retaining market share gains made in recent years. We are pleased with our new product launches and the work we have done to grow operating margins which will benefit the Company in the medium and longer term."

[aublune] 20/7/2023 06:31

profit warning :( US weak because of destocking

[darrin1471] 17/7/2023 16:24

Pounds strength vs the USD and South Korean Won likely to prove costly for exporters?
Hold no position in PMP. Just watching.

[zho] 17/7/2023 06:42

Churchill China "is pleased to confirm that trading remained in line with the Board's expectations for the half year and that it expects the Group to meet its profit expectations for the full year" ...

... although as noted above CHH has only modest exposure to the US, flagged as a possible problem area for PMP back in May.

PMP issued a H1 TU last year in mid July, so we may hear something from them this week.

[zho] 06/7/2023 09:37

Yesterday's trades from 15.50 suggested PMP had been tipped somewhere, but I couldn't find anything.

[cwa1] 06/7/2023 09:35

Tiny bit of perkiness shown over the past couple of days. Anyone seen a reason for it?

[rossco] 12/6/2023 20:58

Revenue from USA was £43.8m in 2022 amounting to 39%. So any fall off in their US business would be quite significant.
Feel that the PMP price drop is harsh considering the positive news about Christmas orders.

[zho] 08/6/2023 06:51

Churchill China's AGM TU this morning:

"Trading remains in line with our expectations, with export markets continuing to perform well. We have made further progress on our initiatives to improve margin, whilst continuing to invest in our established strategy and remain on track to achieve our full year profit expectations."

CHH makes 11% of its revenue in the USA. I think PMP has a greater exposure to America - something like 20% - but I can't find the exact figure.

[zho] 04/6/2023 09:50

Paul Scott discusses the 23/5/23 TU at from 12:10.

Paul thinks the RNS was badly worded and that a nervy market over-reacted to an in-line statement. He sees the reference to cautious US markets as a warning that there might be a profits warning in future, notes that broker forecasts are unchanged, and mentions tailwinds from falling shipping costs.

[darrin1471] 23/5/2023 12:29

I also believe the drop is due to flagged US uncertainty.

I would expect PMP to know exactly how coronation sales went, through their online channels and wholesale orders. Uncertainty may exist about how long those sales will continue before they need to be put in the sale section.

[shanklin] 23/5/2023 12:13

Quite surprised the word "Coronation" made no appearance in today's RNS. Perhaps it wasn't at all material to sales

[wad collector] 23/5/2023 09:42

I suppose that there is a bit of a cautious phrasing in the TU that can be read negatively if that is the way the market is looking.

[2nddegree] 23/5/2023 09:02

I’d be amazed if they’ve had time to factor in the Coronation sales into that RNS statement.

Drop is due to flagged US uncertainty IMO

[my retirement fund] 23/5/2023 08:51

No ahead! After the Coronation a major negative!! Certainly won't be an event anytime soon like that

[zho] 23/5/2023 08:30

Perhaps I'm missing something but I'm a little surprised by the reaction to what appears to be a trading inline statement.

Edison expect significant margin improvement of 1.5% (to 9.3% from 2022's 7.8%) - presumably partly due to the rapidly reducing shipping costs, highlighted above – and I would have expected this, together with a “strong Christmas order book”, to balance the caution over US sales.

[volsung] 23/5/2023 08:12

Bought a few more
Cheap stock
Results in line
TU covered a traditionally quiet period

[zho] 23/5/2023 07:22

Edison: Portmeirion has issued a brief AGM statement covering the traditionally quieter period of the year. Progress has been made YTD with geographical diversity and self-help being supportive features we understand. Overall, the expectation is for a flat H1 performance, which in the context of a challenging consumer backdrop would be a creditable outcome. We note USA has been singled out as showing customer caution in recent weeks re ordering and will need to be closely monitored over Q2. With c.80% of profits being H2 weighted, investors should welcome reference to initial Christmas order intake being ahead of the comparative period. NPD has also been well received. We make no forecast changes at this stage, opting to see how trading fares over the next few months. For reference we assume a conservative 2% top-line growth for FY23 and a 150bps EBIT margin improvement to primarily reflect an easing of supply side pressures and ongoing self-help benefits, e.g. automation. The shares have had a strong recovery (+68% YTD) from oversold levels and trade on a YR1 P/E of 10x, 5.6x EV/EBITDA and yield 3.4%.