Portmeirion Share Discussion Threads

[farnesbarnes] 14/1/2022 18:27

Small Caps Life:

Portmerion (PMP.L) - Trading Update
Portmeirion Group PLC, the designer, manufacturer and worldwide distributor of high quality homewares under the Portmeirion, Spode, Royal Worcester, Pimpernel, Wax Lyrical and Nambé brands, updates on full year trading for 2021.
They have been on a diversification spree recently thus Wax Lyrical and Nambe. We suspect they did this just as tastes finally turned back towards their more twee core products!
We are pleased to report an excellent Christmas seasonal trading period, with very high demand for our consumer homeware brands around the world and strong sell-through across our key channels. We therefore now expect sales to be at least £104 million or 10% above current consensus market expectation forecasts for FY21. This is 18% above 2020 sales of £87.9 million and 12% ahead of pre-Covid sales of £92.8 million in 2019.
10% is materiality and the point at which they have to report a variation from market expectations. Their last trading update was 11th November where they upped by 5%.
When the results were published in H1 Leo expected to see a Full Year revenue beat vs £90m forecasts. But by the 11th November trading update, he thought his £103m forecast revenue was looking very difficult given time left in the year. Yet they did it. So there seems to be some conservatism in their guidance here. We suspect they deliberately kept 5-10% back in the November update. Any more than 10% would have been misleading the market / required an interim trading update.
This represents the highest ever level of sales for the Group driven by strong progress on our strategy in developing new sales channels, particularly online.
As a result we expect our profit before tax for FY21 will be at least £7.0 million, an increase of 9% over current consensus market expectations and a multiple increase compared to £1.4 million in 2020.
Ideally, we'd like to see operational gearing mean profits grow faster than revenue. Hopefully, the implied increase in admin costs versus November expectations has a one-off element. But ultimately these figures are dead on what Leo forecast in September by splitting out recent acquisitions and considering the historical H1/H2 split.
We are mindful of ongoing Covid risks and their potential impact on sales markets, global supply chains and the associated cost inflation, particularly in container shipping.
People who don't follow the company may be surprised that they don't mention energy costs here. However, this was covered in November when they said:
We note the widespread press in recent weeks on energy intensive industries. We have made significant progress in recent years in reducing our energy usage and will continue to invest in 'green' initiatives as a core part of our strategy. As a central part of our business, our ceramics factory in Stoke-on-Trent buys energy under long term contracts. In the first half of 2021 we extended those contracts until early 2024. As a result, we do not expect to be materially impacted by the latest rising energy prices.
Of course, you don't hedge 100% of anything because reduced demand would leave you exposed to hedging losses. And given that demand has turned out to be strong since H1 2021, presumably production has been at the upper end of projections and so they will have suffered some increased energy costs, just not materially.
Here's the best news in the statement:
We expect further growth in 2022 and with the current uncertainty will wait to update the market with detail on the outlook for the current financial year at the time of the preliminary results in March.
So perhaps another upgrade is on its way?

[mach100] 12/1/2022 19:49

I don't know what you heard about me but I am a mothafackin P(i)MP as 50 cent says. Lots to like in todays update and while I accept there has been dilution as noted above, to get ahead of pre-covid levels is excellent work. Doing very well in the US which is obviously a huge market and shored up South Korea this appears to be a low-key company that is off a lot of investors radar. Undeservedly so. Buy.

[1tx] 12/1/2022 10:14

We are probably fairly close to the pre covid shareprice in terms of earnings per share at the present shareprice when we adjust for the dilutive fund raising in 2020,which was at about 370p if I remember correctly.I invested here at this time.We would need to get earnings up about 20% above 2019 level to justify old share price.But I am pleased with progress to date which is much better than I expected.

[zangdook] 12/1/2022 08:44

If as indicated they reinstate the dividend with the results (in March, I think?) that should help.

[wad collector] 12/1/2022 08:31

Hard to see anything to complain about there! Surely the pre-covid £8+ prices will be revisited again soon?

[cwa1] 12/1/2022 08:21

Happy New Year all :-)

Very solid update this morning:-



12 January 2022


Portmeirion Group PLC (the 'Group')


FY21 Trading Update


Portmeirion Group PLC, the designer, manufacturer and worldwide distributor of high quality homewares under the Portmeirion, Spode, Royal Worcester, Pimpernel, Wax Lyrical and Nambé brands, updates on full year trading for 2021.

We are pleased to report an excellent Christmas seasonal trading period, with very high demand for our consumer homeware brands around the world and strong sell-through across our key channels. We therefore now expect sales to be at least £104 million or 10% above current consensus market expectation forecasts for FY21. This is 18% above 2020 sales of £87.9 million and 12% ahead of pre-Covid sales of £92.8 million in 2019.

This represents the highest ever level of sales for the Group driven by strong progress on our strategy in developing new sales channels, particularly online.

As a result we expect our profit before tax for FY21 will be at least £7.0 million, an increase of 9% over current consensus market expectations and a multiple increase compared to £1.4 million in 2020.

Mike Raybould, Chief Executive commented:

"I am delighted with the progress we have made as a business. Our sales result - approximately 12% above pre-Covid highs - is a real testament to the changes we are driving through our business and the experience and efforts of our teams across the world who continue to navigate the many challenges that Covid still presents. The ongoing execution of our strategy allows us to reach more customers through investing in and developing online channels, launching new product and building-out new markets.

Although our key seasonal sales period came later than usual due to global supply chain disruption affecting availability of stock, it finished very strongly, particularly in the US market. We are becoming an increasingly digital business and the new capabilities we have built to drop ship online orders continue to drive our business forward and should provide further opportunities for strong growth and improve margins in the future.

Each of our core markets of the UK, US and South Korea have grown well in 2021. The measures we took to reduce overstocks and protect our brand in South Korea in 2019/20 have enabled a much more robust year, with strong consumer demand and expectations of further sustainable growth in coming years.

We are mindful of ongoing Covid risks and their potential impact on sales markets, global supply chains and the associated cost inflation, particularly in container shipping. We expect further growth in 2022 and with the current uncertainty will wait to update the market with detail on the outlook for the current financial year at the time of the preliminary results in March. Looking forward we continue to navigate these uncertainties and remain confident in our ability to improve margins over the longer term and grow the business strongly in the future."

We expect to announce the Group's preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2021 on 17 March 2022.

[cwa1] 21/12/2021 13:45

Price has drifted off a touch since the, IMO, pleasing update on 11/11/21...



Mike Raybould, Chief Executive commented:



"We are delighted to see the strong levels of demand for our brands around the world. Our focused strategy is transforming our business and our growth is being driven by our ongoing development of online channels, new product launches and expanding international markets. Whilst there are undoubtedly short-term cost and margin pressures within global supply chains, we are managing any current impact on the business and we are confident in our expectation that we can grow our operating margins over the next three years."

Marginally tempted by a small top up. Currently on offer at 626p...

[cwa1] 03/11/2021 09:52

Pleasing to see it moving in the right direction at least...

[cwa1] 14/9/2021 12:17

Snippet from Singer...

An excellent set of interim results with trading comfortably back above pre pandemic levels and a strong start to H2. Significant investment remains underway to support sustained sales growth and mid-teens margins, with good progress YTD. Prudence / wider supply chain risks means we make no forecast changes, but the risk remains on the upside. Overall, Portmeirion is firmly moving in the right direction and the shares are attractively valued on a FY22 P/E of 11x and 6x EV/EBITDA with a strong balance sheet. Our analysis supports fair value of 840p.

[wad collector] 14/9/2021 08:53

That looks encouraging .

[cwa1] 14/9/2021 07:23

Interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2021



Excellent first half performance driven by success of online strategy



Portmeirion Group PLC, the designer, manufacturer and worldwide distributor of high quality homewares under the Portmeirion, Spode, Royal Worcester, Pimpernel, Wax Lyrical and Nambé brands, is pleased to announce its results for the six months ended 30 June 2021.



Portmeirion experienced excellent trading in the first half with year-on-year sales growth of 35%. Furthermore, the business has not only recovered to its pre-pandemic levels but is now exceeding them with sales up 24% compared to two years ago in H1 2019.



Headlines



Financial

•

Record Group revenue of £43.1 million, an increase of 35% over the prior year (2020: £32.0 million) and 24% over pre Covid-19 levels (2019: £34.9 million).

•

Like-for-like sales in constant currency up 7% against 2019 ("YO2Y"), ahead of pre Covid-19 levels despite ongoing disruptions, showing the strength of consumer demand and progress with our online strategy.

•

Headline profit before tax1 was £1.5 million (2020: loss before tax £2.7million, 2019: profit before tax £0.5 million).

•

Continued strong online sales growth which increased by 15% on a constant currency basis over 2020 with gross margin improvement of +900bps and 124% growth YO2Y.

•

Earnings per share up to 9.12p per share (2020: loss per share 20.71p, 2019: earnings per share 3.96p).

•

Strong balance sheet maintained and significant headroom within current borrowing facilities.

•

Dividends to be resumed for FY21.

•

Following a strong first half of the year and with an expanding global order book, the Group remains confident of achieving market expectations for FY21.



Operational

•

Good progress in developing online and digital capabilities, including further investment in online platforms and fulfilment capabilities.

•

Strong growth (57% against 2020, 4% YO2Y) in key South Korean market following successful period of management action and focus on stabilisation of stock levels. Growth expected to continue in H2.

•

Completed a number of automation investments in UK ceramic factory which will increase capacity to underpin future sales growth and margin improvements.

•

Successful expansion of home fragrance brand portfolio at Wax Lyrical; new factory line now producing hand and body care ranges, with first products shipping in the third quarter of the year.

•

New product launches including Sophie Conran for Portmeirion and Spode Creatures of Curiosity.

•

Our UK businesses both achieved Investor in People (IIP) Platinum accreditation in recognition of our commitment to leading, supporting and improving our workforce.



1 Headline profit/(loss) before tax excludes exceptional items - see note 3.



Mike Raybould, Chief Executive, commented:



"We have seen strong trading in the first half of the financial year, including a significant benefit from the focus on our online transformation strategy. Since the period end trading has continued that trend into the first two months of the second half of the financial year. Looking forward we continue to have a strong order book across our key markets. While we are cognisant of the ongoing, widely reported disruption and volatility in global supply chains we are confident the accelerated strategic investments we are making across our business will enable a strong path of growth in the next few years.



Our products are much loved by our customers around the world and this is borne out by the speed of recovery in demand we are seeing across our key markets. Our brands are well known for their high-quality design and manufacture and, in addition, we now have a huge opportunity to deepen the direct relationship we have with the end consumer as well as attracting new direct customers, as we grow the percentage of sales made through our own digital channels.



The investments we are making across all parts of our business underpin our strategic commitment to better serve our end consumer. These include building significant new in-house digital/online expertise, improvements to front and back end web systems and increasing direct to consumer order fulfilment capacity in our UK and US warehouses. This will enable us to continue to grow strongly in all online channels whilst offering an even better level of service to all our customers. Whilst still only in the early stages of our digital journey, we are very pleased in the delivery of 124% growth in our own website sales against 2019, demonstrating the potential of pursuing this strategy and showing the immense further opportunity in this area.



I am pleased a number of key operational projects that have been in progress over the last twelve months are now close to completion. In August, the first products came off our new hand and body production line at our Wax Lyrical factory in Cumbria. This opens up a new revenue category for our Wax Lyrical brand and we expect to launch hand and body products under our Portmeirion Botanic Garden range in 2022 as part of its 50th year promotional campaign. Key automation projects in our Stoke-on-Trent ceramic factory are now close to completion and will deliver improved efficiency and additional capacity that will underpin the scaling up of our UK production output and support our sales growth and operating margin ambitions.



I would like to thank all our employees for their exceptional resilience and tenacity in dealing with the daily ongoing challenges that Covid-19 presents whilst at the same time delivering on our strategy with considerable success. I am confident that the changes we are making to our business and the significant levels of new expertise we are adding will enable our brands to grow strongly in the coming years whilst we continue to develop much loved homeware products for our customers around the world."

[cwa1] 02/9/2021 07:15

Portmeirion Group PLC

Investor results presentation

Portmeirion Group PLC, the designer, manufacturer and worldwide distributor of high quality homewares under the Portmeirion, Spode, Royal Worcester, Pimpernel, Wax Lyrical and Nambé brands, is pleased to announce that Mike Raybould, Chief Executive and David Sproston, Group Finance Director, will provide a live presentation relating to Interim Results for the six months to 30 June 2021 via the Investor Meet Company platform on 16th Sep 2021 at 10:00am BST.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet Portmeirion Group PLC, via:



Investors who already follow Portmeirion Group PLC, on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited.

[mach100] 11/8/2021 21:12

Asagi yes and you are right to point it out. Hopefully the H1's will give us something to dine out on.

[cwa1] 11/8/2021 10:21

Yes, fingers crossed it continues its upward trajectory...

[asagi] 10/8/2021 19:39

"More to come here with a TS in September"

of course you mean H1's to end of June. Plus of course, hopefully, an encouraging outlook statement.

(just pointing it out for any less informed readers that weren't aware)

Asagi (long PMP)

[aublune] 10/8/2021 17:36

A very good writing of this business on stockopedia today. Long and strong

[mach100] 10/8/2021 13:05

Good move up today CWA me ole china. Maybe the company is back in vogue. I would have liked to average down sub 600p but am grateful at least the fall has reversed for now.
More to come here with a TS in September

[mach100] 09/8/2021 22:00

Yes good move CWA1. A largish sell at 580 sent the plates spinning downwards here. The share price recovered quickly to 600p ask after falling to 590p. Their statements to date suggest that a reversal of fortune in trading is very much underway though the share price trajectory suggests otherwise. But I will go with what the company says we surely can't be too far off a bottom now. I will add again.

[cwa1] 09/8/2021 16:01

Afternoon

Just taken a few at 587p on today's mini dip. For a change it was a fairly tight spread too. Now just hunker down and see what the interims bring mid September...

Fingers crossed for some decent progress

[pireric] 29/7/2021 22:05

To expand on that last point. If you run the maths back to 2010, Portmeirion has always churned out around 60% of its full year sales in the second half.

The £90m broker forecast is only 52%. If you pencil in 60%, the implied sales for the year is £107.5m, which is 20% higher than the actual forecast.

So I'll stick to my wording that you need an absolute disaster second half not to significantly exceed the broker expectation and there are no signs at all that will be the case. To the contrary, you have offline retail opening back up when much of it in the UK was closed in the first quarter. And a strong global order book.

Eric

[pireric] 20/7/2021 10:25

I reckon they have to pull out of the hat a disaster second half not to significantly exceed the FY broker forecasts. Which is nice as it should mean we can look forward to f/c upgrades as they report the rest of the fiscal year

A lot of retail will be placing their orders now or will have already done so months back. Especially this year with tight supply chains and to secure Christmas stock. Id be surprised if they dont already have good visibility into the outturn for the year being a good one.

The FY broker forecast for sales is £90m, meaning they need £47m in the second half of this year. In a covid 2020, they did over £55m in the second half of last year.

Eric

[asagi] 20/7/2021 10:17

I reckon this will make a trip back up towards £7, as the dip post trading update was shortsighted, in my opinion.

Feels like the move post trading update was in the wrong direction? The shares actually look cheap enough to buy again, so congratulations to any topper uppers.

Asagi (long PMP)

[pireric] 20/7/2021 09:43

Pleased they strongly grew online y/y in core territories over what would have been a difficult comparison number

At these levels PMP is on 16x current year earnings (too high given I think f/casts will prove well too light). But then that drops rapidly to only 10.6x 2022 and 9.1x 2023 earnings forecasts. I reckon this will make a trip back up towards £7, as the dip post trading update was shortsighted, in my opinion.

Eric

[aublune] 19/7/2021 16:39

I buy some today. portmeiron did 43 million pounds of sales in the first half but their year is alwasys centred on christmas and the market estimate is only 90m million pounds. Portmeiron is only on 12.8 stockopedia P/E estimate. I am happy to be here as a shareholder with a share price now 610 pence compared to 700 pence before