Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[djokovic1] 07/8/2019 06:21

They don't in my view. You have to plug in the numbers to see why.

[18steven] 07/8/2019 05:23

These statements released by plus contradict what you said there Djokovic1.

"The Company is pleased with the overall performance, and continues to perform in line with current expectations"

"Of note, there were signs of reduced levels of marketing across the Company's peer group which, along with continued strong and focused marketing investment by Plus500, led to an increase in the rate of new customer recruitment and a reduction in the average cost of acquisition"

I am not standing on the fence with this one. I am counting on a positive lol.

[djokovic1] 06/8/2019 19:25

ZC, I am basing my trade on a significant decline in net income margin in H1 which is not captured by consensus due to higher advertising costs and operating deleverage. I too expect the future (H2) to be better but not close to enough to catch up to consensus.

[zccax77] 06/8/2019 18:45

Be short at your peril. Investors do not value a share based on past performance but based on future performance. They will easily forgive the poor Q1 result if Q2 indicates a rosier future.

[djokovic1] 06/8/2019 17:32

Hi RD,

Yes I adjusted the Q2 numbers w.r.t the comment. To be exact, AUAC down to 1000 in Q2 and new customer adds at 28,000. Even if I flex the AUAC down to 800, the H1 Net Income only goes up to 32m in my model.

Regarding market share quite likely yes, and maybe it will continue to gain share but in the short time I am bearish re. H1 numbers.

[randdokic] 06/8/2019 17:22

Don't know why my posts appear twice. Sorry!

[djokovic1] 06/8/2019 15:20

Sorry cons. expecting FY NI at $140m

[djokovic1] 06/8/2019 15:09

While I have been a long on Plus in the past, I think the H1 earnings are going to be quite brutal (relative to cons) given the high customer acquisition costs and lower ARPU. Based on my numbers, I see NI in the first half at $27mio and at that run rate full year NI would be $54 mio, while consensus is expecting full year NI at $154m. I do expect 2H to be better than 1H due to higher volatility and Q1 being really bad but I expect the stock to react quite negatively to the H1 results. I have a short position on after today's rally.

[sbb1x] 06/8/2019 12:58

Nice rise today off 566.

[blackrolie00] 02/8/2019 10:03

Both IG and PLUS down funny how CMC is not following

[bjfanc] 01/8/2019 20:42

Trump is definitely creating volatility.

[sbb1x] 31/7/2019 16:47

Closed at 599.40 surprised closing under 600.

[paso01] 31/7/2019 12:55

Giving up Thinking Plus500 is uninvestable a shorters paradise due to the management

[bazildonbond] 30/7/2019 17:06

100 plus1 coins here today

[18steven] 30/7/2019 08:26

My guess is no one knows what it's going to do next and they don't wanna be short changed either way causing sellers to ask for more and buyers wanting to pay less.

[sbb1x] 30/7/2019 08:15

What's with the spread... 10p difference

[sbb1x] 29/7/2019 11:22

Summer holidays

[dr know] 29/7/2019 11:00

I tried to buy a CFD this morning but CMC said buys aren't allowed, only sells of existing holdings. Don't know why, but the price is not likely to go up if you can't buy the shares. Grrrrrr.

[fishking1] 29/7/2019 09:02

Low volume

[gbh2] 26/7/2019 19:24

The institutional traders have always had the upper hand, whatever PIs make or lose is purely a matter of luck but imo share dealing is better than cash in an ISA or under the bed.

[asusasus] 26/7/2019 16:04

Sbb1x I understand your frustrations. I know you from the MTRO board where the short attack yesterday has left me a couple of grand down. It seems like the shorting crew run the show and there's nothing us PI's can do to stop them. Rigged market and very, very difficult to make any money in this game. I'm close to calling it a day with stocks and keeping my hard earned.

[paso01] 26/7/2019 15:39

Shorts have increased from 4.44% to 6+%