Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[zccax77] 02/7/2019 11:58

Wonder where elcapital is with his sage advice today in terms of this going to zero. Not sure why CMCX is up today, when plus have just said they plan to have their lunch.

[asusasus] 02/7/2019 11:55

Shorts working overtime. MMs always allow their shorting mates an easy exit.

[zccax77] 02/7/2019 10:44

CMC and the other minions cannot survive in this new environment. Question is who will go bust first. Main dominant players will be IG and Plus going forward. Plus need to ramp up marketing before they make ad tech illegal. No point paying dividends just use the money on marketing. Though IG might get a free ride.

[asusasus] 02/7/2019 09:29

Haha Peel Hunt. They're in with the shorting crew. Couldn't make it up!

[gbh2] 02/7/2019 09:21

July 2019
Peel Hunt 02/07 Reiterates Reduce

Liberum Capital 02/07 Reiterates Buy

[chucko1] 02/7/2019 09:17

Yup.

Smaller pie, but bigger piece.

Find more pies.

[18steven] 02/7/2019 09:13

Chucko that's exactly how i see it. I think this company is being very innovative and showing the initiative now in order to over take the competition.

[chucko1] 02/7/2019 09:01

It may still take some time for the fog to lift, but in a brief trading statement, it is notable for what was included. A focus on the continued marketing spend and the failure of the competition to do so will probably lead to eventual consolidation. PLUS will likely look to buy the failures at low multiples of number of customers gained, and certainly far less than Average User Acquisition Costs, although they did state that this average cost had fallen anyway (for the same reason).

So it seems they would prefer to keep marketing than buy back shares. I think this has much further to play out and I wonder how much longer the minnows can survive.

[sandcrab2] 02/7/2019 08:48

Ha,ha,ha,ha

[asusasus] 02/7/2019 08:38

Shorts to close out, picked on the wrong share. PLUS is a cash cow and this trading update shows they are adapting very well to the new regulations. I expect divis paid out on 8th July will get reinvested while the share price is ridiculously low. A perfect storm brewing and I expect the share price to climb from here to a more respectable 800p before results in Aug.

[18steven] 02/7/2019 08:36

Plus500 (LON:PLUS)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by equities research analysts at Liberum Capital in a research report issued on Tuesday,

[sailing john] 02/7/2019 08:30

When trying to construct a P&L estimate from the TS the big unknown remaining in Sales and Marketing
I have assumed $70m which might be too low if they have decided to maintain spend despite reduced revenue. 1H18 was &93m and 2H18 $83m
Running my model with $80m in 1H reduces eps to 23p for 1H
I might stick with that for now as I prefer to be cautious
nai SJ

[sailing john] 02/7/2019 08:14

lemonjar - no

[lemonjar] 02/7/2019 08:08

I think this is most likely wrong and I'm sure closer watchers can set me straight, but reading this para,

revenue for the second quarter increased to approximately $94 million* (Q1 2019: $53.9 million), giving a total of approximately $148million* for the first half. The level of client spreads and overnight charges for the second quarter was approximately $93million* (Q1 2019: $82 million), giving a total of approximately $175million* for the first half.

-- could that be read as $148 + $175 = $323 for first half?

[asusasus] 02/7/2019 08:08

Time for the shorters to be squeezed. Live it when they get it totally wrong. Brilliant!

[sailing john] 02/7/2019 08:05

ramridge - nothing wrong
I have 54p in 2H giving 83p for the year
That assumes a $92.5m Rev/Quarter and importantly NO customer P&L
Also - Admin costs lower in 2H (timing of bonuses etc I assume)
nai SJ

[ramridge] 02/7/2019 07:58

sailing john - you say eps for HY 28p
Broker forecast for full FY = 122 cents (Stocko). That makes around 98p - adj eps

If you are right and you mean adj eps 28p for HY, then they have a mountain to climb.

Have I got something wrong?

[18steven] 02/7/2019 07:53

Nice one John Boy :-)

[ramridge] 02/7/2019 07:49

Not sure about revenue progress. Stocko consensus forecast for FY is 368m$.
RNS says 1st half likely to be 175m$. They need to do around 96m for each quarters Q3 and Q4 to reach forecast.
IMO possible but stretch.
No position and unlikely to take one any time soon.

[sailing john] 02/7/2019 07:44

Looks like I was wrong to be cautious on Q2 Customer P&L following crypto surge. Presumably a much lower percentage of their business with leverage at only 2:1 and relatively high transaction charges.

Customer P&L (a word they avoid in the TS) neutral for Q2 so P&L much better
My revised model numbers for H1 are
Rev $148m ($175m -$27m Cust P&L)
Sales -$70m
Admin -$24m
PBT $54m
PAT $32m
eps 28p
div 17p (60% PAT)
dyor imo etc.
GL - SJ

[randdokic] 02/7/2019 07:36

on the share movement: I personally view the update as positive but wtfdik? Expect a drop. This share is in the hands of the shorters.

@sailing.john: any idea how much the $148 million converts to PAT and PE ratio? Thanks!

[randdokic] 02/7/2019 07:31

On the next dividend: At the moment roughly 114 million share capital. If we assume 6 p (thanks to Sailing John and his recent calculations!) that's only approx. 7 million pounds for revenues of $148 million. I think PAT will be higher and therefore the dividend too.

[18steven] 02/7/2019 07:29

How do we see the share price going today ?... Come on let's have some fun guessing ?

I'd like to say mid 600's is that too optimistic ?

[18steven] 02/7/2019 07:28

2 July 2019

Plus500 Ltd

('Plus500', the 'Company')

Half Year Trading Update

Plus500, a leading online service provider for trading CFDs internationally,today issues the following trading update at the end of the second quarter of its 2019 financial year.
The Company is pleased with the overall performance, and continues to perform in line with current expectations.

Following a first quarter which was impacted by low levels of volatility in financial markets, revenue for the second quarter increased to approximately $94 million* (Q1 2019: $53.9 million), giving a total of approximately $148million* for the first half. The level of client spreads and overnight charges for the second quarter was approximately $93million* (Q1 2019: $82 million), giving a total of approximately $175million* for the first half.

During the first half, around 48% ofrevenue was generated outside the EEA, whilst approximately 23% of revenue was generated by Elective Professional Clients within the EEA.

Of note, there were signs of reduced levels of marketing across the Company's peer group which, along with continued strong and focused marketing investment by Plus500, led to an increase in the rate of new customer recruitment and a reduction in the average cost of acquisition.

Further details of the Company's operational and financial performance will be provided in its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2019, to be issued in August 2019.

[randdokic] 02/7/2019 07:22

Concerning profitability: "The Company is pleased with the overall performance, and continues to perform in line with current expectations."
--> I do not expect a loss in Q1 and Q2 otherwise the company must give a warning if they already know.