Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[rifleshot3] 01/2/2019 13:31

Just a quick direction question for you then...if the short is based on a rumor...why would any of them ever reduce, even by a dollar? They haven't reduced much yet, I know, but why come down at all if they know something that sinks the business?

I'd be grateful if you could explain that one.

[elcapital2018] 01/2/2019 13:28

dont mean to be rude, but if you were aware of the rumour you would realise why theyre all short, and your post is pointless

[rifleshot3] 01/2/2019 13:25

Ok good man. Well done.

[elcapital2018] 01/2/2019 13:18

rifle...i read the first paragraph...then realised you dont have a clue what is actually happening

[rifleshot3] 01/2/2019 13:09

El Capital a stab at a sensible answer. In my view (and in the view of others who understand this far better than I) the shorts don't understand that Plus500 is the only firm still able grow EEA revenues - because it is the only firm that has the capacity to increase the quality of its country mix upwards in the EEA.

What I write about in my posts above around volatility is the superficial bit, but crucial, because it doesn't give the shorts a trough quarter or two to escape their mistake, and buys time for this more complex nuance to play out. The shorts have not only got it wrong, they've also got unlucky with volatility. They couldn't be in a worse position.

Just for the record, most of the brokers in the market don't understand it either. Peel Hunt today have assumed a disproportionate amount of 2018 out-performance is down to Non-European Revenue increase. They still don't get that the change in country mix is within the EEA, not outside it. Ian White at Autonomous Research has made the same mistake.

Given their professional paid analysts, their blunderings beggar belief. Take Ian White again. He guessed $798m of Revenues in August. Then he guessed $623m in October. And now he’s guessing (after the event) at $722m. A monkey could do better. Oh, and he also managed to under-cook his guess at Q3 by $17m. If you annualise that, it is a $68m miss. Clueless.

[elcapital2018] 01/2/2019 12:38

are you worried about the 12.5% short, and the fact im always right? you should be

[sailing john] 01/2/2019 12:36

Re divi - usually goes XD just a couple of weeks after results. If this includes a special again shorts will perhaps reconsider their positions.
We shall see over the coming weeks - though as the price increases shorting of course becomes more attractive.

Unless you are wrong!
GL - SJ

[sailing john] 01/2/2019 12:31

Good to see some unfiltered posts again!!!!

Good progress over the past few weeks mainly due to volatility and the positive YE Trading Statement

The key differentiator between PLUS CMCX, IGG and others is the negative balance protection that PLUS uniquely offers EPCs as well as Retail Customers.
Why bet/risk the farm when you can trade PLUS!!!

And of course retail customers can still gain leverage by trading through an Australian Regulated Account

Looking forward to seeing the detail in a couple of weeks

GL - SJ
Shame this thread has been trashed!

[rifleshot3] 01/2/2019 12:30

*When I say: "Even more important; you don't go back or re-trace from this improved position. The quality and intrinsic value of the business is enhanced, permanently..."

Consider also this:

From RNS 23 October 2018:

“Plus500 continues to focus on the acquisition of high lifetime value customers in core jurisdictions. Such customers tend to deliver higher ARPU and lifetime value, with lower churn, even when markets are less volatile. While this has been the Company's consistent goal, the strength of the Plus500 brand has increasingly enabled it to win these and other customers while achieving its targeted return on investment (ROI). Revenues from Active Customers acquired in prior periods continue to grow year on year. This is representative of the success of the Company's retention initiatives, and its success in acquiring long term high value Active Customers from the EEA and other jurisdictions.”;

Every massive flush of volatility only allows Plus to enhance the quality of their customer base (the most valuable, once signed up to Plus's offering, self-select themselves) and insulates them from external market conditions and less volatile times.

[rifleshot3] 01/2/2019 12:16

A few points

-Easy to say in hindsight and there are many ways to assess what is really going on in this market but there was a big clue way back on October 23rd last year
-Unlike CMC and IG who had to warn, Plus announced on that date that they were guiding up again for Full Year and that they’d ground out $100m of Revenues for Q3 2018, a result that was equally as impressive as the $150m+ they went on to make in Q4
-I say as much because they achieved that $100m not only into the teeth of ESMA Leverage Restrictions (which were always going to be most damaging immediately post implementation) but also into the teeth of absolutely terrible market conditions with all their key tradeable indices range-bound
-What is so impressive is that when things are bad, the perception of poor performance is amplified by the underlying KPI’s (people don’t just trade less, they sign up less, they change status (Retail to Professional) less etc. And yet Plus still held their own
-But now consider this: The 150+ in Q4 that will be announced on February 12 is also more impressive than it looks, because Q4 started with all the indifferent KPI’s as mentioned above. Plus got a massive spike in Volatility early in October yes, but, as of the first day of that month the business had no internal momentum
-And now consider this. Volatility was still what got them a great result in Q4, but when these businesses start to trend up performance wise it is a bit like a hurricane. As trading activity increases you get a surge in top and bottom line, but you also get big spikes in New Customers, Re-Activated Customers and EPC Transition. ARPU increases and AUAC comes down
-This means the business will have hit the ground running very hard this quarter. We’ve had yet another month with the VIX averaging around 19, and unlike the transition from Q3-Q4 2018, the business has transitioned from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019, with all the momentum in the world
-Even more important; you don't go back or re-trace from this improved position. The quality and intrinsic value of the business is enhanced, permanently

Shorts may close on seeing February 12 results and what the underlying KPI’s suggest to them (many of the KPI’s look forward, so actually even more important than the excellent FY2018 headline $ numbers we’ll get on that date). Or, they may hang on grimly to see what Plus delivers in Q1. Either way, for the above reasons and many others, they will burn.

(In hell).

[malcolmmm] 01/2/2019 12:09

Nice and hopefully a special divi again

[chucko1] 01/2/2019 11:45

So, doomonger, I am interested in your explanation for why you believe the buyback has pushed the price up (unnaturally), when there have been no buybacks of note with the share price above 1500p.

The impression you leave me with is one of exceptional ignorance on anything to do with this share - also with any other share, for that matter.

[metis20] 01/2/2019 10:59

US$10m set aside for the current buy back round.

Of that £3.2m has been used excluding costs.

Last buyback RNS was on 23rd Jan.

The highest wav was 1488p - looks as if current share price floor target is 1500p.

[the don of dons] 01/2/2019 10:47

Those shorts must really be burning.What a lovely smell.Squeal pigs. Squeal.

[mister md] 01/2/2019 10:44

nicely in profit here

Long-term hold

[rvsy38] 01/2/2019 10:39

Thanks tomleafs and BGW

[bgw1970] 01/2/2019 10:27

$7m traded so far today. Total buyback programme $10m, of which much done.

Dividend policy is: hxxps://www.plus500.co.uk/Investors/Dividends

[doomongor] 01/2/2019 10:21

Nobody is closing shorts *facepalm*, it's just the buyback pushing the share price up!! So sad this company can't keep the share price up naturally so it must resort to trickery.

[rvsy38] 01/2/2019 10:21

BGW Thanks also from me for the broker forecasts.

I remember reading somewhere a statement from the company on what percentage of their earnings they intend to pay out as dividend - do you recall that figure ?

[gettingrichslow] 01/2/2019 10:14

Thanks BGW, that's helpful to see them all together.

[bgw1970] 01/2/2019 10:09

Liberum, Autonomous, Canaccord, Berenberg and Peel Hunt revenues are 711, 722, 650 (not updated since 8 Oct), 718 and 719. EBIT around $500m, so about 335c/ 259p a share.

[andrewbaker] 01/2/2019 10:08

A lot of shorters closing out is doing well for the price in the short term, and longer term, as I said before, PLUS500 is a well run outfit, catering to addicts who will be loyal customers, and making money for Governments - via taxes - who will not want to be overly restrictive on what the business may do such that they still get their cut. So ... in summary, I'm enjoying holding, for both the (covered) dividends, and the future capital growth.

[podgyted] 01/2/2019 09:43

I've filtered so many on this board there's hardly anything to read.

Thanks for the update BGW1970