Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[costax1654x] 14/8/2018 08:08

1400 target for lots of people

[technovator] 14/8/2018 08:07

huge sellers, very difficult to get out.

[sogoesit] 14/8/2018 08:01

Let's see if we get whacked to 1600p.
Extraordinary!

[nurdin] 14/8/2018 07:58

Strip out the cash and the stock is trading at 6-7x Berenbergs 2018 earnings forecasts.Looks to me all the bad news is well in the price now

[jplus] 14/8/2018 07:29

23rd August

[plasybryn] 14/8/2018 07:26

Did we get an ex dividend date or an indication of when it will be?

[f15jcm] 13/8/2018 22:53

Hang on a minute... EPS in H1 was $2.30, roughly 177p. If FY Dec-18 guidance is 192p, surely PLUS is trading massively ahead of expectations as it's almost made its forecast profit for the whole year at the half way point?

[aakash30] 13/8/2018 22:39

No the profit doesnt reduce by a factor of 10. It just takes more time to realize that profit but over time the net amount of money made should be roughly the same. Clients are going to lose their money but will take more time to lose it. May give you more sticky clients as a result. Berenberg/Liberum EPS is ~£2.2/share for 2018

I think today's drop was due to couple of reasons:

a) Extremely low guidance for H2 may have spooked the market. This will be beaten with ease. H2 guidance to sell-side was 75mio of EBITDA in H2. This is extremely conservative and will easily be beaten. For comparison:They did 349 mio in H1 and roughly 50-75mio per Quarter from Q4 2016 to Q3 2017. And now they are guiding 37.5mio per quarter, for rest of 2018. I don't know why this extra conservative guidance but it just seems wrong.

b) Low number of new customers for Q2 at 21k. I think this is in part due to them focusing on high value, more sticky (potentially professional) clients (they had the highest ARPU of all quarters in their history which is testament to that). They way I got comfortable with this is by modelling only 20k new customer growth per quarter in the future with historical churn. This obviously means their active customer base drops sharply. I didnt bump up ARPU even though one would expect it would go up if they were targeting a smaller set of high value clients. I still got a FV of £16 for the stock.

Overall, I still think great risk reward (-5% bear), +40% base, or FV is triple your money if you are James Hanbury from Odey hah.

Will obviously be volatile, always has been, but index addition should provide good support. My few cents..

[nod] 13/8/2018 22:31

f15jcm, another comparison would be Playtech which has been a leader and innovator in lightly regulated and unregulated gambling markets. As such, PTEC is very volatile whenever there are changes in regulations or even threats of changes. PTEC is going through one of those moments now. However, by growing business in regulated and soon to be regulated markets, its exposure reduces over the long term. PTEC is PLUS500's largest shareholder with 9.99% Both operate in online gambling sectors and there will be changing regulations even in highly-regulated markets, as we are seeing today. These changes create uncertainty and require agility and planning by the companies."Being there" is a risk but the rewards are high because other companies choose not to be there. To win you have to "Dare to be There".

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 22:14

Rules have been known. Effect of those rules are unknown. Profit from naive traders reduced by a factor of 10. 95% of traders are naive traders. Work that out for company profits.....

[hatfullofsky] 13/8/2018 22:09

ESMA rules have been known for 6 months so should have been priced in. IG downgraded their outlook PLUS decided to wait and see. This will bounce, just off what level 1600 showing some support.

[quant_investor] 13/8/2018 22:03

Hi Nurdin I’m seeing 191.78p for this year and 196.52p for next from Digital Look.

Must be very accurate forecasts if they need to use two decimal places!

[f15jcm] 13/8/2018 21:23

Looking at other high growth stocks, Games Workshop is a good example of a company that had a good run but then delivered a tempered outlook with its last lot of results. It took a bit of a pasting on results day but it's gone on to hit all time highs since. Hope we can expect to see the same here. Going off today's drop, you'd think there'd been a profit warning.

[sb888] 13/8/2018 20:46

Always said there is something not right here.

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 20:42

It's a discount to peers due to regulation and domicile I think. It doesn't quite have the status and acceptance as IG with the City. I agree though with your point.

My point is though that it's not market volatility that drives these companies but the volatility of the markets in which they make the most profit. Huge restrictions on the Dow, forex and crypto's and the removed of credit terms is the problem. With further regulation likely.

It's about time though. Read some of the stories with the poor sods who've lost everything..... You can't keep plugging a company that uses the system to make money.

[f15jcm] 13/8/2018 20:31

Still doesn't explain why it's at such a discount to peers. Business outside of Europe and ESMA is the key to growth.

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 20:28

Still down 300 ... market didn't like something.

Margin restrictions are huge on the big ticket spreads. I think that's the problem. Take the Dow ... £1000 pounds could buy you exposure to £20 a point. Now that's down to 0.5 a point. Professional traders get some exemption, but the professionals don't lose as much.

Still a cash generative business though. Just been reduced by a significant amount.

I think further regulation is likely.

The rise from 300 was the time to buy.

[f15jcm] 13/8/2018 20:17

The results said they were trading in line so no reason they would. It's a growing company with no debt, loads of cash, paying a massive dividend, priced on only 9 times forward earnings that benefits from the rest of the market going down. If that's not a strong buy, I don't know what is!

[nurdin] 13/8/2018 20:10

Thanks.No downgrades so far that I can see

[nurdin] 13/8/2018 19:57

If I am not mistaken,brokers are forecasting eps of 192p for 2018.Can anyone confirm please?

[costax1654x] 13/8/2018 19:56

I have a feeling that we might see 1400!

[andrewbaker] 13/8/2018 19:08

Crypto currencies, new markets, good numbers ...: maybe legislation will tighten up on what Plus may do, but that won't hurt so much, and Plus have a good handle on it too. I paid £1 over the low today, because I didn't want to miss the opportunity to buy the dip; and I look on that £1 as good insurance. This one has fallen a lot in one day in the past, a few times, and always come back. My money is - literally - on that happening again.

[poolefox] 13/8/2018 18:49

In reality Volatility is normal, 2017 was abnormal.If we are nearing the end of the investment cycle,QE being withdrawn,Trump,heightened political turmoil,rise of populism,goldilocks is close to an end especially if the US continue on the tightening path.US midterm elections normally lead to a fall during and a rise afterwards.Perfect storm for Plus500,its all about adapting technology to change and this is where Plus500 have the advantage