Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[metis20] 13/8/2018 07:13

· Plus500 is the No.1 CFD broker in the UK, Germany and Spain by number of clients relationship and Australia by client rating6 reflecting the Group's strong growth in its core markets

· Record first half results benefitted from:

o Exceptional first quarter combined with a good second quarter performance

o Active Customers7 - significant increase of 121% to a record level of 248,564 (H1 2017: 112,317)

o New Customers8 - growth of 75% to 94,148 (H1 2017: 53,881)

o ARPU - increased 12% to $1,873 (H1 2017: $1,678)

o AUAC - decreased 19% to $677 (H1 2017: $836)



Earnings per share up from $0.79 to $2.30, an increase of 191% over H1 2017



· Interim dividend - significant increase in shareholders returns reflecting the outstanding first half performance; a total interim payout of $157.0 million (H1 2017: $27.2 million) or $1.3786 per share (H1 2017: $0.2388) declared in relation to the period

[elway1] 12/8/2018 19:28

That statement is deliberately ambiguous. What they are saying there is that Full Year Earnings will be better then expected but self-evidently frontloaded (in first instance) by spectacular 1H Results.

What will really move the dial is 2H results that exceed what are in their own 2H forecasts. Even if 2H actual is half the number of 1H, if that 2H actual exceeds 2H forecast, share price will go up, not down, even if the 2H number is much less then first as a total. My strong suspicion: that is what will happen and that is what will lead to the big re-rating and define this share in the medium term. They may even hint that way tomorrow in statement.

[poolefox] 12/8/2018 19:28

Results will be stunning ,share price should respond ESMA surely factored in.Volatility here to stay with Turkey,Bitcoin,Trump and US mid term elections.The perfect storm the interesting thing will be forward guidance,updates on Singapore,South Africa and potential new licences

[nurdin] 12/8/2018 18:49

Dont forget this statement from the recent trading update:

"Plus500, a leading online service provider for trading CFDs internationally is pleased to announce that due to a strong Q2, the Board has again materially increased its expectations for the Group's financial performance for the year ending 31 December 2018."

[s_a_b] 12/8/2018 18:11

All sounds very sensible, thanks for posting. At the current share price the market is pricing in a major drop off in future performance and / or very high risk around the business so makes sense that the share price could re-rate if the outlook for H2 is good despite regulatory changes. Fingers crossed for tomorrow!

[rifleshot3] 12/8/2018 11:56

Correct me if I’m wrong but something that hasn’t been discussed perhaps as much as it should?

-Assuming continuing significant out performance of 1H forecasts announced tomorrow
-Market will look for hints in relation to 2H

More particularly:
• I assume forecasts for Q3 and Q4 were sensitised long ago to reflect advent of ESMA
• Plus has good track record of being prudent
• So these forecasts (to repeat) will have fully allowed for significant drop off in Revenue in 2H even if the business is quietly confident of mitigating effect of ESMA better than the competition on a like for like basis

So is that not the key metric going forward? 2H Revenue and Earnings (wherever they come out) will be considered by the market to be higher quality. So if the business continues to outperform its own budget in 2H then not only will Y/E look absolutely amazing, but blended quality of earnings will also go to value in a (very) good way?

So, in summary, how the business performs post ESMA in 2H against its own projections, is key? Does anyone have any visibility on this point?

SP of 30-40 quid looks realistic to me if 2H is clean and they demonstrate outperformance of own forecasts against ESMA backdrop.

Barrier to even bigger is perhaps: Next year; Market saying, “prove it again” and/or more Reg banana skins, curve balls. Worst case scenario if they continue to produce barnstorming results regulator might decide they still haven’t done enough: “you remain too profitable” and find another way to limit the entire industry?

[davebdavid] 10/8/2018 17:20

Still over 20 which is a fantatsic end to the week. Will be an interesting day on Monday but I am confident of new highs.

[interceptor2] 10/8/2018 16:33

Market closed so no chance to de-risking before results now.

Looking forward to results on Monday, fingers crossed they are as impressive as we are all expecting.......

[villarich] 10/8/2018 16:27

Possibly. Positions being de- risked should the results not be what the market is expecting. Let's see what Monday brings.

[nurdin] 10/8/2018 16:08

I sense some nervousness ahead of Mondays results....

[sogoesit] 09/8/2018 15:21

Thanks chucko; hope it's useful in any case.
May indicate there is an opportunity for switching too.

[chucko1] 09/8/2018 14:49

Sogoesit, it may only be anecdotal, but probably representative and conformational, regardless of your bias.

The City Index experience on iPhone or tablet is ghastly, at least from a navigational point of view. Otherwise a good range of markets but I am not a big user - not keen on leverage. I’m just keen on others being keen!

[alan00] 09/8/2018 14:42

Where can this report be accessed? Or has someone reported it elsewhere?Thanks.

[poolefox] 09/8/2018 12:40

In addition also against the backdrop of a strengthening euro against sterling which will enhance the results

[poolefox] 09/8/2018 12:26

Totally agree look at all the insurance company legacy products that have been hoovered up by Phoenix from Standard Life,AXA etc because the insurance companies couldn't cope with legacy systems and changing legislation.The IT infrastructure and its flexibility is absolutely key

[planelondon] 09/8/2018 12:06

I couldn't agree with you more Chuck01.

I have always viewed it as follows:

IG Group is City CFD brokerage with an IT Department. Plus500 is an IT company with a CFD Department.

[chucko1] 09/8/2018 11:57

IG Group deserve to “lose the crown”. Instead of properly recognising the competitor, it has been snide and bickered about it (the competitor) - recall the comments publicly made by IGG a year or so back when the whole European regulatory thing blew up. Nothing wrong about that in itself, except it shows that it was insufficiently fleet of foot to deal with the changing marketplace, something which PLUS appear to have managed very well.

I also suspect they are weighed down with legacy systems and processes which would make it expensive to refocus quickly. Those who doubt PLUS’s high profitability (or how it arises absent of some form of sleight of hand), should ponder how poor systems lead to poor, and hence expensive, risk management. So this allows PLUS to work on tighter bid/offers etc. The rest then becomes obvious.

[planelondon] 09/8/2018 11:38

Thanks Dennislevine.

Monday results news flow is going to be incredible.

Even the long-term Plus500 skeptics will have to take note.

In the CFD world, this is equivalent of Pepsi overtaking Coca-Cola to become the world's No. 1

It will be a difficult crown for IG Group to lose after 44 years.

[dennislevine] 09/8/2018 11:14

Another piece of significant market data from Investment Trends - this from the "2018 UK Leverage Trading Report"

Plus500 is now the "UK's No. 1 CFD Provider*"

* By total number of relationships with UK CFD traders


To add to recent post that Plus500 is now the market leader in both Germany and Spain

[sogoesit] 09/8/2018 10:00

Stake-building here; some more today.

[chucko1] 08/8/2018 21:18

Planelondon, given the recent improving performance of just these funds, that is a perfectly reasonable scenario. After all, one would have expected some sales by now indicated via TR-1.

However, it is the recent rapid rise which would have had to require commensurate inflows to prevent sales, and that is less likely. But still quite possible. Odey’s key fund (in his name) will no longer be attracting negative press (up double digit percentage this year) so that may act as a boost for the others which have been doing well, anyway.

[planelondon] 08/8/2018 16:39

Chucko1, there is another possible explanation. The Odey funds could have received significant net inflows over the period. This would have the effect of diluting the Plus500 holding and make housekeeping redemptions unnecessary.

[chucko1] 08/8/2018 16:33

Ultimate1, I largely share your views. What I would add, however, is that even if Hanbury is thinking in terms of 7000p, I see him as a risk manager who would reduce his exposure prior to that (as a % holding in his funds). That would be a lovely problem to have!

[chucko1] 08/8/2018 16:27

For fear of repetition, Odey do not appear to have sold for some time. They must have gone quite a way beyond the 10% limit in two of Hanbury’s funds. This is because PLUS has risen by around 25% whilst the other assets in the funds are probably up around only 5% - following the time that the funds already had a 10.5% holding with a 10% limit!

Now, they can sell to other Odey funds, but that’s the only other out.