Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 13/8/2018 17:21

With Trump around there will always be volatility. Crypto bubble looking like it's over.

I agree with more regulation but then they will create more products, IG already have one in development, it takes Regulators 2 years to catch up. Traders will always want to trade the latest and greatest.

As the market contracts so will the providers, with only the strong surviving. We get a bigger piece of a smaller pie. The key question being how big the pie will be

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 16:59

Didn't say it was the beginning of the end. Just that easy profits might reduce.

Remember where the big profits come from. Highly volatile markets, highly margined clients. That's no longer possible.

I would expect more regulation.

So I still think Plus will make a turn but not like it has. Neither will IG.

Of course, I could be wrong. We'll see.

[slowbutsure1] 13/8/2018 16:58

I wish the short sellers would chill out!

[hatfullofsky] 13/8/2018 16:45

rochdae - It's a little early for that call.

Current trading in the third quarter is in line with market expectations, the company said

We're half way through the quarter, with ESMA coming into effect in August. Impact would have been immediate and they have a legal obligation to report any significant changes to trading.

It's certainly not without risk but far too early to call the beginning of the end

[noujay] 13/8/2018 16:40

I'd better sell and run for the Hills then!

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 16:38

Not it's all over. Just returning to a normal company profile.

I'm afraid you can't keep screwing the retail customer and expect the industry not to react.

Crypto currency margins have gone through the roof. You can no-longer give credit for trading ....

It's been a great run I admit. Maybe got some legs going forward. But the idea that you can take on client with addictions and they give them impossible odds isn't a great business model going forward.

Short this company and IG. It will be a delayed reaction to the meltdown 2 years ago imo.....

[noujay] 13/8/2018 16:32

This one has plenty more to come imo - it's nimble with the tech and has the cash to drive into new markets. Not buying the it's all over story!

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 16:29

Big dividend, big cash pile, low pe ... profits severely curtained going forward. More regulation. Would expect a retrace and then see what happens...

[rimau1] 13/8/2018 16:26

Buy the dips! Big dividend, big cash pile, low pe, under promiser/over deliverer and a great hedge for volatile markets. Name another share with that profile. Appreciate the drop in new clients QonQ but goes with the sector. Surprised that I could add at 1680 so I did. Better hedge than gold.

[noujay] 13/8/2018 16:19

On that basis you can start to see why Odey are so bullish - the Australia growth must be very encouraging for them. Notes on acquisitions too which will be easier to finance with a main market listing

[rochdae] 13/8/2018 16:19

The problem with the sector is that regulation is kicking in. Profits in this industry come from losing trades. 95% of people who trade the Dow, forex, currencies lose and lose big time. Most are novices who don't understand volatility or risk. They are addicted gamblers. The regulators have had enough and now margins are 1000% more than they were. So you could open a Dow bet with £200 now you need £30,000 for the same exposure. Not many people have £30,000 for that bet.

I'm afraid the business model is screwed. It's called paternalism.

IG and Plus have made their money on screwing the ignorant or the ill-informed. At least IG have tried to diversify into other types of offering.

Anyway, the market today smells the future.

Maybe plus can adapt. But the big fear here is more regulation based on protection of the client.

I would expect a decline from here as the industry is controlled.

[cfro] 13/8/2018 16:13

Yes i think you are dead right Noujay. Look at Australia where the active customer numbers were up seven fold. It is the potential growth in Austral-Asia that is where the new customers will come from.

[hatfullofsky] 13/8/2018 16:11

Added at 1676

[noujay] 13/8/2018 16:08

There is some allusion in the results to further expansion through additional licenses and acquisition which I found very encouraging - as the Far East opens up surely that's the opportunity for further meaningful growth?

[hatfullofsky] 13/8/2018 16:08

Total over-reaction but sadly what we have come to expect.
If we only get 25% of the profit / growth from H1 (using the current EPS and expected EPS) we add another £66M PBT so FY PBT £332M x 6 at the current MCAP

Crazy prices - "Be greedy when others are fearful.."

[aakash30] 13/8/2018 16:06

On a similar line of thought CFRO, a little concerning for me is the new customers in Q2 (20k), if you project that rate of new customer addition to continue with a high churn rate then you have a declining active customer base. Still with relatively modest assumptions I have a FV on this of £24.

[nurdin] 13/8/2018 16:04

Stuff of heart attacks lol

Has there been any negative comment in any reports?

[jimbo123elf] 13/8/2018 16:02

Sell IG and buy PLUS! Plus offer tighter spreads on most of their CFDs anyway, which is definitely going to be a priority for higher value professional clients.

[noujay] 13/8/2018 16:01

All over the place this one today - could easily end up with 4% of the entire issued share capital traded today

[cfro] 13/8/2018 15:37

Some further ramblings on PLUS: The Active customer numbers are the important numbers imv. It might be that investors today are looking at the drop-off in active users from Q1 to Q2 which was 148k down to 103k however due to a quieter period in the crypto markets in the second quarter it is not surprising. Worth pointing out that these customers can quickly return in any given quarter going forward. But the main point is that despite the drop-off active customer numbers were still significantly higher both from H1 2017 where growth in numbers was 121% and Q2 18 compared with Q2 17 where growth was 28%.

[oregano] 13/8/2018 14:08

founders last sold 1/3rd of their holdings at £11. Their lock ups come off shortly.

Playtech sold their stake in GVC not long back. bound to be looking here also. I would sell into the index inclusions if i were them.

[5chipper] 13/8/2018 14:06

Interim divi alone is worth 7% and that is still well covered by fcf

[noujay] 13/8/2018 13:49

Was here from c.1100-1600 then sold out a few months back. Watching and thought the opportunity to buy at this sort of price had passed so pleased to be back in today at 17.57 and 17.75Doesn't seem too much wrong with this to me was surprised to see such a hit today

[slowbutsure1] 13/8/2018 13:34

Buy the fear. I would be surprised if PLUS is not making new highs in the short term.

[villarich] 13/8/2018 13:33

Picked up some more at 17.57. Crazy drop today