Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[cg8riverside] 14/10/2017 12:15

Cracking valuable analysis PL, love it!

[interceptor2] 13/10/2017 19:14

That really is valuable info PL re the high volatility days with Crypto.

Much appreciated...

[fenners66] 13/10/2017 18:25

Nice work PL.
Why can't all boards have contributors like that?

[cfro] 13/10/2017 18:04

Excellent analysis PL, thanks.

[sailing john] 13/10/2017 17:55

Cracking analysis as always PL and I can't dispute anything you say. Just can't bring myself to believe that $175m Rev achievable in Q3
The good news though is that even with my cautious $115m we are still only on a PE of 7.4 and a combined buyback and divi yield of 8%-13.5%.
Hopefully nearer your number than mine but either way significantly undervalued
Still hoping for a main listing and FTSE 250 entry announcement at FY - I can dream! (and they did announce 3 years back it was being considered - but I think it went on the back burner as they didn't have sufficient accounting history - in years)
GL - SJ

PS - PL - Revenue is one of my few inputs to my model and is simply based on historic performance and anything put out in terms of RNS statements, market news, IG results etc. - What my model does then do is calculate all the other numbers down to PAT. Also show various KPIs etc graphically which is always useful)

[planelondon] 13/10/2017 17:18

SJ, i think your model is producing outcomes way too low, although I appreciate you keep it conservative.

We know that from the 02/06 RNS and the interim accounts of 30/06 that PLUS added USD 32.5m of net profit for the month of June. Corresponding revenue would be circa USD 58m.

The trading update of 27/09 states that during Q3 “that the business continues to trade strongly”. This is good news and was expected by most of us. However, what we can’t ascertain from the update is whether Q3 trading is going be similar to 1x Q2+ or a vastly improved 3x M6.

The daily P&L chart on page 21 of the H1-2017-Plus500 Presentation indicates that on the four best performing days in Q2 the company had earnings of USD 7m, 5m, 4m and 5m respectively. These four days correspond directly to the four days bitcoin had it largest inter day falls over the period. The corresponding dates and amounts are 25/05 (-23%), 06/06 (-5%), 11/06 (-24%) and 23/06 (-14%).

www.plus500.com/media/Investors/Reports/Plus500_Investor_Presentation_1H2017.pdf

During Q3 by my records, bitcoin encountered eleven similar occasions of high volatility and significant price falls to those four days in Q2 that led to USD 21m of earnings. These days were 09/07 (-26%), 22/07 (-14%), 31/07 (-5%), 14/08 (-9%), 17/08 (-5%), 20/08 (-5%) 29/08 (-3%), 02/09 (-15%), 08/09 (-10%), 12/09 (-12%), and 14/09 (-19%). No surprise, these days also correlate to the days with the highest trading volumes on the bitcoin exchanges. www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin

On this basis, I think M6 has at a minimum been maintained throughout Q3, and we are certainly looking at 3x M6 and not 1x Q2+ for Q3. Two further reasons to support this are:

Interest in crypto currencies on google trends was significantly above Q2 levels in Q3 and at its peak in early September. This is likely to have driven new crypto customer acquisitions at a faster rate, lower cost and higher number than in Q2/M6.



Since the beginning of August PLUS crypto currencies youtube clip has had over 3.7m views. That’s something that wasn’t there in Q2. So how many additional customers over Q2/M6 numbers has it delivered to PLUS?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=if5sIW7Xqjo&index=10&list=PLgcYftMg-H33WCRhQQqmwCu_FFgP-tUvH

[cfro] 13/10/2017 08:35

Yes SJ, good to see the continuation upwards again this morning.

Can't wait for the Q3 results end of month. Im pretty excitable that they will surprise considerably to the upside.

[sailing john] 13/10/2017 08:31

Has Mr M found this thread at last!
Or just a bit of Crypto excitement?
Hoping for 1000p+ post Q3 (if not before!)
My model PE still just 7.4 at 965p and 1.32fx
My Q3 cautious rev assumption $115m vs $111m in Q2
If that doesn't sound cautious see M6 cash generation and by inference PAT!
Still enjoying the ride on my largest position!
GL - SJ

[interceptor2] 12/10/2017 17:26

A lovely breakout to an all time highs today.

The reassuring thing about holding PLUS is that after the very strong interim results in August, 2 week ago they released an unscheduled trading update that said profits to full year will be ahead of market expectations.

I know it is unwise to anticipate future announcements with certainty, but after the recent RNS announcements it is highly likely that the the next trading update on 31st October will be rather bullish.

PLUS are certainly benefiting from Cryptos and we know that the share buyback program will start again at some point.

[poolefox] 12/10/2017 15:08

Plus just sent email promoting the Bitcoin surge over 7% today

[fenners66] 12/10/2017 15:08

What just gave this another boost?

[sailing john] 12/10/2017 11:20

Cryptos hitting the headlines again with Bitcoin through $5000
Good for business and free advertising!
We appear to be in breakout territory - presumably trading bots are programmed to respond to such moves!
Might reach my Q3 target of £10 ahead of schedule!
GL - SJ

[poolefox] 12/10/2017 09:49

Similar regulation in Japan initially resulted in share price falls then those with the most flexible platforms like plus took off

[xajorkith] 12/10/2017 09:26

Profits more important than prophets to me.

Not sure I'd risk a bear raid on a company with a forward PE under 9 that recently said "revenue & profits would be ahead of expectations".

Regulation always a threat in this industry but they seem to have addressed many of the concerns ahead of next year's report from the FCA.

As Paul Scott noted on the link, they've been totally wrong about IQE.

[basem1] 12/10/2017 08:31

Good luck with that.....the chart says long and strong

[samdb] 12/10/2017 08:22

Speculation on Twitter that ShareProphets are about to do a bear raid on this.https://twitter.com/mrcontrarian/status/918141340340375553

[sailing john] 11/10/2017 15:33

Not a tip by the look of it just volume being shifted at 920 in 3 large trades
Is this the restart of the buyback prog?
SJ

[sailing john] 11/10/2017 14:47

b1 we just did - do you have a ouiji board!
Tipped somewhere? US probably given timing!

[basem1] 11/10/2017 14:00

Be nice to breakout today......and run towards £10

[arc en ciel] 04/10/2017 17:08

Is today's RNS regarding Morgan Stanley's shareholding significant?

Looks like they have sold around 800,000 shares in the last month or so and cut their holding below 6%.

5 September holding 7,613,590, today 6,808,470.

I realise the instis have lots of varied reasons for their (often unfathomable) dealings but in a rational world they shouldn't cut their holding when they know or think good news is on its way....

[sailing john] 02/10/2017 08:26

GTX (and others) reporting a very strong September for fx business.

[poolefox] 01/10/2017 21:55

One of the motley fool guys has picked IG as his top tip for October,this augurs well for Plus a much greater bargain.Cant wait for 31/10!

[nurdin] 29/9/2017 19:54

Strip out the cash, as at end of last year, and the stock is trading at just 5x 2017 forecast earnings..Absurdly cheap.Perhaps the real unknown is the regulatory environment starting early next year...

[sailing john] 29/9/2017 13:38

Relatively low volume today (just 82k at 1.30pm) which prompted me to recalc the buyback daily volume to achieve their circa $30m return by 1st Feb 2018 ($/£ 1.34 and £9/share)
Circa 40K/day! that will help!
So why the step change reduction in volume so far today? Seller out? so price moves up and buyers reduce? Or quarter end or hidden sell order being filled at 895ish - or just publunch day!?
EDIT after close - late surge in volume and through 900 - liquid lunch!

[cfro] 29/9/2017 11:10

Absoloutely right stuffee and hence forth we can deduce by that the q3 results will be very good. :-)