Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 12:32

Quick crunch of numbers through my model for FY 2018

Rev $480m
PAT $231m
Following based on share price of 1040p and 1.32fx rate
PE 6.8
Yield 9% basic and up to 15% inc specials and buybacks
This will obviously change (up or down) and is my rough first run
dyor etc. SJ

[3rd eye] 31/10/2017 12:17

PLUS plus500........

Revenue up by 50%, new customers up by 70%

Customer acquisition costs halving

Broker liberum

Today's Q3'17 IMS is very strong and once again proves the resilience of the business in what has been a year characterized by increased regulation in Europe. The regulatory barriers could increase further in CY18 as ESMA is due to issue new guidelines in Q1'18. Consequently, we continue to err on the side of caution in relation to our own forecasts but given performance to date, we would not be surprised to see a continuation of the positive trend.

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 12:14

Another mention from the Alphaville boys at the FT
Choking on on humble pie again as Murphy finally admits that "I was completely wrong on this one -- all the way up" and they also indicate again they don't really understand PLUS.

But they aren't the only ones Mr M doesn't either - hence the ongoing opportunity
PE sub 8 vs IGG PE 14 and CMCX PE 12 (That PE gap needs to close - from both directions! imo)

[cfro] 31/10/2017 10:19

Yes, its certainly boom time for the crypto's and PLUS is clearly in the right place at the right time.

[nimbo1] 31/10/2017 10:03

Sunday night I was bored so downloaded the plus 500 app and bought some cryptocurrenies on leverage. I made about £150 in the first few mins and lost £200 in the following 20. Given the starting price and spread Plus 500 made £200 from me. If they have 10,000's people doing the same q4 will be good. A friend turned to me the other day and said he'd been buying bitcoin through cfd's - amazing considering he's never invested in a share before. So its boom time for Plus and I am pleased to be holding.

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 09:50

A gushing update from Leaprate! enjoy!

[shaker44] 31/10/2017 09:45

This is a money machine!!

[interceptor2] 31/10/2017 09:39

mickharkins1, I had the same thought re Crypto currencies, I am sure you are right.

[interceptor2] 31/10/2017 09:37

The strong increase in new customer wins alongside the increased revenue per user and reduced customer acquisition costs are likely to prove powerful drivers during Q4 and the future.

Difficult to calculate the effect now so best to use conservative estimates and await another ahead update before the results in February.

BTW, Also my largest holding.

[mickharkins1] 31/10/2017 09:36

alan, my guess on how they achieved such low AUAC numbers is due to cryptocurrencies, which also explains the huge growth in new customers.

These customers are looking for a way to trade these new products and are finding PLUS as they are one of the leaders in this field, rather than PLUS having to go out and find them!

[alan00] 31/10/2017 09:13

Agree very strong results. Anyone have a view how they are achieving such low AUAC numbers?

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 09:01

I don't think Mr M has quite realised the significance of the step change in new customer numbers yet!

42.5k is a 32% increase on Q2 and a massive 67% increase on previous 4 quarters averaged. It obviously takes a little time for new customer rev to wash through as they on average join mid way through the quarter

Model update at current price (Q4 rev est $120m)
FY PAT $203m - PE 7.7 (at 1040/1.32) and Yield 7.8% base to 13% inc specials/buybacks
YE cash estimate $232m after $27m divi in Nov

Edit - IC2 my PE est now 7.7 (hadn't changed share price to 1040 in prev calc!) so we are in agreement

[interceptor2] 31/10/2017 08:58

They give net profit figures in today's update which is very handy for working out likely full year results. By just extrapolating the figures to the full year with only a modest improvement in Q4 would give EPS of 128p for a PER of 8. But due to higher revenue per customer and significantly lower acquisition per customer cost I think the chances are that my estimate will prove too conservative.

I agree with your workings out SJ, because it would only take a modest increase in Q4 figures to see a PE of 7.3.

[pbutterworth1] 31/10/2017 08:37

PLUS is also my largest position with 14,000 shares, closely followed by ZOO
GLA DYOR

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 08:31

Observation!
PLUS's shareprice is often consolidates at round numbers (bots?)
So perhaps establish 1050 this week before consolidating at 1100 in November
We shall see - remains my largest position

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 08:20

Thanks pb1 - crunching numbers and reading other stuff! Busy news day!

[pbutterworth1] 31/10/2017 08:17

These results are stellar. If margins are sustainable (no reason AUAC should decrease much) the market is now seriously undervaluing capitalisation. Expect re re rating.

[sailing john] 31/10/2017 08:16

Cracking results as expected with the most significant aspect being new customers at 42.5k (Prev quarters were looking back 32k, 22k, 22k, 25k, 28k)
So a step change that will wash through into Q4
Updated my model with a Q4 Rev increased to $120m giving a FY outcome of:-
PE 7.3
Yield 8.2% (and up to 13.6% inc special/buyback)
Year end cash $232m (after 1H divi paid Nov $27m)

Through £10 today - usually takes Mr M a few days (actually a week or two) to crunch numbers so I'm looking for £11 by Xmas and £12+ post FY results especially if we get the long awaited premium listing announcement
GL - SJ

[pbutterworth1] 31/10/2017 08:08

SJ - Hope you are OK. Noteable by your absence :-(

[fenners66] 31/10/2017 08:07

SP ticking up nicely

[thevaluehunter] 31/10/2017 08:01

Yep EBITDA growth is incredible.

[interceptor2] 31/10/2017 07:50

Astonishing update with so many positives, new customers won during Q3 just one example.

Plenty of figures to digest.

[nurdin] 31/10/2017 07:38

Cracking growth in Q3 which looks set to continue into Q4...excellent.

[nfs] 31/10/2017 07:37

Fantastic profit and cash conversion