Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 28/9/2017 08:20

CMCX 1H TS sounds positive
"Profitability in H1 2018 is significantly higher than the same period in 2017 with both net operating income and revenue per client higher (and marginally higher than H2 2017), driven by increased client volumes."

And LCG 1H generally positive
However, still loss making - pretty obvious they need to increase cost of sales (S&M) and massively decrease admin costs.

Generally positive market sentiment - good for PLUS

[thorpematt] 27/9/2017 16:00

I only have 2 brokers listed as covering here - so not surprising that there can be a little lack of imediate and upto date forecast.

I have forward PER of about 8.

Strip out cash projections and you are very cheap indeed. The TS rather dimisses the concept og caution with regard to a possible dissapointment I would suggest.


As I mention before, a consolidation (usually in the shape of pennant) followed by a breakout is the most likely chart pattern here.

NOT taking profits too early is the difficult bit.

[poolefox] 27/9/2017 13:48

Thanks SJ I believe PLUS500 to be exceptionally cheap but it would cost Playtech 2.5/3 times their original offer today

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 13:33

Poolefox - I agree
However, whilst PLUS appears to be more expensive - it isn't given the step change in Revenue/Profit. PE remains around 7

Regarding regulatory concerns driving down PE here (though not at IG!)
Worth reading comments from IG regarding Regulatory issues and leverage constraints in their annual report. I think from memory they said that customers hold more cash than they need and leverage is typically around 10 - so perhaps Mr M and our concerns are being overplayed?

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 13:26

Douglas - thanks for your pm - I don't think I can reply as I'm not a blue.
You didn't say who had produced the article that you sent - perhaps PM info
Anyway for info my current model output is for an eps of 129p (1.34$/£) having just revised Q3 revenue up from $107m to $115m and Q4 up from $105m to $110m
Hoping I'm still being far too cautious as I always have been in the past
EDIT - In M6 they generated cash of $32m implying revenue of over $60m/month ($180m/quarter) - I daren't think that is even possible so have assumed some unusual cash movements - until I'm proved wrong of course!
GL - SJ

[poolefox] 27/9/2017 13:26

Thanks SJ Plus500 an altogether more costly proposition now to buy,although a high growth company

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 13:08

poolefox - re Regulatory objection
I think that was thought to be down to Sagis holding at the time of 33%. He reduced down to 21.6% last November and has since reduced to 6.6% in June this year, so if that was the issue - it isn't now.

[andrewbaker] 27/9/2017 12:55

The trading statement once again is good. The share price once again has taken off. The biggest worry here is that it is too good; yet, I don't think so, so continue to hold and take my altitude sickness pills!!

[shanklin] 27/9/2017 12:50

What are the revised broker forecasts please?

[poolefox] 27/9/2017 12:46

SJ Exactly and its more flexible platform to adapt to regulatory change and market opportunities such as cryptocurrencies plus its relative value would make more sense.Didnt the regulators object to Playtechs approach before?

[shaker44] 27/9/2017 12:44

Hmm. Maybe that's why Ptec shares have been running back lately

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 12:35

poolefox - whilst my gut feel is that Playtech won't bid - I made a note of a discussion on FT Alphaville about Playtech and IG on the 9th May 2017. My thoughts were that PLUS would make a better target given smaller size, PE and potential for growth especially as Playtech already hold 10%.

From 11.53 here

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 11:56

I see we got a mention (actually a full discussion and broker note extracts) on Alphaville today

Paul and Bryce now almost choking on humble pie!!! lol

[dennislevine] 27/9/2017 11:32

alan00: reference will be to revised broker expectations post the interims on 7 August, both brokers have revised upwards their numbers again today

[poolefox] 27/9/2017 11:22

Potentially to fend off takeover bids,rumour of another bid from Playtech now Plus have resolved all regulatory issues that they might be coming back with a bid

[alan00] 27/9/2017 11:13

I'm long, but don't really get the point of this trading update to be honest. Hardly any information, and not really new information at that (unless referring to revised market expectations maybe?). Does make you wonder if they are trying to boost the SP, not sure why they would bother though at this point.

[nurdin] 27/9/2017 10:28

Id prefer a special divi instead of share buy backs.The later only serves to reduce the pe which serves no purpose when the market is not prepared to accord a high rating...all imo

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 10:16

Yes spotted that yesterday but didn't look significant when you read the detail.
Don't think that today's announcement is linked and there is no evidence that PLUS ever try to defend the share price - usually they are quite downbeat in their statements hence my view that "ahead" = AHEAD.
We shall see in a few weeks!

[planelondon] 27/9/2017 10:04

I this morning's RNS is directly related to the news yesterday that PLUS was denied a financial services license in Bulgaria. See below:

www.leaprate.com/forex/brokers/exclusive-plus500-denied-financial-services-license-bulgaria/

As SJ points out, the share buyback is managed independently of PLUS and cannot be used PLUS's board to defend the share price to any adverse reaction to this news. A positive) trading update is one of the ways open PLUS's board to counter this news and it appears to have had the desired effect.

[nurdin] 27/9/2017 09:59

It is only the fact that it is an Israeli company that is preventing it from getting a higher rating imo

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 09:38

Further to IC2s comment above re unscheduled TS

It will be pretty obvious to everyone working at PLUS how the business is performing. Only Directors and Senior managers/accountants probably restricted by internal insider dealing rules. This announcement made early and formal Q3TS later than in previous years (2015 12Oct and 2016 24Oct) was perhaps deemed necessary to protect staff who might be dealing in the Company's stock? (just a thought!)

[nfs] 27/9/2017 09:37

My question is ,is this above expectations the revised expectations after the last results? Or simply above original expectations before the H1 results?

[poolefox] 27/9/2017 08:56

Thanks SJ I appreciate your comments I've bought some more at 871 difficult to ignore free money,it was already my largest holding

[sailing john] 27/9/2017 08:50

poolefox
Presumably Mr M doesn't read this thread!!!!!
We have been forecasting PLUS's half yearly results for some time - and so far we have been right (although always cautious so on the low side) and the big boys have been playing catch up! (and paying a higher price waiting to see actual results rather than building models and doing some basic leg work - I despair sometimes!)