Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[bargainsniper] 10/12/2024 11:02

economic growth is in the US not EU

[schofip] 09/12/2024 14:15

Closer relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) will boost economic growth, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will tell finance leaders on Monday.

In the first address by a British chancellor to the Eurogroup since Brexit, Reeves will say that a "reset" in relations would mean "breaking down barriers to trade" as well as helping "businesses sell in each other's markets".

What's good for the markets is good for Phoenix. At last the heads are lifting out of the sand.

[aleman] 07/12/2024 19:11

PPF risk developments 12.1 and 12.2 are interesting. They are existing and modelled reserves versus existing and modelled future claims. Reserves are still growing and will continue to grow. Liabilities have stopped growing since the good and improving state of current pensions funding means there are few rescues happening or expected. (Companies going bust are now mostly fully funded. That might change!) From the graphs, the current figure is about £13.5bn-£9.5bn=£4bn surplus while 2035 estimates are £23-40bn for reserves and £9.5-14.0bn for liabilities. That's a 2035 surplus of £9bn to £30.5bn as the PPF moves into wind-down mode.

So they are levying and provisioning cautiously, but what happens to the growing pile of investments if they are being too cautious? This is all money that has been levied from existing pension funds and put aside. It might all be needed but the plan seems to be to build up a multibillion fund that has no apparent home if all goes to plan. (There might be a home I have not found, e.g. a plan to just send it to government reserves.) Who will it belong to when it goes into run-down? It's like the surplus capital reserves that PHNX tap into as they acquire, consolidate and run-down closed-book pensions - but on steroids. Could PHNX take on the PPF and its surplus at some time in future?

[aleman] 07/12/2024 12:02

Right - I gather the PPF rescues at full restoration for pensioners but only 90% for contributors. I think the accounting change might be not be just allowing for contributors' compensation of 100% but also the buy-out value for the whole fund (which might allow some profit for the buyer?), which could be a bit higher. Basically, the PPF has gone into a big enough surplus under the less generous terms that it might be preparing to rescue funds at more generous full restoration of benefits, and might even be setting up to sell saved ones on at a profit??? If it is to rescue at full benefits for all, it might need to up charges again (last year's total levy on funds halved), so the new calculation also allows the PPF to work out what to charge each fund on a new risk basis rather than the old risk basis with reduced terms. Bear in mind this is the musings of somebody not familiar with it all.

As in previous years, PPF actuaries have also produced full buy-out estimates
– i.e. based on original scheme levels of pension – of the funding position for
The Purple Book 2024 dataset. These estimates are calculated in the same
way as described above except an approximate allowance is made for the
difference between the compensation the PPF would pay members and
the benefit levels paid by schemes (according to the scheme benefits data
submitted on Exchange).

Google "Purple Book 2024". There's quite a lot of interesting info in it. I have not found longevity yet, but it's interesting that the already improving surplus situation started to accelerate since Covid. I'm wondering if the plateauing of life expectancies is leading to more rapid improvement.

[fenners66] 07/12/2024 11:50

MRF

Pensions Protection Fund (PPF) Front page
Welcome to the PPF short paragraph, then News and Blogs
followed by
a bigger section on Sustainable Strategy - how they get to Net Zero
then
Careers and Vacancies - always looking for people that share their "values" which include
of course Diversity and Inclusion.

Below that
Freedom of Info
Modern Slavery Statement
and Whistle Blowing Policy.....


They are a Public Sector body and support (in their vacancies) working from home...

I wonder if someone used their whistle blowing policy to inform on the errors that led to about a 20% error in funding requirements?

Who do they answer to? Who loses their job if the numbers are wrong ? How do they go "bust" ?

No one , no one and they don't.

Compare and contrast to Phoenix where there is real life pressure to make it work and create a profit.
Chalk and cheese.
I am not surprised a public body makes more massive errors - errors that if reported at Phnx would see heads rolling ( and not the Archbishop's!). The CEO and others would likely be out of the door and the share price would no doubt collapse.

But the PPF will just carry on as if nothing has happened it will barely get reported and the dept for work and pensions will probably give them a bonus for "finding their errors".

They will claim this would not have happened if they were not underfunded and understaffed , get more money and employees and a pay rise for managers now managing bigger teams -WFH of course.

In short your worries are likely totally unfounded.
Professionals vs....

[my retirement fund] 07/12/2024 10:52

I'm sure they did. However, why should their accountants and valuers be any different from accountants and valuers both looking of lifeboat regs and indeed those existing unconsolidated funds that haven't been sold on? The world of experts in this arena is very much a revolving door in any case!

[netcurtains] 07/12/2024 07:49

The pensions thingy...
I'm sure Phoenix looked at the accounts before they bought 😀...
And...
if there was a problem they wouldn't keep snapping them up ...
I think the evidence is on LGEN and PHNX side. They are
the experts. And they keep buying.

[jubberjim] 06/12/2024 16:36

I am a professional cynic and my hearts not in it

Neither is anyone else

But did take a few this pm

Not making sense

Many a slip twixt cup and lip

I'm just one big cliche

Luck to all

[my retirement fund] 06/12/2024 15:54

Aleman, my concern is that if the lifeboat regulator is now admitting huge shortfalls having discovered this legacy valuation error in the equations, then how an earth can you expect closed pension consolidators like Phoenix to have correctly valued them. Once purchased, the liabilities belong to the consolidator. How can you be sure the funds then are truly sound? The equity here could be worthless if so. Why should you expect the lifeboat auditors to be less diligent than Phoenix? Lets put it another way, if Phoenix purchased all these closed books a considerably less than the lifeboats valuation, then we an earth would anyone have sold such an undervalued book when previously it was supposed to be worth a lot more? This was my point.

[yump] 06/12/2024 15:53

International bargain hunters will appear.

[adejuk] 06/12/2024 15:45

some guy on 'today' this am saying there will be a boom in uk stocks next spring.
what planet are these people living on?

[aleman] 06/12/2024 14:57

What's the Pensions Lifeboat got to do with it? Isn't the Pensions Regulator the body that regulates pensions, and actuaries and trustees the ones that work out assets and liabilities under its umbrella?

Also yesterday, as it happens:

[my retirement fund] 06/12/2024 12:01

Surely, the writing is clearly one the wall now for future dividends cuts: UK pensions lifeboat wipes £283bn off defined benefit funding estimates - https://on.ft.com/49pRqDd via @FT

[netcurtains] 05/12/2024 13:45

Do you mean tomorrow?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/12/2024 13:37

We had trading updates here, 06.12.2022 and 01.02.2024, see what arrives for us holders this year.. :o)

[tornado12] 05/12/2024 12:18

Maybe some positive vibes carried over from LGEN update yesterday. A bit of a wait until news here unless they update “ out of the blue “ like they have done in the past. I am quietly confident they are on track … . GLA

[tuftymatt] 05/12/2024 08:50

Good news even if the increase is less than 2%

In my opinion this one will run past the September high by the time we get to April and lock in the next divi.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[cwa1] 05/12/2024 07:48

*DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES PHOENIX GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 580 (570) PENCE - 'HOLD'

[my retirement fund] 04/12/2024 13:21

Yea great isn't it! Like Russia, where you can get 14% dividend yeild from Lukoil or 24% from Severstal!

[skinny] 04/12/2024 11:17

Pander - he spoke this morning apparently - if ever there was an example of the Peter's principle....

[thebutler] 04/12/2024 11:05

Disagree. The London Stock Exchange is a fantastic place to buy bargain shares with yields of circa 10%. why on earth do folk moan and groan and would rather pay much more for lower yielding shares? Cannot understand that.

[cwa1] 04/12/2024 07:34

Groan...

*JPMORGAN CUTS PHOENIX GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 500 (510) PENCE - 'UNDERWEIGHT'

[pander45] 03/12/2024 22:48

Ah that independent bastion of all things wise, the Bank of England. Have you seen who is in charge? His foot is like a magnet to "in it".