Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 28/3/2014 10:01

Looks like a tremendous buying opportunity. Already fully loaded with PHNX but would be tempted to add a few more if only funds were available. Why does one never have spare funds when one really needs them. Grrrrrr :o(

[fenners66] 28/3/2014 09:23

Market is not buying the closed fund story for Phoenix at the moment though.
Ouch...

[scburbs] 28/3/2014 08:35

Any chance that the investigation might show that a specialist closed life business can run a closed book of business much more efficiently than an insurer focussed on other things?

I think I may be moving into wishful thinking, hoping the FCA will spread PHNX's business case to a wider audience for them!

In any event, time for the PR dept to get out there to make this point in the press coverage which will follow.

[scburbs] 28/3/2014 08:26

Thanks to Skinny for posting the BBC link on RSL page which is even clearer on who the FCA are targeting (i.e. insurers with open and closed books). Does look like good news for PHNX on the acquisition trail, although more info on Monday.

"The FCA also said it feared "zombie" funds, which are closed to new clients, are being used by insurers to pay bills from other parts of their businesses.

Details of the investigation will be published on Monday, as part of the FCA's annual business plan.

Clive Adamson, the FCA's director of supervision, told the Daily Telegraph: "We want to find out how closed-book products are being serviced by insurance companies, as we are concerned insurers are allocating an unfair amount of overheads to historic funds.

"As firms cut prices and create new products, there is a danger that customers with older contracts are forgotten," Mr Adamson added."

[scburbs] 28/3/2014 08:18

Fenners66, The decision had been delayed and the language around future cuts is what is doing the damage IMV.

""We are going to put charges in a vice and we will tighten the pressure, year after year," he said."

Pension Minister quote from FT article.

[fenners66] 28/3/2014 08:18

The 0.75% cap was already known

[scburbs] 28/3/2014 08:15

Thanks Madmix. Looks like postive news for PHNX as this is targetted as insurers with open and closed books to ensure the closed book is not being treated unfairly. This should shake out some excellent acquisition opportunities for PHNX.

PHNX can't treat closed book customers worse as they only have closed book customers!

"The Telegraph quoted FCA director of supervision Clive Adamson, as saying: 'We want to find out how closed-book products are being serviced by insurance companies, as we are concerned insurers are allocating an unfair amount of overheads to historic funds.

'As firms cut prices and create new products, there is a danger that customers with older contracts are forgotten. We want to ensure they get a fair deal. As part of the review we will collect information to establish whether we need to intervene on exit charges.'"

[madmix] 28/3/2014 08:12

"The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is to launch a review into close-book life and pension products sold as far back as the 1970s amid concerns over unfair terms and exit charges."

www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fca-to-review-closed-book-products-amid-exit-fee-concerns/a743391?ref=new-model-adviser-latest-news-list

[scburbs] 28/3/2014 08:11

No more charging lots of fees for workplace pensions!

Hang on a minute they don't have an asset manager! There fees were well below 75bp for that type of activity anyway.

"Ministers have imposed a cap of 0.75 per cent on charges for workplace auto-enrolment pensions from April 2015 and threatened to cut it further in future."

[philo124] 28/3/2014 08:07

Aviva as well.

[hvs] 27/3/2014 16:53

Oh yes

That would do me fine.

[hvs] 27/3/2014 16:53

Oh yes

That would do me fine.

[fenners66] 27/3/2014 16:04

That would be nice

[fenners66] 27/3/2014 12:07

Thanks jon

[jonwig] 27/3/2014 12:06

Only this one, fenners:

26 Mar Canaccord Genuity Buy sp: 743.25 otp: 865.00 ntp: 865.00 Reiterates

[fenners66] 27/3/2014 10:30

Anyone got any more info on updated Broker views after the results?

[ursus] 27/3/2014 10:20

But Manjit Dale's 13m remaining shares are possibly going to hit the market soon - the 120 days runs out in April. Am I alone in thinking that he shd have been asked to resign immediately as a ned once he made the first large sale at the end of 2013?

[hvs] 27/3/2014 09:41

Fly my little beauty.

Thats what wings are for.

[hvs] 26/3/2014 16:15

Now 90% would be very nice indeed with the divi thrown in.

Expect a re-rating.

[aleman] 26/3/2014 11:04

For the companies in our sample, the average market capitalisation rose as a percentage of embedded value from 77% to 90% between 2011 and 2012.

[scburbs] 26/3/2014 11:03

Presentation is up on the website.

Slide 27 shows that they are projected to generate enough new cash by 2019 in order to service all debt obligations including the £300m Pearl repayment whilst still having £130m (57.8p) per year for dividends and maintaining c.£1bn of cash.

At the end of 2019 senior debt projected to be down to £677m against prospective cash generation of over £3.6bn.

Slide 28 shows detailed overview of the annuity business.

Overall impression is that the current share price rating looks increasingly wrong.

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/~/media/Files/P/Phoenix-Group-V2/Attachments/results-presentations/FY-2013-Investor-Presentation.pdf

[robsy2] 26/3/2014 10:21

OK I've had a quick look at the accounts 246 pages .....
They say the best parameter for shareholder value is MCEV. They will only take on new books of business if they can enhance MCEV so that seems sensible for us.
OK MCEV is at 31.12.13 2.378m , post Ignis sale 2.615m , target for 31.12.16 2.915m.
So, prospective MCEV per share , 212m shares for 2016 is 13.75 GBP, current price 7.40, so it seems like a safe bet.
If they maintain dividends or increase slightly in line with inflation and don't get any re-rating , which seems unlikely, then we will trade on 75% of MCEV by 31.12.16 so that's 10.30.
7.40 to 10.30 in 2 years is about 18% a year + the dividends makes this look like a strong buy to me.
If there is anything I've missed please let me know.
Management has to achieve these objectives of course , but there is little for them to mess up so we should be alright.
R2

[philo124] 26/3/2014 08:19

Good rise.