Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[vraic] 31/1/2014 18:41

Every one seems so bullish, As a holder of a London Life Policy I am disgusted
with the management .For the third year running I have to phone for numbers
on a policy which should have been sent 2 months ago.
Read my messages 540 544 549[lots Of detail] which I posted a year ago!

Still waiting.......Am told it could take a while longer.

will keep readers posted.

[philo124] 20/1/2014 16:33

Nice Move.

[philo124] 09/1/2014 13:53

Thank you; I read whilst in Qatar that Spain and Irish banks are now sorted. lol

[scburbs] 09/1/2014 13:35

I thought it was about time someone posted!

The big trend for the new year seems to be a large reduction in credit spreads paid by borrowers such as Ireland and other European peripheries as well as corporate borrowers.

Ignoring the obvious fact that PHNX is a much better yield play than 3.5% for 10 year Irish paper, it is worth remembering that credit spreads is also a key driver of PHNX MCEV.

As per P31 of the attached, a 1% decrease in credit spreads is worth £146m (65p) on MCEV.

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/~/media/Files/P/Phoenix-Group-V2/Attachments/results-presentations/HY-2013-Investor-Presentation-FINAL.pdf

[dennisten] 20/12/2013 15:34

i.c.20th Dec - 22m sold premature.

[philo124] 20/12/2013 09:27

Hope so at close.

[madmix] 20/12/2013 09:05

£7 broken...

[aleman] 19/12/2013 15:06

Stuck to the underside of 700p. How many times can it hit it before it breaks?

[speedsgh] 17/12/2013 16:29

Another director/PDMR purchase yesterday worth £24k+. Reassuring.

[speedsgh] 12/12/2013 19:33

Nice to see one or two purchases by PDMRs at this level, even if they aren't the largest.

[jonwig] 12/12/2013 08:42

"Admin Re's return on equity is 3%".

The PHNX ROE (my calcs):

2012 17%
2011 -4%
2010. 4%
2009 10% ... average nearly 7%.

More realistic might be ROCE, where both companies are probably pretty similar.

[hvs] 11/12/2013 15:09

lol !!!!!

A steep fall ?

Then we all fall down like him numptiness.

[jonwig] 11/12/2013 14:54

scburbs - thanks.

Really, I'm wondering what differentiates one business from another in this sector. Is Admin Re more 'mature' (ie. shorter average dates to maturity policies), are they kinder to their policyholders (maybe so!!)?

I remember the May presentation, but what concerns me more is the potential volatility vs the market, and how robust their assumptions would be in a steep fall.

Anyway, a holder!

[scburbs] 11/12/2013 13:34

Jonwig,

Admin Re's problem is low profitability, not sure why that would imply PHNX has the same problem!

The PHNX cash flow does tail off quite sharply, but the dividend goes up (see pages 11/12 of the attached). The base case is that £900m of debt will support the £3.5bn of cash flow expected post 2023.

The projections show average dividends of £135m between 2013 and 2016 and £160m between 2017 and 2022 (albeit they stop amortising debt between 2017 and 2022 on the basis that £900m can be serviced out of the £3.5bn still to come).

This shows them meeting the dividend out of future cashflow, therefore, this would imply that in 2023 they would also have c.£0.7bn of cash (being current £1bn less £300m to repay Pearl facility).

Would it make sense for them to buy up other books at reasonable prices, of course it would, but there seems to be plenty left for shareholders in what they already have.

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/~/media/Files/P/Phoenix-Group-V2/Attachments/results-presentations/investor-day-presentation-16-05-2013.pdf

[jonwig] 11/12/2013 09:24

"He [Swiss re CEO] also indicated that he would try to improve the profitability of the division [Admin Re] by buying in more back books from elsewhere."

This suggests PHNX has exactly the same problem - and whilst they've pursued "management actions" (aka efficiencies, regulatory reorganisation of funds) and corporate moves (debt payoff, fundraising) their central aim of consolidating the sector isn't working.

At some point PHNX will run down if it can't perform this function. the debt will start to drag on a shrinking book unless it's further paid off.

I'm not absolutely negative on PHNX (and still hold), but I think I understand the market's reluctance to get enthusiastic at the yield and cashflows.

[scburbs] 10/12/2013 13:20

Interesting article in FT on Admin Re. Looks like there are no other buyers in the wings and Admin Re is talking about making acquisitions and trying to encourage JV partners to take a stake but rely on the Admin Re platform.

"Admin Re is a drag on the profitability of its Swiss parent. ... Its return on equity of 3 per cent

...

"We are looking for third-party capital players who could, in the acquisition of a portfolio, participate in the acquisition, but are definitely depending on the quality of our platform," he said.

...

He also indicated that he would try to improve the profitability of the division by buying in more back books from elsewhere."

[hvs] 09/12/2013 13:24

No worries here.

See it motor.

My traget is £ 8

[hydrus] 08/12/2013 13:02

It's very cheap IMO and the dividend is very nice

[jelenko] 07/12/2013 13:17

This company looks very cheap to me, where's the catch? Clearly I know an institution has baled out, but aside from this the profits look reliable and healthy.

[hydrus] 07/12/2013 10:21

If Phoenix was valued at £158 billion pounds I'd be retiring

[hvs] 06/12/2013 13:08

No worries, keep your faith.

[ursus] 06/12/2013 11:38

Well my purchase of a few thou at 705 a couple of days ago is looking unhappily timed....
It wd seem that Mr Dale disagreed with the decision to refuse the merger, and sees better value in selling now, even though at well below the market price post the merger collapse. One shd not discount his insider's judgement, but I do still feel relatively safe with the large yield and will prob continue to add in coming weeks.