Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 21/3/2014 13:21

The IDIOTS at BARCLAYS must be SHORT like six inches.

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes
20 Mar 14 Phoenix Group... Canaccord Genuity Buy 695.25 865.00 865.00 Reiterates
20 Mar 14 Phoenix Group... Barclays Capital Underweight 695.25 613.00 571.00 Reiterates
05 Mar 14 Phoenix Group... JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 695.25 915.00 915.00 Resumes

[hvs] 20/3/2014 11:07

No worries here .

[jonwig] 20/3/2014 10:54

The total annuity liability in 2012 was about £20bn, I think - haven't checked properly yet. The associated assets won't be much above that.
From the 2012 AR:

Ignis'
continued management of £4.7 billion
of assets on behalf of Guardian as part
of the annuity transfer by Phoenix Life
was a significant win. It reinforced Ignis'
position as one of the largest managers
of annuity assets in the UK. [p9]

New business profits generated from
vesting annuities during 2012 were
£20 million after tax (2011: £13 million). [p32]

So immediate profit from vesting an annuity will mostly flow to Ignis as a management charge. As I said, I'd guess most maturing pensions will either vest or re-invest, so it's up to PHNX and Ignis to keep the customers.
Judging by some policy holders' remarks on this board, they might need to smarten up their act in this regard!

I see RSL is another 7% down today despite their RNS.
Anyway, full year results due next Wednesday (26 March).

[lynton3] 20/3/2014 08:22

Comment from Resolution today: "We do not expect the changes announced today to have any impact on our Heritage business or our Group MCEV ...". I have topped up on Phoenix.

[fenners66] 19/3/2014 18:58

How about if you are a higher rate tax payer, selling the shares and putting the funds in a pension? Now you know you can get the money back again?

Caveat Pension law can change at any time and shaft you just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water...

[robsy2] 19/3/2014 18:54

Yes,'m not sure this is such bad news either for PHNX. How much of their business is annuities? If you don't take an annuity , the money stays where it is, they make money out of having tons of passive investors so that's possibly good, the money stays under management, with less capital tied up.
If I was a PHNX pension or product holder I'd be tempted to cash the lot in and buy the stock. You keep the capital and you get 7% annuity!
R2

[scburbs] 19/3/2014 18:22

Writing new annuities consumes capital. If PHNX write less annuities then cash flow is higher (in the short term). This is because capital is released from the business as the clients take their pension pots elsewhere.

If I remember rightly getting rid off £5bn of them was seen as a positive development!

"Phoenix Group Holdings announces an agreement to transfer approximately £5 billion of annuity in-payment liabilities to Guardian Financial Services in a transaction which accelerates the release of capital and increases cash generation by approximately £200 million in 2012. This is incremental to the Group's existing cash generation target of £500-600 million for 2012."



The run rate of new annuities in H1 was £400m, so c.£800m p.a. The margin on annuities is c.0.5-1%, so £4-8m p.a. if they lost all of the new business.

At a run rate of £800m p.a. it would take them over 6 years (in reality longer given the book is in run off so decreasing number of maturing pension pots) to replace the £5bn of annuities that they sold (and gave away the future profit entitlements too).

[aleman] 19/3/2014 16:38

Annuity sales fell 16% last year. Did insurers' shares get slaughtered? No. 67000 annuities at £18k each, paying £1k per year. How much profit will that be? £1.2bn cost paying out £67m per year. £120m profit per year across the whole sector maybe? Maybe less. Must be pretty thin if you spread it out. Probably won't affect some insurers much. £5bn has been wiped off insurance sector values. That seems too much at a quick glance.

Edit - found another source said it's 353,000 at an average of £36k. That would make profit more like £1bn per year. That makes the falls seem more reasonable

[fenners66] 19/3/2014 16:33

Must admit I did too.

[srichardson8] 19/3/2014 16:23

This is a silly move in the stock price and represents a buying opp. I have topped up.

[fenners66] 19/3/2014 16:10

The pension changes will address what was for me always the trouble with pensions - that I could save tax free but not necessarily for my benefit. I guess if I die without taking an annuity then the tax man can possibly still get his hands on 20-55% of the pot?

However I am far more likely to invest in my pensions now so the investment managers should gain whilst the annuity managers lose.

Does this mean less government bonds to be purchased?

Does that mean bond yields will rise?

Does that mean interest rates will rise generally?

Or will the ordinary man in the street just get an annuity anyway?

[dangersimpson2] 19/3/2014 16:07

I assume a reaction to Budget new SIPP rules meaning that buying an annuity is no longer compulsory - I don't think that would affect Phoenix's business though so maybe just moving in sympathy with the sector?

[brancho] 19/3/2014 16:05

Budget announced you no longer have to purchase an annuity in retirement - pension and insurance sector hit

[richardbroughton] 19/3/2014 15:42

What's happened?

[vraic] 18/3/2014 15:47

Now have statement for December 2011...Am told 2012 and 2013 will follow soon.

[aleman] 15/3/2014 12:29

Good luck with that.

[vraic] 14/3/2014 18:33

Aleman Thanks . Will call Phoenix next week, if no statement will then take action. Will not let this matter rest.

[scburbs] 10/3/2014 15:18

Results due on 26 March.

Dividend capacity for 2013 period is £125m or just under 55.6p. After an interim 26.7p, that means the range for the final dividend is likely to be 26.7p-28.9p.

For 2014 that goes up to £135m or 60p/share putting them on a prospective 8% yield (at 750p) for 2014 if they increase to the maximum.

[ursus] 04/3/2014 16:33

Thoughts on the price strength? Abt 13m shares are free to be sold by Dale from early April (why is he allowed to remain on the board while selling so aggressively?). And his chum Osmond has been selling too. Dale placed his first tranche of 22m shares at 1660, which knocked the share price in Nov 13 after the end of Swiss Re merger talks.
All of this makes me think that the price shd be in the doldrums, but it has been pretty resilient of late.

[vraic] 04/3/2014 14:49

Phoenix is a disgrace, I have written on here before .As a very long term London Life policy holder I am still waiting for my annual statement used to come end
November after calls/letters was told computer problems and I must be patient.
Still waiting.Wonder how many other holders get such poor service?
Has this company taken on too much?
Policy holders or shareholders.....who comes first?
.................

[speedsgh] 04/3/2014 13:56

Full year results due on 26/3 -

[hvs] 26/2/2014 15:31

Thats Life in LONDON then ?

[hvs] 18/2/2014 08:25

Safe as houses , not near the Thames though.