Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 21/2/2019 13:38

Seven pounds a stones throw away. This could have a very life in the FT100. £10 in a few years time anyone?

[lauders] 21/2/2019 01:10

Becoming part of the FTSE100 would be nice and just in time for the results on the 5th March:

Hopefully the very positive trend will continue on delivery of good results and dividend news.

[edmundshaw] 20/2/2019 20:32

Good point double. Perhaps explains the buying recently.

[doubleorquits] 20/2/2019 16:58

By my calculations PHNX will, if it retains its position until next week, enter the FTSE 100. It has a market cap at the moment that puts it into the index in 90th place. All still very close but falls in TUI and BKG today put them below PHNX now (they will not be eliminated, that dubious honour is held by WG. and GVC at the moment).

[lauders] 19/2/2019 09:15

Congratulations to PHNX's Financial Management Group for winning this award:

[edmundshaw] 13/2/2019 19:24

Yes, it looks like some large investor buying recently, but I would put a fair price as a minimum at 735p - stuill around 6.3% yield - and perhaps up to 800p.

Of course longer term this could be worth quite a bit more - there is still room for good growth in the business, in lifetime mortgages and bulk annuities for example, even without the larger SLAL/AXA Wealth/Abbey Life style deals. Of course they have competition from the likes of L&G and Aviva, but I don't think that puts them out of the picture by any means. Oh, and anyway I hold Aviva and L&G too... :-)

[schofip] 13/2/2019 16:51

Well if push comes to shove I actually bought in at £5.75 which for someone who normally gets it these things wrong got it right for once. I was merely pointing out the huge opportunity that appeared both during and after. my previous post was at £6.09. I also believe this share has much further to run and now is still not to late to acquire a solid share with an above average dividend yield.

[edmundshaw] 13/2/2019 14:15

Very few can have got 542p, as it was only at that price for a very brief length of time. It was however bobbling around the 560p mark for nearly a month, and that was certainly a good opportunity for anyone who was not already overweight from buying at around 590p...

[schofip] 13/2/2019 12:39

Thats on top of the £1.10 per share you just made after buying in at £5.42 just before Christmas. Plus you now have a 9.0% yield on those shares. Well done to those that did.

[jeff h] 13/2/2019 11:36

JP Morgan view:-

FY18e preview - Focus on cash generation guidance

Phoenix is to report FY18 results on 5th March. The company pre-reported FY18 cash generation figures at its Investor Day last November and so our focus will be on cash generation guidance for 2019 and 2020. Currently, we have £713m cash generation forecast for 2019 and 2020, which, in our view, would continue to underpin the strong dividend yield of c7.5%. In terms of 2018, we forecast:
1) IFRS operating profit of £538m of which £110m is coming from SLUK acquisition;
2) DPS of 46p a share, which is in line with management guidance of 3.5% uplift in final dividend; and
3) Solvency II surplus to decline marginally to £2.9bn reflecting a Solvency II ratio of c160%. Overall, we maintain our OW on Phoenix as we believe that its attractive dividend yield of 7.5% is well underpinned by stable cash generation from back book.

Cash generation: Given Phoenix has pre-reported its FY18 cash generation figures, our focus is on guidance for 2019/2020. At the moment, we forecast £713m gross cash generation in 2019 and 2020, which, in our view, is sufficient to cover operating expenses, dividend to shareholders and £100m a year debt re-payment.
IFRS earnings: We don’t really focus on IFRS earnings for Phoenix as it gets impacted by acquisition accounting. However, for FY18, we forecast IFRS operating earnings of £538m, of which £110m comes from SLUK acquisition. For 2019e/2020e, we have £354m/£384m IFRS earnings coming from SLUK business, taking total Group IFRS operating profits to £688m/£716m.

Our DPS forecast is 46p a share, which is in line with management guidance of 3.5% uplift in final dividend. For 2019e, onwards our DPS run rate is 46.8p a share.

We forecast Solvency II surplus to decline marginally to £2.9bn, reflecting a Solvency II ratio of c160%. The decline is mainly due to dividend payment and marginal mark-to-market impact partly supported by capital generation

[edmundshaw] 13/2/2019 10:34

650p is good, but we still yield 7.2%, I feel sure there is more to go!

[lauders] 12/2/2019 05:19

Some news from the PHNX team on their website:

Phoenix Group, Europe’s largest life and pensions consolidator, announced today that it has completed a £50 million private placement with A2Dominion Housing Group (“A2Dominion”). The funds will be used by A2Dominion to refinance maturing secured debt and progress with new opportunities to provide more social and affordable housing. The transaction provides regular cash flows to match Phoenix’s longer-dated pension liabilities.

[stun12] 05/2/2019 14:55

Not very broad-based this bounce in the FTSE, is it? I suppose PHNX is at the defensive end of the spectrum, though that didn't seem to stop it going down as the wider market fell.

Ah well. Sit back and enjoy the yield, I suppose.

[alter ego] 03/2/2019 08:43

try this link to Lauders post

[lauders] 03/2/2019 02:09

A bit on the quiet side here at the moment. Even the media page on PHNX's website hasn't been updated this year! Good to see the view in the link below and recent upgrade though: hxxps://www.proactive....investors.co.uk/companies/news/212964/phoenix-has-most-defensive-dividend-yield-among-life-insurers-as-brexit-looms-says-barclays-212964.html (remove the periods between "proactive" and "investors".

A couple of nice points from the piece:

. Phoenix has most defensive dividend yield among life insurers as Brexit looms, says Barclays

. While Phoenix’s dividend may not grow in the absence of further deals (which we do not model in our estimates), it does have the most defensive yield among its peers in times of market stress, and the recent acquisition of Standard Life Insurance protects the dividend for 18 years,” it said.

[jonwig] 31/1/2019 18:59

#92 at the moment, automatic entry at #90:

[contrarian joe] 31/1/2019 17:49

PHNX are sitting around 94/95 in all share at current state of play,there are quite a number of other stocks within small % of them,with bonds falling might give them a push to visit FTSE100 in early March.

[stemis] 25/1/2019 08:06

Well done those who bought at 550p. What a giveaway that turned out to be...

[edmundshaw] 24/1/2019 19:41

Based on the security of the income and dividend for many years hence, I consider this is one of the best and safest investments available at a good price at the moment. Not long ago this was priced at over £8 (post the last rights issue), and I can see this price being breached again once the Brexit dust settles.

It is my biggest holding (was my third biggest, but the top two got taken over last year!).

[cwa1] 24/1/2019 16:32

Decent day today......

[actybod] 10/1/2019 21:27

An uptrend would be nice now.

[rogerbridge] 09/1/2019 19:35

In the ISA for income.

[schofip] 09/1/2019 13:51

I think in time to come many will look back on the recent weakness in this stock as the best Christmas present they ever did or did not get.

[essentialinvestor] 27/12/2018 20:27

Appreciate the answer Jon, many thanks.