Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[schofip] 21/12/2018 18:19

Thought it might be something like that.
Thanks Jonwig I will put the champagne away.

[jonwig] 21/12/2018 17:10

schofip - the 4.6m trade at 16:35 was uncrossing at the closing auction, not therefore a 'buy'.

[schofip] 21/12/2018 17:07

Looks like there was 6M buys at the end of the day. Assume this is not some technical balancing.

[ianood] 12/12/2018 09:35

Jon/Edmund - thank you for that info, much appreciated.

[jonwig] 12/12/2018 06:24

edmund - sorry, missed that bit!

[edmundshaw] 11/12/2018 20:52

Jon, the other bit from that source is that they reckon SLA (Standard Life Aberdeen)
sold their insurance arm off 20% too cheaply. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that means a 25% upside for Phoenix to fair value on that purchase (ignoring costs at least). No wonder they were pleased with it!

[jonwig] 11/12/2018 20:12

This from RBC Capital Markets:

We expect the European insurance sector to outperform the market in 2019. An increase in underlying customer demand with little change in supply should increase insurers’ pricing power, leading to growing earnings.
Investors can be assured by a highly prudent solvency regime which keeps balance sheets strong and high-yielding dividends safe.
Top Picks – Aviva, Beazley, Just Group, Legal and General . Outperforms – Ageas, Direct Line, Lancashire, Munich Re, Phoenix, RSA. UK life – limited Brexit risk creates buying opportunity. The subsector has underperformed due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit, but even in a No Deal scenario, solvency and growth are only dented.
We see bulk annuities as the best structural growth opportunity in the sector — there is significant latent demand which is independent of economic growth and the prospect for large reserve releases due to slowing life expectancy.
The yields are highly attractive and dividends are extremely safe.

Source: FT Alphaville, Markets Live.

[linton5] 11/12/2018 15:27

Expecting an rns after 4 here let’s see

[nwb] 11/12/2018 08:57

jonwig - many thanks for the explanation

[deltrotter] 10/12/2018 20:50

Just a thought jonwig....

[jonwig] 10/12/2018 18:50

nwb - 721m is correct. NAV is therefore 436p from the latest balance sheet. However ... NAV doesn't capture the whole story because it omits future cashflows from in-force and new policies. Before Solvency2 they used an MCEV which did this, and would be higher than NAV - in fact, a lot higher than the current share price

deltrotter - dividend cut? Cashflows will cover the dividend, easily. But they need to retain a minimum Solvency2 capital surplus as well as service debt interest. If their underlying assets (which are bonds and shares) fell enough they would reduce their dividend.
Their current capital surplus is a "164% coverage ratio" which I don't really understand, but if it fell to 100% (ie. by 39%) maybe that would be the trigger.

"Purchase and hold forever" - up to you on that one!

[nwb] 10/12/2018 18:13

A quick question. ADVFN shows shares outstanding of 721 million. Stockopedia shows 436 million. A big difference in NAV per share of 830 p v 437 p. Any thoughts ?

[deltrotter] 10/12/2018 16:50

BUT, as a possible first time buyer - how about this as a purchase and hold for ever in my SIPP at this price?

Likelihood of a divi cut????

[linton5] 10/12/2018 16:48

My worst investment ever kidda shocked its phnx

[jonwig] 07/12/2018 09:25

edmund - yes, I think there are two sides to this. If rising rates are a threat to asset values - bad. if rising rates enable maturing bonds to be reinvested at a better coupon - good.

I think the first wins here, because of the asset bubble we're in and the threat of collapse.

[edmundshaw] 07/12/2018 09:16

Jon I remember reading that rising interest rates were supposed to be mildly good for Phoenix? Admittedly that was a couple of years back. Do you think that has changed after the acquisitions since then?

[jonwig] 07/12/2018 08:55

I wonder if reports that the Fed may pause its tightening, because of recession threats and feeble oil prices, will underpin this now? It does ease the threat of a bond meltdown which would impact PHNX's assets.

But things are moving so quickly that taking positions on short-term outlook is pretty risky.

[rcturner2] 07/12/2018 07:59

Director purchase.

[buywell3] 06/12/2018 21:19

With May in charge ? no chance of a swerve

2019 Global Downturn looks very much on the cards now with Trump running things and putting America first.

Defensive Sector stock picking will be the name of the game for the next 2 years at least IMO

This could test 400p in that period IMO as property, retail, tech, mining, Oil and finance stocks all get whacked

Like I said ... divi blinkers = cash destruction in many cases , again IMO

but BOL

[porsche1945] 06/12/2018 17:15

Financials hammered first and hardest....as always when market collapses...however will be first up when market recovers....its all getting hammered, no sector now including tech immune, however im dripping money in every day, once in a generation chance to pick up these yields, where else will you ever get these returns, interest rates likely to be going down not up now and property heading south for sure....some of these an oppurtunity, important to hold nerve, if uk can swerve brexit fiasco could see strong bounce.

[edmundshaw] 06/12/2018 17:01

buywell, no-one ramps a company as big as Phoenix unless they are daft. Would have no effect.

[buywell3] 06/12/2018 16:45

Just been looking

Anyone else noticed how the resident rampers have all been absent for the last few weeks ?

Probably been too busy off-loading

[buywell3] 06/12/2018 16:20

Looks like the wheels have fell off chartwise

divi blinkers = cash destruction

another leg down in prospect ?

dyor

[essentialinvestor] 06/12/2018 16:14

That's the last sector to succumb in a bear market - this may still be
a late cycle correction.

[linton5] 06/12/2018 16:11

Never thought Diageo was ever a better buy than this but there you go. Dge sitting near all time high just turn to drink when all around collapses🙈