Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 02/7/2019 12:09

Nudging one year highs, strong resistance level. Clearing above 735p level would be very positive move.

[edmundshaw] 26/6/2019 09:20

Would seem a tasty morsel...

[stemis] 25/6/2019 13:20

hxxps://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/quilter-said-to-consider-sale-of-closed-book-uk-life-insurance-portfolio--6754576.html

Wealth manager Quilter is said to be considering a sale of its closed-book UK life insurance portfolio.

According to Bloomberg, Swiss Re's UK unit Reassure Group and Phoenix Group Holdings are among those considering bids. It was understood that the assets could fetch about $500m.

[aleman] 18/6/2019 13:24

That often happens. A big float leads to weakness in others in the same sector ahead of the float, as institutions put aside a bit of money that otherwise might have gone into the others, or even sell some to balance out weightings. It would not be unusual at all. PHNX should see some relative strength once it is out of the way, especially as longer bond yields keep falling.

Government bond yields are running scared of inaction from central banks to deteriorating economic indicators. Stockmarkets are getting the wrong message on rate cuts - too slow and too late. Stockmarkets should be falling unless rate cuts speed up. Deteriorating liquidity conditions are driving yields down, causing banks to withdraw excess reserves from the Fed. The entire US Treasury curve is now near enough flat, at +0.17%. UK 10-years yield only 0.79% currently - down 0.06% today and from 1.79% in early October. Stockmarkets and PHNX's yield are yet to adjust but they should do before long. At £10, they'll yield around 5% and that will still look favourable compared to Gilts yields which are getting ever closer to zero and will stay there a long time if central banks don't pull their fingers out.

[bothdavis] 18/6/2019 11:58

Are people selling out to buy Swiss Re?

Regarding recent weakness......

[jonwig] 14/6/2019 07:37

This is the IPO notice for the Swiss Re company ("ReAssure Group) next month:

[jonwig] 10/6/2019 06:29

Yes, it's their intention to lead the consolidation race, but the new superfunds will have the edge, I think, in terms of size.

[lauders] 10/6/2019 02:11

Thanks jonwig and Skinny. Still expect PHNX to make another M&A deal one of these days. Could be sooner rather than later but I have no idea so will just sit back and collect the dividends in the meantime.

[skinny] 09/6/2019 10:55

Lauders - here is .

[jonwig] 09/6/2019 06:45

Thanks Lauders. Another, clickable link:



£3.5bn MCap is short of our £5bn. PHNX held merger talks with this firm in 2013 but they were broken off.

[lauders] 09/6/2019 05:13

Some more activity in the sector looks imminent: hxxps://www.proactive....investors.co.uk/companies/news/221714/reassure-to-float-in-london-as-part-of-spin-out-from-parent-swiss-re-221714.html

Have to remove the periods between "proactive" and "investors" to make the link work.

ReAssure, which buys up and manages life insurance policies from other insurers, has 4.3mln policies and £68.7bn of assets under administration, making it the sixth largest life insurance group in the UK by total assets.

If it floats it will join fellow listed closed-book life insurance consolidators Phoenix Group Holdings (LON:PHNX), valued at around £5bn, and £0.5bn valued Chesnara PLC (LON:CSN).

In a statement on Friday, ReAssure said it was well positioned to benefit from “significant closed book market opportunities” and has a five-year target to generate a cumulative surplus of £2.1bn, and from 2024 onwards of £4.1bn.

[ianood] 06/6/2019 19:29

Also, the RR / L&G transaction adds a bit of interest to the sector

[aleman] 06/6/2019 11:40

Bit perkier. Finally strarting to respond to falling long bond yields and the prospect of a growing number of interest rate cuts to come? (2 to 4 in the US, depending who you want to listen to. I think it will end up more if they don't get a move on.)

[ianood] 27/5/2019 08:19

I believe it is an actuarial/dcf valuation driven by selected/negotiated assumptions on inflation and gilt yields. From my limited experience it is not a cheap solution for an underfunded scheme more a release of an administrative burden.

[jonwig] 27/5/2019 06:43

ian - thanks, so the same thing. What I've never seen is any figure for the actual sum.

[ianood] 26/5/2019 22:45

jonwig - my understanding is that this is a transfer of risk from the Company to the purchaser who charges a fee (not insignificant) for taking on the risk.

[jonwig] 26/5/2019 17:40

Regarding these bulk purchase annuities, I've mentioned before that I don't know who pays whom for the transfer. My best guess goes like this;

M&S managing its own pension annuities needs to set aside capital for regulatory purposes and for risk (eg. longevity). Therefore it will pay PHNX (say) to be relieved of these. The size of PHNX and its capital surplus means it ought to be able to manage the book profitably, even while shouldering the risk.

If anyone can correct me here, I'd welcome it.

Incidentally, some new entities, "Super Funds" are being formed to act purely as consolidators. Currently there are two, I believe, Clara-Pensions and The Pension SuperFund. For some reason they won't be regulated as insurers and may be able to undercut such as Phoenix and Aviva in the market.

[lauders] 24/5/2019 14:39

Nice to see the M&S relationship doing well with a further £460 million bulk annuity deal with the Marks and Spencer Pension Scheme under pre-agreed “umbrella contract” terms:

[skinny] 09/5/2019 17:30

I've held MARS for the past 7 or 8 years - its roughly where it was when I bought it, but I did sell some when it was @+60%. What it has been is a very good hold for income.

[montyhedge] 09/5/2019 16:59

Yes some stocks are just for income, not a bad thing just saying.GSK shareprice below what it was 22 years ago.

[lauders] 09/5/2019 16:33

Somehow I doubt that montyhedge given the last acquisition/deal and any future M&A activity that will almost certainly develop over the following months/years. We shall see.

[jonwig] 09/5/2019 16:21

monty - if it's this price in five years with the income, who knows? - that might be a good result!

[montyhedge] 09/5/2019 15:44

Be this price still in 5 years time, good income no growth.

[masurenguy] 09/5/2019 08:35

Tempus likes Phoenix !

Phoenix generated £1.3 bn in cash in 2017 and 2018 combined, comfortably ahead of its target of between £1bn and £1.2bn. That, in turn, has encouraged the group to set an ambitious target of generating £600m to £700m in cash this year as part of a five-year aim of getting to £3.8bn. The group comfortably generates enough cash to meet its debt repayments of £88m last year and it is already talking about further future acquisitions.

Phoenix also increased all of its cost-savings targets in March, most strikingly adding £500m to its total hoped-for savings, for a figure of £1.22bn. All this cash generation helps to bolster the dividend, set at 46p last year but effectively annualised at 46.8p a share for the next few years. The payout, which feels quite conservative, gives Phoenix’s shares an enticing yield of about 6.6%, according to a Numis forecast. The shares at 679¾p yesterday, trade on a multiple of about 20.3 times the broker’s forecast earnings. This column recommended holding the shares in March, when the price stood at 710p. If they continue to fall, buy them, they should come back.

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/there-s-lots-of-life-left-in-this-zombie-kkl3p703c