Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 17/7/2019 08:58

Ughhhh. Even the Phoenix thread has been reduced to Brexit arguments. How very disappointing. How about we draw a line under this and take any Brexit discussion to one of the MANY other venues available for discussing it? Cheers.

[rcturner2] 17/7/2019 08:51

The stock market fell quite sharply around December 2018, a large number of stocks fell in unison.

At the time the main factor was reported as Brexit, which given that the potential for economic disruption caused by a disorganised exit is an entirely rational fear, seems reasonable to me.

[tournesol] 17/7/2019 08:32

I think you have misunderstood my comment.

Far from bringing politics into this discussion, I'm objecting to other people dragging politics into it.

I'm also objecting to attribution of causality which is not supported by evidence. We hear this being done all the time.
eg 1 "The Dow fell today because of increased tension in the Gulf."
eg 2 "The Dow rose today because of increased tension in the Gulf."

It is always useful to report fact - ie that something rose or fell. But when causality for the rise/fall is then attributed to some factor then it is not objective simply to rely on assertion alone. That way lies fake news. The problem is the "because".

To claim that a fall in PHNX was caused by Brexit is prima facie lacking in objectivity.

Do we think that Brexit influenced the entire market or just PHNX? Is there a particular negative/positive issue which relates specifically to PHNX but not other stocks? Why do we think that Brexit affected PHNX in a specific period but not before or after? What other factors might explain share price weakness?

My portfolio, like many others is displaying Goldilocks characterisitics - some stocks have risen, some remain unchanged, some have fallen. Can I safely blame Brexit for the fallers? If so, should I give credit to Brexit for the risers?

You get the general idea.

My reference to the BBC arises from my observation that their once rigorous reporting of news has become increasingly influenced by political bias. Last week they said that language teaching in schools was being scaled back because of Brexit. I mean really? That's just lazy reporting. It's making Brexit into a pantomime villain.

All I want is that we stop blaming Brexit (or anything else) for things which are most probably unrelated.

[schofip] 16/7/2019 21:39

No not saying it dropped further due to rights issue. Whether technical, brexit or other it certainly didn’t go up after the rights issue. As far as you can see it could easily happen again as brexit isn’t settled and another technical correction could happen. The point I am making is all the risks are still there.

[thamestrader] 16/7/2019 21:16

It seems to me that the bad stuff is the good stuff.

Bad stuff, brexit worries ——> sterling falls ——> stock market rises, good stuff

Surely not sustainable

[masurenguy] 16/7/2019 19:58

tournesol - 19:48: So the bad stuff is caused by Brexit, but not the good stuff? I think you are simply attributing blame because of your internal bias.

A totally unnecessary and unwanted comment. edmundshaw is a respected poster and you are just demonstrating your own political bigotry in that post.

[bothdavis] 16/7/2019 19:55

Please don't bring political bias onto a company board. I've had enough of all the right wing bias accusations or Trumpisms that are sending the world lurching into finger pointing and witch hunts!

[tournesol] 16/7/2019 19:48

edmund

...it did drop a lot on Brexit worries in November/December230;

You are blaming "brexit worries" for the fall in the share price.

I'd imagine that you do not credit "brexit worries" for the strong performance of much of the stock market over the past year?

So the bad stuff is caused by Brexit, but not the good stuff?

I think you are simply attributing blame because of your internal bias.

Perhaps you should consider a career working for the BBC.

[edmundshaw] 16/7/2019 10:55

Well it did drop a lot on Brexit worries in November/December. Not of course related to the rights issues. But still a very good opportunioty for Phoenix and indeed other financials like Legal and General...

[my retirement fund] 15/7/2019 19:06

Indeed and infact it rallied prior to rights on the news

[jonwig] 15/7/2019 16:44

schofip - it dropped 20% for technical reasons at end-June last year (the xr calculation). Are you saying it dropped 20% on top of that? It didn't.

Maths: (7*518 + 15*750)/22 = 676.

[schofip] 15/7/2019 13:23

Luckily I also bought in heavily at the bottom of the 20% drop. Not sure everyone else would have the opportunity todo that.

[schofip] 15/7/2019 13:21

My recollection of the last rights issue, which I took part in and bought additional shares was that the share price virtually collapsed soon after by about 20% and still has not fully recovered to where it was. So rights issues aren’t exactly a one way street,

[masurenguy] 15/7/2019 12:56

Deutsche Bank reiterate their Hold recommendation today with a price target of 740p.
Other recent broker recommendations:

13/06/19 RBC Capital Markets: Outperform: No PT
03/04/19 Barclays Capital: Equal weight: 694p
07/03/19 HSBC: Buy: 825p
06/03/19 JP Morgan Cazenove: Overweight: 857p

[lauders] 14/7/2019 11:40

Took up mine too and haven't regretted it so far. I reckon, if it were to become a reality, the market would be OK with it depending on the figures of course. Now we just have to see how things develop.

[jeff h] 14/7/2019 11:35

Jumping the gun a bit guys!.... only speculation but yes will be interesting to see what eventually happens to Reassure.

Yes would be another RI but I have taken up my rights with previous ones and the previous purchases are deemed to have been a success and have allowed the amount paid out in dividends to be increased so I guess they could get a further RI away to institutions without too many problems.

[jonwig] 14/7/2019 11:28

Another rights issue, then? Will the market have the appetite for that?

[lauders] 14/7/2019 11:26

Thanks Jeff H. PHNX certainly have the experience and a good track record. May mean another rights issue one day though? Will be interesting to see how it plays out!

[jeff h] 14/7/2019 11:23

Phoenix linked with a Reassure takeover:-

[actybod] 11/7/2019 21:51

MSA&D already have a contribution and the valuation is in line with the % and £ they paid. Rothesay also had a pitch in earlier in the year at the top end of the valuation. One business buys accumulates and outsources or retains multiple platforms. The other keeps everything in house on one platform. The S2 model for valuing the businesses could be on a different basis. I could go on and make a very technical contribution but I sold out at 719 so have no interest here until I decide to get back in around 650. Kind regards.

[jonwig] 11/7/2019 08:43

Actybod - I know, and I acknowledged that. Over to you, then. We look forward to your input.

[actybod] 11/7/2019 08:32

You can't make a comparison like that lol

[solarno lopez] 11/7/2019 08:13

Its where the AA and Saga listings went wrong, over priced through greed