Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 21/8/2012 20:06

At 697p offered the shares yield a prospective 10.76%.

Should the Sp reduce, the yield will, obviously, be greater. Crazy.

Surely - a must buy.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 18:51

From Hargreaves Lansdown:

"Half year results: Persimmon building on solid foundations for future growth. Whilst much of today's news was trailed in the July trading update, the key metrics are nonetheless impressive, with noticeable gains in revenues, legal completions, operating margins and cash generation. The group's cash position has now turned net positive from negative, whilst the multi-year return of surplus cash to shareholders is a sign of management intent and confidence. Next year's initial dividend will, at today's price, provide a double digit yield, which medium term may be of interest to income seeking investors. On the downside, the wider economic picture cannot be ignored, whilst the very availability of mortgage finance remains moot. Perhaps not surprisingly, the shares are pausing for breath in early trade, having added 28% over the last three months as compared to an 11% gain for the wider FTSE250. Over the last year, the contrast is even more stark – Persimmon shares have jumped 89%, during which period the wider FTSE250 added 18%. Even after this run, the shares remain at roughly half of their heady highs of early 2007. The general market consensus is also improving, having recently moved to a strong buy."

[barlick] 21/8/2012 17:49

Long term this is a 'no-brainer' which, as my wife would say, makes it right for me!!

Sticking.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 17:36

Not sure that's correct Barlick, the press might have interprete it that way but if that's ther case why are other builders all up?

I'd say PSN is off because traders bought ahead of the results - the last two lots of results have seen PSN soar due to the divi news and they thought it would do that again imo. As often it's better to travel than arrive and they sold the news.

But with 25p eps in H1 the 45p eps concensus will easily get beaten imo - in fact two brokers forecasting 50p eps now - Davey and Investec - I notice Investec notes never made the broker highlights and upgrades today :-)

Longer term investors will be in as the traders get out imo.

CR

[barlick] 21/8/2012 17:27

Seems it was all about the CEO's comments regarding the lack of mortgage opportunities. PSN the only one?

Silly day but no long term harm done.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 16:21

Nice intraday reversal going on - only down 8p now - new highs for these in the coming days imo

CR

[skinny] 21/8/2012 12:15

Take your pick!

Peel Hunt retains it's Buy Tp increased from 675p to 730p

Panmure Gordon downgrades to Hold Tp raised from 689p to 696p

Numis downgrades to Hold Tp 731p

Davy Research reiterates it's Outperform (no Tp)

Shore Capital reiterates it's sell (no Tp)

Northland Capital reiterates it's Buy Tp 725p

[jonwig] 21/8/2012 11:22

For the micro-movement watchers:

1039: Persimmon is one of the biggest underperformers in the market today. Although the home builder soundly beat analysts´ forecasts for pre-tax profit investors may be opting to take some money off the table given the very sharp rise seen in the company´s shares year-to-date. As well, analysts at both Panmure Gordon and Numis have today lowered their recommendation on the company´s shares to hold. FTSE 100 up 17 to 5,841.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 10:55

The whole sector is up today thanks to PSN results yet PSN down - ironinic or what?

But firming up now as brokers finally talk to the co post results imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 09:23

a few profit takers as these were at a high but I reckon these will be near the highs or at the high come the close once brokers notes get around imo - those results were superb imo..

CR

[baxter99] 21/8/2012 08:10

many thanks for the clarification - looks like a long-term hold then with dividends along the way

[jonwig] 21/8/2012 07:32

Housebuilders normally use retained profits to buy land (that's the capital investment bit).
As profits increase, the land gets more expensive and means profits are hit more when the cycle turns down.
PSN's happy decision was to buy enough land at the bottom sometimes from distressed sellers (instead of taking over other builders). So the investment was front-loaded and future profits can be distributed more completely.
Their balance sheet should also, therefore, be protected in any downturn - unless it's a real bust, which is unlikely.

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2012 07:23

Great results.

BKG are doing a similar think with the divi baxter00 - it's the way the company is demonstrating the value and returning that value to shareholders - as they should do as they own the company.

All imo/dyor.

CR

[skinny] 21/8/2012 07:22

Have a read under "Strategic review and long term Capital Return Plan".

[baxter99] 21/8/2012 07:13

Apologies but i am still fairly new to this but have PSN in my ISA based on the fundamentals a few months ago. Why do they want to return 620p per share to shareholders over the next 9 years? Is this another way of stating future dividends? 75p per share next june is more than 10% return at the current share price - much better than any savings investment (I know it is not guaranteed).

[cockneyrebel] 20/8/2012 15:04

Through £7 - results tomorrow

CR

[cockneyrebel] 20/8/2012 13:28

Market liked BVS results - the crumbiest builder of the lot imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2012 10:35

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Results season for the house builders is upon us, and Bovis Homes kicks it off on Monday after releasing what Peel Hunt regarded as the weakest trading statement of all the companies in the sector back in July.

Peel Hunt's beef is with Bovis's margins, which the broker thinks look set to slip below the levels seen in the second half of last year.

Peel Hunt is forecasting headline pre-tax profit of £14.6m, or £10.7m if land sale profits are excluded.

"We exclude land because of its weight: it represents 30% of pure housing profits," Peel Hunt explains.

"Bovis is trying hard to rectify a poor ROIC [return on investment capital] but we still cannot see the return being higher than 6.5% even by 2014 with the risks being more towards undershooting than beating current consensus. This must drag on valuation," argues the broker, which has a "sell" recommendation on Bovis.

Bovis's sector peer, Persimmon, follows up on Tuesday with its interims. "Attention will focus on current trade comments in our view, in order to get a feel for the sector's health ahead of the important Autumn trading season," Panmure Gordon said.

"We heard from Taylor Wimpey and Bellway a couple of weeks ago that July had perhaps been a little better than expectations with sales rates still ahead YOY [year-on-year] (though the volume of sales was much reduced due to the normal seasonal profile of sales). It will be interesting to see if August has maintained that momentum so far, so that we can get a picture of how the sector will run into September when trading becomes more important," the broker continued.

Panmure Gordon is forecasting an interim profit before tax of £90.9m, which is in excess of a 50% increase YOY.

[barlick] 17/8/2012 18:04

Thinking Tuesday may blow any resistance at 705 away!

This is a well run company that knows how to present to the market. Hoping BVS do OK on Monday as that will set the tone.

GLA

[cockneyrebel] 17/8/2012 08:13

Looking strong, next resistance 705p.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 16/8/2012 18:22

Well results on Tuesday get a fore-runner from BVS on Monday.

BVS nowhere near as good a co as PSN tho imo so expecting better from PSN than the Monday BVS show.

CR

[barlick] 16/8/2012 17:53

All about sector confidence in the short term. There are a few things I could have a little worry about but my PSN investment is NOT one of them.

Nothing moves in straight lines though.