Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 02/7/2012 10:04

Through the recent high.

Trading update tomorrow

CR

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2012 12:25

Leon Brittan on Bloomberg - one of the fruit cakes from Maggie's government and a complete Euro-sycophant.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2012 12:23

1020 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan Cazenove remains positive on UK housebuilders. Says flat market conditions mean housebuilders will grow margins and returns on equity year-over-year, over the medium term, with minimal execution risk. Estimates 82% upside to valuations by 2015. Says assumptions of a flat market seem reasonable, based on current reported conditions and lead indicators. Overweight-rated Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN) remains its top pick, with 37% upside to its 62p price target, nudged up from 60p. Says the stock's valuation overestimates risk to earnings and underestimates medium-term growth. UK housebuilders are among the best performers on the FTSE 250; Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN) +5.8%, Persimmon (PSN.LN) +5.4%, Taylor Wimpey +5.1%, Bovis Homes (BVS.LN) +4.2%.

[cockneyrebel] 29/6/2012 11:26

Nice reaction to BKG today and it's big divi policy today - PSN trading update in July

CR

[gorse] 08/6/2012 19:51

Barlick, I have various chunks of them in recent weeks - some in Selftrade a/c and some in Spreadbet. Now that I have them, I'll probably hold most of them if my liquidity stays OK ... if not, then I'll reduce my Spreadbet ... but hopefully well above this price!

[barlick] 08/6/2012 17:41

Gorse

Make you right. Quality management being the key!

Are you coming back in?

[gorse] 07/6/2012 18:15

I've had big profits from holding PSN for various periods in the 20 years before 2008. Not having followed them for a few years, I now found they seem to have manouevred themselves into a superb position and I put it down to: (1) good cost controls and gearing output to the market, and (2) buying lots of land/plots cheaply at the bottom of a depressed land market.

[barlick] 07/6/2012 17:10

Hope you bought Moneybags

[moneybags] 01/6/2012 12:41

more of a buy then they were yesterday.On radar now.....

Regards, Moneybags

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2012 18:47

Agree that to an extent they can be self-fulfilling but if you know that then why not take advantage of it?

I would rarely use charts as a stand alone but make a good extra tool imo.

They do often show turning points when in conjunction with high volume as the chart often shows the seller finishing.

CR

[barlick] 30/5/2012 17:30

CR

My 'thing' with graphs is that they are a self-fulfilling prophecy as chartists see a sell indication & then sell etc..

I have read before that there has never been a long term successful chartist & I doubt if Buffett would ever use them on the basis he likes to run at the herd not with it.

Only my opinion & what the F do I know??

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2012 13:37

I disagree about charts Barlick. While not a perfect guide the trend in the chart is a good guide to the homogonisation of the knowledge in the mkt. Charts going down tend to continue and vice versa imo. Useful for timing your buys/sells.

Mortgage approvals 52k today, - came in ahead of the 50k expected.

CR

[jeffian] 30/5/2012 00:06

"...it was not that long ago the market could not get enough of these above £10."

Actually, it peaked at just over £15 in 2007/8...........when the earnings per share were 138p giving a PER of 10.87

[barlick] 29/5/2012 17:34

Great to see some educated chat on here again by the way. Keep it up people, never know word might get around?

Sorry CR about the contrived chart remark. It is just that I think charts are about as useful as horoscopes & only work on a self-fulfilling basis.

[barlick] 29/5/2012 17:30

I'm with you CR as it was not that long ago the market could not get enough of these above £10.

IMO the price is holding up OK in a very negative environment &, arguably, the company is in a stronger position than 4-5 years ago.

I think the management are telling us that with their forward strategy & I intend to stick around & look smugger(!?) as time goes by!!

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2012 16:07

Hmm, the PE for the current year is 12 - that's what matters rather than the PE for 2011 imo. Wouldn't call them screaming cheap based on the PE only but with an eps forecast of just around 10% higher than last year looks conservative with Q1 sales up 20% and margins should be improving with them now building on cheaper cost land imo.

But when you take the PE with the NAV and the yield they look screaming cheap to me and it's only a few weeks ago that the market couldn't get enough of these at 750p too, imo.

CR

[jeffian] 29/5/2012 13:57

CR,

"Screamingly cheap..."?

1) PER on 2011 figures is 15.555. Even if the forward PER is 12(?) those are historically high ratings for a housebuilder and

2) The underlying divi yield (i.e. excluding the 'special divis' to be paid every other year) is only 1.78%

I am seriously considering a purchase here, but not on those fundamentals, on the basis that if they do get round to returning all that cash to shareholders, then the rest is for free. IF they get around to returning all that cash to shareholders; hence my earlier posts on the subject.

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2012 11:43

Well the NAV is 608p so they trade below NAV.

PE of 12.

£6.20 being returned to shareholders over 9 years.

So cheap on a NAV basis as that NAV is likely to rise too.

Cheap on a PE basis - a PE of 12 seems good value for a FTSE 250 stock imo.

Screamingly cheap on a yield basis with th fwd yield over 13%.

The only real question is will the brits and foreigners keep buying UK houses and it seems to me that it would take a silver bullet through the heart to stop buyers from buying, based on recent years through a big recession where they have kept buying imo.

CR

[jeffian] 29/5/2012 11:24

Yes, Barlick, the payments are scheduled over the next 9 years -

Payment date Dividend
30 June 2013 75p
30 June 2015 95p
30 June 2017 110p
30 June 2019 110p
30 June 2020 115p
30 June 2021 115p
Total 620p

and I agree with what you and zoolook say, it's just that with so many unknowns, what certainty is there about these payments? With the Euro crisis alone, we don't know what is going to happen next year, never mind what the situation will look like in 2017 or 2021. Will the same management even be in place and would a different management feel bound by this? It's clearly a statement of intent, but any prudent management will adapt to what is before them. Drax was a case in point; they gave a very clear dividend policy which led to them being touted around as a high-yield stock - and promptly changed the policy within 18 months with a consequent collapse of the share price

(Edit: sorry, jonwig, hadn't seen yours when I posted this)

[jonwig] 29/5/2012 11:12

My post #634 addresses the points made about the dividend stream.

[zoolook] 29/5/2012 11:04

>I'm not sure what risk-factor to apply to payments promised 9 years down the line.



I think you have to take a view on the management team. They have been prudent through the ups and downs and not tapped shareholders for cash unlike some of their peers and to be fair have attracted a premium for getting things right. I was surprised at the capital plan. It seemed uncharacteristic of the board to make that sort of commitment but they are best placed in theory to make that call and it is aligned to shareholders interests. I feel less wary now. It gives a goal and direction to the company and its board and it will be a blot on their reputation if they have to give backword.

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2012 08:25

Triple bottom in by the look of the chart, imo.

CR

[barlick] 27/5/2012 15:12

Don't think the payments are to be delivered at the end of nine years but over the course of nine years?

I think that this is a beaten up sector that will react positively to any hint of good news. So I am prepared to sit on my hands & wait.

[jeffian] 26/5/2012 14:44

I'm tempted. The only slight worry I have relates to the extended time-frame and whether they will actually be able to stick to their plan. I was tempted into Drax a few years ago by their then dividend policy - which lasted all of 18 months before they changed it and the promised payments were slashed. I think it was Macmillan who, when asked as Prime Minister what could throw his plans off course replied "Events, dear boy." Well with Greece, the Euro and the possibility of a full-blown banking liquidity crisis, I'm not sure what risk-factor to apply to payments promised 9 years down the line.