Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 22/5/2012 10:55

Don't think so Barlick, looks like a nice little chart reversal starting there.

635p back in divi's over 9 years - why would these tank from here with a yield like that?

And how is that chart contrived?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 18/5/2012 12:57

Thumping great yield of 8%+ per annum?

And bouncing off the trendline?

[barlick] 15/5/2012 17:31

Thinking my long term investment just got longer. Still bought some more though.

Sigh....

[gorse] 14/5/2012 11:03

This company has a very strong balance sheet. Bought a lot of land at low prices in 2008 and 2009 and has run a tight ship. I've bought a couple of tranches this morning. Now I think it's time to go shopping and forget the horrors of the market.

[iomhere] 10/5/2012 09:46

lol! Haven't we all!

[barlick] 08/5/2012 17:56

Not selling IOMhere, albeit I have had to delay the Yacht!!!

[iomhere] 25/4/2012 11:26

PSN is for the long term. If you hold, be content and don't worry about day to day movements.

[jonwig] 19/4/2012 17:32

AGM itself was pretty dull, with no pertinent questions However, I managed to get 20 minutes with the FD (Mike Killoran) before the meeting and quizzed him about the return of capital strategy:

June 2013 75p £226.5m
June 2015 95p £286.9m
June 2017 110p £332.2m
June 2019 110p £332.2m
June 2020 115p £347.3m
June 2021 115p £347.3m
Total 620p £1872.4m

(1) The number of shares in issue will change, in which case the p/sh will be fixed.
(2) No rights issues to come, no debt to be taken on the balance sheet.
(3) No significant money to be spent on acquisition.
(4) Above 9+ years plans based on very conservative, prudent assumptions of the market, margins, costs, etc.
(5) Economic conditions such as 2008, even if they were to recur, would not necessarily impact the strategy, as debt will be absent and much of the land was bought at very low prices in 2008-9 so wouldn't be subject to severe writedowns.
(6) Possibility of upside surprises in which case additional dividends might be announced.
(7) Although margins might be squeezed by cost inflation without house-price inflation, they are driving down costs which should compensate.
(8) They expect the business in 2021 to be larger than today even after distributing virtually all today's market cap.

PSN might not be the cheapest housebuilder (in terms of tangible assets) but the risk profile is very low going forward. It's the one I want to hold and add to.

[figis] 19/4/2012 12:00

Interesting note from Davy stockbroker this morning


FACTS: Persimmon has issued a positive IMS covering the 15 weeks from January 1st to April 19th.

ANALYSIS: The spring selling season has outperformed that of last year with visitor levels up 15% year-on-year (yoy), resulting in the weekly private sales rate up 20% yoy, the forward order book up 9% yoy and cancellation rates of 17% running at historically low levels. Margins continue to accelerate and sales made in recent weeks have seen an increasing level of profitability. The balance sheet remains strong with a £12m net cash position. The group remain positive on the government's "New Buy" scheme (95% LTV lending) but believes that the major mortgage lenders need to enter the market for it to take off. It is also positive on the new planning policy network, Localism, which somewhat forces local authorities to allow development.

DAVY VIEW: This is a strong IMS from our top pick among the housebuilders. Persimmon continues to focus on margin improvement and cash generation. Excluding Berkeley, its land-bank mix and balance sheet are the best in the industry. This has led to better margin growth than that of its peers, a trend that will continue as it invests in new and strategic land. In addition, the group will return £1.9bn to shareholders over the next nine years (equivalent to £6.20 per share versus the current price of £6.34).


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[cockneyrebel] 19/4/2012 10:39

agree jonghnv - I hold BDEV too. GFRD cheap too imo.

ta wynmck - more here:

0700 GMT [Dow Jones] Persimmon's (PSN.LN) growth in sales rate and continued improvement in margins and return on capital employed are driving the recovery at the company says Northland Capital Partners, commenting on the company's interim management statement. Says order book growth of 9% to GBP1.24B on improved margins indicates a comfortable profit position for Persimmon after 15 weeks of '12 trading. Adds, that cash generation is strong. Persimmon is the brokerage's pick of the national house builders despite its strong share price rally since the end of '11. Has at buy with 725p target. Shares closed at 634.50p.

[wynmck] 19/4/2012 08:39

Great statement.
Northland reiterates BUY today.Tgt 725p.

[johnv] 19/4/2012 08:28

If you think these are cheap with NAV similar to price then BDEV must be even cheaper at half NAV. Either way I have both.

[cockneyrebel] 19/4/2012 07:41

Looks good to me, everything pretty much positive or improving across the board.

Is it me or do these look very cheap still?

They are trading at Nav approx, they are growing profits at 20% and they are paying a stonking divi which amounts to circa 10%. Over 10 years you get your investment back in divi's and still own the assets on the co's business plan to pay back 6.20p a share back to holders over 9.5 years.

I'll be amazed if these are.t back to the highs before the next results imo.

All just my opinion, dyor etc.

CR

[theophilus] 19/4/2012 07:12

Looks encouraging.-

-------------------------------------------------------------

Interim Management Statement

Persimmon PLC

19 April 2012

INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT

THURSDAY 19(TH) APRIL 2012

Persimmon Plc ("Persimmon" or the "Group") will hold its Annual General Meeting at 12 noon today at York Racecourse where the Chairman will make the following statement regarding current trading, financial performance and the outlook for the financial year. This statement, which supplements the update given at the time of our 2011 results, covers the period from 1(st) January 2012 to date and constitutes Persimmon's first Interim Management Statement in 2012.

As previously reported, we have experienced a strong start to the current year with the spring selling season continuing to outperform the previous year. Visitor levels to our sites over the first fifteen weeks have been c. 10% higher with cancellation rates running at historically low levels at c. 17%.

We continue to be encouraged by the level of customer enquiries registered on both our Persimmon Homes and Charles Church websites and we have seen a further increase in interest following the Government's launch of the NewBuy 95% loan-to-value mortgage guarantee product in March. We believe this scheme will support increased sales activity for the UK housebuilding industry once all the major mortgage lenders have entered the market, and made NewBuy widely available at attractive rates.

Our weekly private sales rate has continued to run ahead of the same period in the prior year increasing by c. 20% in the first fifteen weeks of the year. Our order book, including legal completions already achieved for the current year, now totals GBP1.24 billion, 9% ahead of the position at the same point last year.

In February 2012, we announced a new long-term strategy to support the development of the Group into a stronger, larger business over the next decade, whilst maximising returns from the capital we employ in the business and providing greater visibility of returns to shareholders. As part of this strategy we plan to return GBP1.9 billion (GBP6.20 per share) of capital to our shareholders over the next nine and a half years.

Margin improvement and cash generation remain central features of this strategy. Further progress has been made on both these measures and our more recent weeks' sales confirm that the trend of increasing profitability is continuing. Our cash position which approaches our peak working capital requirement at the end of March 2012 was c. GBP12 million (March 2011: GBP113 million borrowings). This strong cash position results from total free cash generation pre dividends of c. GBP151 million over the previous twelve months demonstrating continued delivery of healthy cash inflows in line with our long term strategy.

The new National Planning Policy Framework published on 27(th) March 2012 now requires local authorities to plan for the needs of their area with a presumption in favour of sustainable development. We believe this streamlined system should lead to greater speed in the delivery of planning permission once all parties understand the full implications of the Government's new framework. The focus on Localism within the process fits well with our regional teams' long record of local engagement and should assist Persimmon's ability to deliver sites from our c. 16,500 acres of strategic land, as well as helping to deliver schemes we are currently promoting.

Whilst the availability of mortgage credit remains the key constraint on the UK housing market, we remain confident that Persimmon can operate successfully within existing market conditions as we execute our new strategy and build a larger, stronger Persimmon over the next decade.

We will provide a further report on the progress the business has made in our trading update on Tuesday 3(rd) July 2012.

For further information, please
contact:

Mike Farley, Group Chief Executive Simon Rigby
Mike Killoran, Group Finance Director Kevin Smith
Lindsay Noton

Persimmon plc Citigate Dewe Rogerson
Tel: [phone] on the Tel: [phone]
day
Tel: [phone] thereafter

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Th.

[cockneyrebel] 16/4/2012 08:51

TEF ahead of expectations and bullish going forward

CR

[nurdin] 12/4/2012 08:16

Looking frisky this am.

CR..I think you have been looking down the EPS column rather than DPS column.Current year DPS is forcast at 12pish..but jumps to 73p in 2013...(NCP forecasts )

[cockneyrebel] 11/4/2012 15:43

First time these have managed to get above their previous high since the high in Feb - the start of higher highs perhaps.

Divi's won't be spread evenly Nurdin - 43.5p forecast this year, 48.5p next year - 7% this year, 7.7% next year - beats 1% in the bank imo.

CR

[nurdin] 11/4/2012 15:21

Thanks jon..I had a niggling feeling I might be missing something when I plunged in without thinking.Guess we need some more information from the company before we can make judgement...;o)

[jonwig] 11/4/2012 14:34

nurdin - the point really is whether the planned capital return reduces the size of the business, and in a pessimistic scenario, it could.

What I intend to ask at the AGM is whether there are parameters which could either upset the planning, or allow 'normal' dividends on top.

I've bet that they have their planning right.

[nurdin] 11/4/2012 13:41

Yes suggests a yield of atleast 10% over the next 10 years assuming the payment is spread out uniformly over this period.

Cheers CR..had some.

[cockneyrebel] 11/4/2012 12:39

Back down to where they announced they'll be paying out 625p a share to shareholders here too - AGM must get punters excited again imo - bought a load more today.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/4/2012 11:02

Well let's hear them sing about all that cash return - 11 days time :-)

CR