Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 26/12/2023 10:01

“ Find me one analyst who foresees that interest rates will be rising through 2024 rather than declining!”

[adamb1978] 26/12/2023 09:50

kreature

Find me one analyst who foresees that interest rates will be rising through 2024 rather than declining!

Also just need to look at the MoM inflation data from 2023 to see how H1 2024 will evolve

By all means short the housebuilders if you like; will create a nice bounce when those positions get unwound.

Adam

[kreature] 26/12/2023 06:38

We don’t know what the next interest rate decision will be, so they are not ‘ing’. 3 BOE members voted for interest rates to rise at the last meeting, ….how will they feel differently for the next vote ?

[uu4] 24/12/2023 18:25

Where the money held (tax havens, Russia, Israel, Switzerland Channel Islands) will dictate next steps by tax payers to exclude these people from any influence in 21C (close down any access to main economies) , full return plus fines and interest, plus bonuses, plus seizures up to 90% of their assets, WHICH will then allow the tax payer to behave rationally and build the correct clean cheap energy

[adamb1978] 24/12/2023 15:54

"One of the best shorting opportunities"??

Really? In a declining interest rate environment?

[kreature] 24/12/2023 14:43

Merry Christmas to house builders that provide adequate width street paving, 1 gig internet, and transparent pricing on RightMove, and posters here

[sikhthetech] 24/12/2023 14:31

Merry Christmas all genuine posters, even those who turned up in hindsight and claim to be holding.

Have a good one.

[kreature] 24/12/2023 10:57

Tbf prob one of the best shorting opportunities in London for 2024 ? DYOR etc

[netcurtains] 24/12/2023 10:31

This has been a cracking share for me....
Poor old shorters.
Spare a thought for them over Christmas

Cheers Net.

[kreature] 24/12/2023 10:29

Good that they remove and re-list the houses on rightmove. That way paper framed home buyers probably won’t notice how long persimmon have been trying to sell since at least last April

[sikhthetech] 21/12/2023 16:54

Scottish benefits will go up by 6.7% in line with the CPI rate of inflation from September 2023, with the Scottish Child Payment increasing from £25 to £26.70 from April. Addressing MSPs, Ms Robison said funding for NHS boards will rise by £550m, or 4.3%.

"NHS funding

Addressing MSPs, Ms Robison said funding for NHS boards will rise by £550m, or 4.3%. She said the uplift was "above real terms" and would amount to £13.2bn.

"This investment will help the NHS continue to evolve its delivery of services and work to improve waiting times," she added."

[wilsonn] 21/12/2023 16:03

The Scottish government is taxing rich people so they can continue to pay salaries to poorer people.

That improves the supply of people capable of servicing a mortgage which increases the amount of money available to purchase homes.

Taxing rich people and giving money to poorer people reverses the effect of interest rate rises by which the banks 'tax' poorer people and give the money to rich people.

[sikhthetech] 21/12/2023 15:34

My previous post #5080 re Scottish/Welsh govn increasing taxes.

I see no one wanted to answer the question 'how many developments do PSN in Scotland/Wales'.

If you look at the current number, there's around 25% PSN developments in Scotland/Wales, so those countries increasing taxes would impact affordability.




That's on top of the loss of Help to Buy scheme, where around 20% of PSN's FTB used the scheme.

[adamb1978] 21/12/2023 14:49

Mortgage rates continue to come down. You can now get a 5 year fixed at 3.99%. Wil continue to fall further through 2024 as the BoE cuts rates. The chances of a housing market crash are now in the past and the housebuilders look great value IMO

[sikhthetech] 21/12/2023 14:37

UK house prices fall at fastest pace in more than a decade
ONS data shows biggest drop in London and points to impact of high interest rates on property market





Some posters don't like facts and company/sector newsflow. Says a lot.

[cupra kid] 20/12/2023 16:16

Sikh will always pick up on anything remotely negative. I note he hasn't mentioned anything about wages being at record highs or maybe energy bills, from April, set to be at their lowest levels for two years. We can all post things to suit a narrative but if you do your own research you'll know that the PSN share price is stillvery much undervalued.

[time 2 retire] 20/12/2023 14:05

Sikh
You're sounding very desperate.

[tialouise] 20/12/2023 13:26

Nooooo , you can't still be short. Lol

[sikhthetech] 20/12/2023 12:59

There are many factors which impact the housing market and HBs. It's not just about interest rates.

Affordability is still a major problem.


The Scottish and Welsh governments are increasing taxes soon. Interest rates are set centrally, whereas taxes are by devolved governments. These increases in taxes now will impact borrowers sooner and will negate any benefit from small reductions in interest rates, which won't happen for many months.

What % of home do PSN build in Scotland/Wales?



Scottish government increasing taxes. Introducing new tax bands to pay more towards NHS. Affordability in Scotland getting worse.

I'd expect HBs building in Scotland to be impacted.


Scottish Budget: Higher earners to pay more income tax

[adamb1978] 20/12/2023 10:53

Yes, I think interest rates will end 2024 lower than a lot of people think, and markets starting to realise that this morning.

Very good for housebuilders, equities, hard-asset inv trusts and lots of other asset classes too!

[onehanded] 20/12/2023 07:20

Inflation falls and Looks like interest rates have peaked. Mortgage rates always looks forward and will fall. £15 will be breached soon and then £18.50 next. Hope anyone short Will be closing soon. So much upside…

[sikhthetech] 17/12/2023 17:09

Halifax forecasts avg house prices to fall between 2% and 4% in 2024.


UK house prices forecast to fall by up to 4% in 2024

High rates hit mortgage affordability and sales completions but Halifax expects part recovery in market

"UK house prices will fall by up to 4% next year as high interest rates continue to affect mortgage affordability and sales completions, according to Halifax.

Britain’s biggest mortgage lender said the price of an average UK property would fall by between 2% and 4% but it expected a part-recovery in the market as interest and mortgage rates eased next year.

“Overall, with the combination of cost of living pressures and interest rate levels that are still much higher than even two years ago, we will likely see continued mild downward pressure on house prices,” said Kim Kinnaird, the director of Halifax Mortgages."

[sikhthetech] 17/12/2023 17:06

The BoE have said that base rates won't be cut for a while. Unlike the Fed, the BoE haven't indicated how many cuts they expect to make in 2024.

The expectation of base rate cuts are already in the public domain.