Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[1crackupboom] 05/5/2020 15:01

Just did mortgage application with tsb. 6 months ago they offered me 100k. Now 65k28k job in safe area280k house no mortgage pre covidNo debts. No dependants. No outgoings.Looking to borrow about 100k to move up ladder. Perfect credit history.House price crash well and truly on. Banks will be the cause. 

[1crackupboom] 04/5/2020 23:17

Lol. Yeah and they have higher interest rates and dont get involved with HTB

[gooner1886] 04/5/2020 22:47

Thats only halifax there are 100s of brokersAround daft lad

[1crackupboom] 04/5/2020 22:43

Most of the smaller houses bought with 5pc deposit,HTB and 75pc mortgage. All these people cannot continue to buy. Game Over

[1crackupboom] 04/5/2020 22:42

Just been on Halifax mortgage calculator, looks like max LTV is 85%. That's a £37500 deposit for your average house, an increase of over £25000 when 95% before lockdown.If this is not a temporary arrangement, we have a 10% house price fall baked in this year.Majority of FTBs are now out of the game too, at a time where they have become the majority of players.This really is the perfect storm.

[cupra kid] 04/5/2020 16:39

Unfortunately I've just seen a post of yours on the Bellway board asking who's buying the shares as they're only worth 10p. That alone is a very valid reason to ignore you I think.

[1crackupboom] 04/5/2020 16:34

Its all lies. Big media thing about everyone going tobcomplete. 90pc happy etc. Just to allow a few spivs to get out of the market. When lockdown ends there will be a few transactions 5pc down that were started before covid. The next wave will be 15pc-20pc down. These building companies need to drop 50pc lower from here to represent value. Will be a 10pc drop one day this week. The profits will simply not materialise.

[cupra kid] 04/5/2020 16:08

I'm not sure where you're getting your info from but as much as there will be some cancellations (there always is) there are still (somewhat surprisingly) lots of enquires to purchase. I work across a wide range of house builders and the story is reasonably the same across them all........at the moment. Your information may possibly be regional or very localised?

[1crackupboom] 04/5/2020 08:53

Doubt it. Dead cat bounce. Some of those hooked in already will complete. Everyone else wants a discount inc new customers

[robertball] 04/5/2020 08:37

Already priced in?

[1crackupboom] 01/5/2020 14:55

Cancellations are rife. People pulling out. Banks pulling some mortgages. Some people asking for 20pc discount or no deal.

[scobak] 30/4/2020 08:55

Will be ripened and ready for eating in 18 months time. The boat is just gong down with the tide but most of the passengers seem unaware.

[garycook] 30/4/2020 01:36

gcd1,It looks like you missed the boat then,for your Recovery P/F !!!

[gcd1] 29/4/2020 22:03

scobak, I hope so as I have been monitoring these since 1600pence for my Recovery Portfolio but not purchased yet.

As always DYOR

[scobak] 29/4/2020 20:13

Unfortunately I find myself disagreeing on a longer term basis. I see fewer buyers and at lower prices. lower volumes throughout the industry. PSN will fare better than other builders but will still suffer.
I only see the market price of these in a downwards light.

[dalep716] 24/4/2020 11:22

I wonder to what extent those currently suffering unemployment were ever potential house purchasers. All those reservations, if they hold, seem to suggest not too much of a problem. Fingers crossed.

[cupra kid] 23/4/2020 15:57

Office staff recommencing duties week Monday

[cupra kid] 20/4/2020 15:30

Owenski I don't think you can say housing/supply is irrelevant in a recession. The social housing aspect alone can't just stop. Agree that the sector have some things to consider going forward though

[cupra kid] 20/4/2020 12:39

I'm hearing today that Persimmon will pay all their furloughed staff themselves oppose to claiming from the government. Morally correct in the scheme of things if you ask me.I'm also hearing that several house builders have earmarked 4th May as a possible return date but I'm guessing this will be a gradual affair for at least a month or two.

[adamb1978] 19/4/2020 11:36

I don't see any changes in the way the industry operates at all - we're still a densely populated country and the government will still want houses to be built. There will also be the nonsense stories about how we're not building enough houses.

Personally I dont see it being the first time to buy cyclicals at the moment given that when we're out of lockdown and people start talking more about the economy rather than the virus, the damage will become clearer and that will hit housebuilders, staffing cos, car dealerships etc. There will be very good money to be made from those sectors, and from well-run companies likes PSN, but I dont see the entry point as attractive at the moment

[sogoesit] 19/4/2020 11:06

Yes, some pols talking about waiting for a vaccine before economic activity returns.
In such a case the economy may well be all but destroyed so all bets are off.
Also housebuilding, in particular, is under government's thumb and, since I don't like government's (non)-strategy I have now lost confidence.
So am selling above my capital break-even having taken the ride on dividends.
Without dividends this is no longer "fit for purpose" for me.
Good luck!

[cupra kid] 17/4/2020 09:30

Forgot to say that I would hope we have some sort of vaccine within 12 months too.

[cupra kid] 17/4/2020 09:27

Davius,I agree in part but we're already seeing construction return in the likes of Spain where arguably they've had a worse situation than us. Houses will still need to be built and essentially it should be about how the house builders go about building in the safest way possible. I personally don't see the likes of 10 trades in a plot happening anymore. The biggest potential problem is the demand for the product. With unemployment set to rise there will be the inevitable drop in sales so maybe it's time to build more social housing where the sale is pretty much guaranteed.