Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[breaktwister] 05/7/2017 09:14

My trade of the year. Cashed in my leveraged bets this morning as planned but very happy to hold in my SIPP.

[the_equaliser] 05/7/2017 07:06

Another strong update

The Group's trading performance in the first half of the year has been excellent. We have increased legal completion volumes by 8% to 7,794 new homes (2016: 7,238). The 556 increase in new homes sold demonstrates the Group's drive to meet market demand in all its regional markets across the UK. Our average selling price improved by 3.5% to c. £213,000 (2016: £205,762). Revenue grew by 12% to reach £1.66bn (2016: £1.49bn).



We have continued to experience good levels of customer demand since the Group's AGM trading update on 27 April 2017, with the market taking the snap UK General Election in its stride. Consumer confidence remains resilient and compelling mortgage rates continue to offer good support to new home buyers. Group sales through May and June were healthy, leaving our weekly private sales rate per site for the first half c. 7% ahead of last year at 0.80 (2016: 0.75).



We expect the Group's strong trading through the first half of the year, including the contribution from 95 new sales outlets opened in the period, will lead to further good progress in our operating margin. We anticipate that the Group's operating margin in the first half of 2017 will comfortably exceed the 25.7% delivered in the second half of the prior year.



The Group has strong momentum moving into the second half of the year, with total forward sales value at 30 June 2017 of £1.60bn, 18% higher than last year (2016: £1.36bn) and a network of 375 active outlets. In addition, sales through the second half of 2017 will be supported by opening a further c. 100 new sales outlets despite the frustration of continued delays to site starts due to planning inefficiencies. We are developing all our sites for which we have secured detailed residential planning consent.



The Group has remained active in the land market with 47 new land deals for c. 9,300 new homes that will provide high quality returns in future periods. We have pulled through c. 3,000 plots from our strategic land portfolio within this total, representing 38% of our first half land consumption. Our land spend totalled c. £370m (2016: £305m).



A key feature of the Group's strategy is our commitment to return surplus capital to shareholders over the long term. On 27 February 2017 the Board announced an additional payment under the Group's Capital Return Plan ("the Plan") of 25p per share (or £77m) which was paid to shareholders on 31 March 2017. This raised the total value of the Plan to c. £2.85billion, or £9.25 per share, to be returned to shareholders by the end of 2021. This represents an increase of 49% over the original value of the Plan at launch in 2012. The scheduled instalment of 110p per share (or £339m) under the Plan was paid on 3 July 2017.



At 30 June the Group held £1,120m of cash (2016: £462m) prior to payment of the scheduled Capital Return of £339m on 3 July 2017.

[the_equaliser] 04/7/2017 09:32

Slighty below par for CPI,
But still shows strength in constructions
09:30 GBP Construction PMI (Jun) 54.8 55.0 56.0

[the_equaliser] 29/6/2017 16:56

Agreed !!!!

[breaktwister] 29/6/2017 14:41

Strange price behaviour given the very strong mortgage lending figures out earlier. Buying on this dip into trading update next week.

[the_equaliser] 29/6/2017 09:39

Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast prev
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (May) 65.20K 64.00K 65.05K
09:30 GBP Mortgage Lending (May) 3.50B 2.60B 2.80B

[the_equaliser] 29/6/2017 06:52

If there were no shortages of houses by >200k
And
If i wasnt seeing PSN/Bdev selling houses on land(my previous employment)
And
Gouverment saying 2 billion spend + helping first timer buyers + low int rate
I would say the same

[rhomboid] 28/6/2017 18:18

I must admit I've held PSN before & I'd happily buy it again if I wanted exposure to the UK housing market..so thanks for keeping the thread alive as each time I click on it I review my stance ..which so far is to sit on the sidelines 🙂

[the_equaliser] 28/6/2017 16:34

My pleasure sir

agreed the company is selling itself
does not need us
:)

[effortless cool] 28/6/2017 13:03

I agree. I think they are a great company delivering consistently, hence no one wants to discuss them on ADVFN, so thanks for keeping the thread alive.

[the_equaliser] 28/6/2017 10:50

Effortless Cool

lols,
No ramping sir,
Just posting stuff int domain

Psn just delivering what they say,
And
based on shortages on property, i cannot see how they will / can go wrong
and
They building houses on land where i use to work and selling

Dyor / imo
:)

[effortless cool] 28/6/2017 09:49

The_Equaliser,

It's lonely work, ramping Persimmon, but you're doing a great job.

[the_equaliser] 28/6/2017 09:30

Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual ForecaPrevious
07:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jun) 1.1% 0.1% -0.2%
07:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% 1.9% 2.1%

[the_equaliser] 26/6/2017 09:45

26 Jun Jefferies... 2,316.00 Hold

[the_equaliser] 26/6/2017 09:40

July 5th trading udate,
If aything like other builders,
I expect good/strong trading

imo / dyor

[festario] 19/6/2017 12:08

The Equaliser, returning £9.24 per share.... over what period? To save me looking at the yield forecasts.I know little about PERS, other than I bought a new house off them.

[the_equaliser] 19/6/2017 11:02

JUst a reminder

Persimmon said its operational performance continues to be excellent, the group delivering higher volumes of new homes in local communities across all its regional markets, supported by the resilience of the UK economy.

"The Board remains confident of the future prospects of the Group," it said in a statement.

Total forward sales revenue, including legal completions taken to date in 2017, was currently £2.56bn, about 11% higher than last year.

"As expected, despite the particularly strong comparatives from the first quarter of last year, our weekly private sales rate per site since reporting our 2016 Final Results on 27 February 2017 is 12% ahead of last year, resulting in a sales rate which is now 4% ahead for the year to date."

Persimmon said it had 8928 new homes sold forward into the private ownership market with an average selling price of about £229,500, up 4.1% on the year.

"Despite the continued difficulties encountered with planning delays, we have opened 67 of the 90 new sites planned for the first half of the year," it said.

These new sales outlets opened across the UK continue to support the company's margin progression, due to the associated lower land cost recoveries, which has been aided further by some modest price improvement through the Spring period so far.

"The Group is currently developing 382 active sales outlets across the UK and is building new homes on all sites that have an implementable detailed planning consent," it said.

"During the period we continued to identify good opportunities to acquire new land to support the future growth of the business. "

The successful trading performance of Persimmon had enabled directors to lift the value of the original Capital Return Plan by 49%, or about £937m. The total value of the plan was now about £2.85bn, or £9.25 a share.

[acamas] 15/6/2017 18:50

simso,

The overshoot today is down to the market imo. So I see it as Special Divi 110p remainder of todays fall is the daily mark down much of my portfolio today is red. shares such as BDEV, BKG, BWY CRST and GFRD all building heavyweights being heavily red.

Again right or wrong I saw PSN as a buying opportunity today and doubled my holding. Lets hope I have called it correctly

[simso] 15/6/2017 18:12

Acamas, of course we would all agree that on ex-div date, you would expect the price to go down by that amount. The point I am making, endorsing what owenga says above, is that the price often overshoots and falls more than the dividend value. It seems illogical, yet does often seem to happen

[acamas] 15/6/2017 16:51

simso,

I have always looked upon special divis as giving away part of the company because the BOD can find little better to do with the cash at this time. So if you take money out of the business then over all business is worth less and the share price adjusts accordingly. I need convincing size of the business has much to do with it. Special Divis short term means one thing company shrinkage. Not everybody will agree with me but that is my take on it

[simso] 15/6/2017 16:38

owenga, I have been caught by this phenomenon of the share price falling disproportionately on ex div day several times recently...but its usually on smaller caps. It is completely illogical, but really does seem to happen too often for it to a coincidence. I remember reading something about it in the Naked Trader's book..speculating that perhaps a few stop losses are inadvertently triggered, or a few momentum traders sell because the price is lower, without even stopping to consider the ex div effect. I could just about believe the phenomenon for a small cap, but it is hard to believe for a larger business like PSN. I suspect the fall is half down to ex div and half general sell off.

[davius] 15/6/2017 11:37

110p special dividend today, and more to come, they remain cash heavy. Persimmon by far and away my best investment this year.

[owenga] 15/6/2017 11:37

The dividend is 110p isn't it. share price dropped significantly more than that.

Always happens. Should probably sell day before it goes ex div and then buy back next day.

[the_equaliser] 15/6/2017 11:02

I know old, didnt know if posted
31 May Deutsche Bank 2,340.00 Hold

[pollysmate] 15/6/2017 09:33

Went ex dividend