Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 12/12/2023 09:21

storming ahead today and ATH I think !

[arja] 11/12/2023 07:44

thanks folks and some very interesting comments . certainly worth trading on a bullish day in market with it;s nice looking chart and NO SD to pay of course . market will start today a bit off the futures are saying.

[jellypbean] 10/12/2023 12:15

Like other ITs, whether or not the benefit of the debt is included in the valuation depends on whether it is recorded in the NAV at par or fair.


I don't know which it is here, and it's not going to affect my decision to hold, so I'll not be bothering to look it up.

[donald pond] 10/12/2023 07:12

From the last AT there seems to be about $2.3bn of outstanding bonds paying between 1.35 and 4.95%. Some go out to 2039.

[riskvsreward] 09/12/2023 20:09

Very true WC104. It is very beneficial to use those long term low cost debts to buy back their shares at such huge discount. That is a big differentiator of this trust from all the rest.

[williamcooper104] 09/12/2023 19:56

The other thing the trust has IIRC is long dated cheap fixed rate debt with no mark to market covenants That's an asset that won't be in the NAV

[williamcooper104] 09/12/2023 19:54

Yep but you could invest privately in a HF and pay the same fees and buy in at NAV The relevant question is is the performance worth the fee levelClearly it is So not a problem

[donald pond] 09/12/2023 19:31

There aren't really unquoted investments. There's Freddie and Fannie, the SPAC that never happens and the occasional hedges, but really almost all the PF is very liquid

[arja] 09/12/2023 19:27

saw this but I will buy a few if it breaks through 3270 next week .


Massive discount
As is usual with hedge funds, there are charges involved, with an annual investment fee of 1.5% and a performance fee of 16%.

This high fee structure could be a reason why the fund trades at a whopping 36% discount to its net asset value (NAV). Additionally, the complex financial instruments involved are seen as high-risk by some, as is the portfolio’s extreme concentration.

These are all issues for investors to consider

[arja] 09/12/2023 19:05

lovely looking chart and a NOR situation I think . I always find the massive discount to NAV offputting and obviously it can not be trusted and maybe still a lot of unquoted investments hard to value ?

[jellypbean] 02/12/2023 21:40

Yen & VIX are cheap.

[donald pond] 01/12/2023 08:58

The big concern is that he says rates need to be cut to avoid a recession. The pf here is very US consumer facing. I got the feeling lowes is on the way out but Chipotle and the Restaurant brands look highly valued in a recession scenario

[nexusltd] 30/11/2023 16:28

Would that not be the consensus trade; hence not enough upside v. downside differential?

[riverman77] 30/11/2023 15:04

Ackman now of the view that rates will need to be cut. Presumably he's opened some sort of position to express this view, but you never really know with PSH.

[rickyl1] 23/11/2023 17:32

Yes ATH and still discount of 34%+

[bmel] 23/11/2023 17:09

se - an all time high?

[rambutan2] 19/11/2023 21:38

Yes, investor call quite upbeat, with Lowes the only holding which didn't sound quite so convincing. Google a big winner. Previous hedge was exited a bit late, having come down from $500m profit to $300m at exit. HHH stake crept up to 36%. Fannie/Freddie up big from lows due to big seller cleared. High hopes for SPARC nabbing a good deal, Bill receiving calls from PE.

From top to bottom port order, currently:
Universal Music (UMG)
Alphabet (GOOG)
Chipotle (CMG)
Hilton (HLT)
Restaurant Brands (QSR)
Lowes (LOW)
Canadian Pacific (CPKC)
Howard Hughes (HHH)
Fannie/Freddie
New hedges
SPARC

[smidge21] 18/11/2023 22:06

Probably mid-curve Eurodollar calls

[rickyl1] 18/11/2023 12:07

Seems like there's a new hedge on from what I understood of the investor call. Not sure what instruments they're using but it sounds like a bet on short duration bond rates dropping.Also nearly doubled Google stake to $1.8b which I'm happy with. I'm still unconvinced by Lowes and Bill sounded the same when commenting on them.

[bagpuss67] 06/11/2023 07:38

Thanks both. I was thinking more along the equity asset % comparison. Fair points

[jellypbean] 05/11/2023 22:43

Bagpuss67. Because PSH always had an eye on what events might cause the value of the companies they hold to fall, and have been pretty adept at finding assymetric hedges that pay out big when this happens. If you read the Ruffer and PSH reports they are often worrying about the same thing. I think Ruffer has ditched it's protection from rising rates a bit too early (in hindsight), and has suffered from holding long duration linkers to protect it from what it thinks will come next.

I think they are both backing the Yen, for example.

[srichardson8] 05/11/2023 22:00

Much more like Ruffer in that he is I think trying not to lose money as a priority. Actually Ruffer funds haven't been doing so well (I understand) as their put options are more effective when there are big market moves rather than the slow drip drip down we have seen in longer bonds since QE waved goodbye and we welcomed attempts at QT and higher prices aka inflation. But it has certainly been much more defensive than most OEICS and ITs. Baillie Gifford is the complete opposite pretty much across its funds but especially SMT which targets long-term hyper growth. Their philosophy, very crudely, is that portfoios/equity markets are driven by a few highly successful companies over long periods of time. They are trying to find these companies.

[bagpuss67] 05/11/2023 20:10

Eh? Why do you say that?

[jellypbean] 05/11/2023 15:27

I view it as rather more like Ruffer than SMT, or perhaps a cross between the two.