Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 16/9/2022 10:19

I suspect the relative price strength here reflects the swaption: Bills been calling for much higher interest rates and it looks like he's called it perfectly

[rickyl1] 13/9/2022 13:45

https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/james-elbaor-is-investing-in-bill?r=185xp6&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=emailAn interesting interview with transcript

[apple53] 25/8/2022 11:43

His letter is impressive communication.
I think it's a bit naughty that he wrote (some of) Anne Farlow's letter (evidence is that the word 'inure' is misused identically in both letters).

Despite the share price recovery, I note that the discount is still at the high end of its range. It may be lower than a lot of the PE ITs, but PSH is not a PE trust (ignoring the logic of whether PE trusts should trade at bigger or smaller discounts than non-PE trusts), and it is almost comparable with the range of US closed end trusts which, on a guesstimate based on his figures, trade at a median/mean discount of high single digits.

It would be good to hear a quantification of the benefit to investors of NOT being a a listed US investment company.

At what discount would I sell? Hopefully less than 15%, but if this closes to 20% and I can get PIN at a 40% discount or OSB at <£4 then maybe I would sell.

[riskvsreward] 24/8/2022 16:24

While rating Bill highly and invested here heavily, I am nonetheless amazed that he and his team missed out completely on the macro of the energy sector in such obvious geopolitical and economical environment. Even Buffet has invested heavily in this sector against his long held view of not investing in cyclical and capital intensive industries.

[topvest] 23/8/2022 08:10

Given the performance record and the fact that this is the 3rd largest closed-end vehicle in the world.... with a Buffett style manager the discount is unwarranted.

[donald pond] 23/8/2022 06:06

A very good read. The swaption added 10% in H1. Stock selection was worse that a tracker from what I see. I'd personally prefer a tracker with the stardust

[rambutan2] 23/8/2022 03:16

Interims out:

[lozzer69] 03/8/2022 12:45

FWIW Questor column in Telegraph have a bullish write on PSH. They call it - A Buffett-like share portfolio with a little hedge fund brilliance sprinkled on top.

[williamcooper104] 27/7/2022 01:32

That's good Ackman treating the Fed as an activist target company is quite funny Suggests we've got more short treasury exposure

[thruxie] 27/7/2022 00:33

Chipotle up 8%+ in after hours trading. Free cash flow doubled, cracking results.

[riverman77] 13/7/2022 16:07

Yes the Netflix purchase was a poor trade no question - I was actually thinking of shorting Netflix around the time he added as seemed to be facing such obvious headwinds. At least he quickly accepted he'd got it wrong and moved on. Many fund managers would have stubbornly doubled down.

[nexusltd] 13/7/2022 15:25

AFAIK PSH is still sitting on the April 21st proceeds of the liquidation of 3.1 million shares of Netflix c. 1.1bn-400mn = USD700mn.

Masterful inactivity in these markets?

I'm also curious to understand as to why Ackman & team have apparently not put in place in any downside protection for PSH's portfolio.

[riverman77] 13/7/2022 14:13

Actually reflects well on Ackman - he refused to do a deal just for the sake of it (and must have been under a lot of pressure to get one done) when valuations clearly got out of hand during the post Covid bubble. Disciplined approach probably saved investors a lot of money.

[nexusltd] 12/7/2022 20:12

@thruxie PSH '21 AR only shows:

"Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd.
Committed Forward Purchase Units(3) (5,923,858)"

Insignificant.

I think that if the SPAC had worked out, PSH would have liquidated holdings to fund the mooted USD1bn-3bn.

[thruxie] 12/7/2022 20:00

Presumably this will free up a ton of cash which was tied up in PSH's commitment to the SPAC which can now be used and invested into the market?

[nexusltd] 12/7/2022 19:22

Bill Ackman liquidates Pershing Square Tontine Holdings

[pol123] 17/6/2022 23:41

Ive picked up 15k PSH over the last week or so and happy to hold at the current discount to NAV. Its outrageously cheap. The 2022 2 & 10 Yr swaption must also be worth $1B+ by now

[thruxie] 13/6/2022 17:53

I use short-ish duration $ bonds, brick and mortar and gold. But to be honest there aren't many safe havens from inflation. Best investment over the past 6 months for me have been old fashioned energy, mining and tobacco stocks bought for dividend income not expecting capital appreciation.

[rickyl1] 13/6/2022 14:19

That's 25% of my invested money, I have a large cash pile.

[rickyl1] 13/6/2022 14:01

I'm about 25% and increasing for all the reasons you mentioned.

[thruxie] 13/6/2022 13:29

With buy backs ongoing, discount widening and an interest rate hedge this ones a no-brainer core holding for me.

Adding regular top ups and now back up to being about 20% of my portfolio.

I'm also willing to bet Bill also has a cash pile ready to buy up some beaten down bargains.

[rickyl1] 08/6/2022 22:49

Discount widened to 34% so a rise of over 50% required to reach nav, food for thought.

[donald pond] 23/5/2022 08:37

In the end we are mainly here for the asymmetric bets rather than the exposure to the US consumer. Would be good to get more info on that. I can't believe Bills plan is to buy and hold through a bear market

[thruxie] 11/5/2022 17:57

The market seemed to like the news today up 4.66% on a flat S&P. I'm also anticipating good news on the interest rate hedges at the next investor call.

[rickyl1] 11/5/2022 09:48

Share buyback announced. To a maximum of the greater of $100m or 10m shares.