Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[riskvsreward] 26/7/2024 15:27

They had a problem with nflx, a business based on very similar business model as Umg, owning contents and getting subscription fees. They exited nflx with heavy loss, although by hindsight a bit too hastily. So it is surprising that they are so overweight on Umg. Obviously they must have very high conviction, unfortunately market don’t agree with them and umg has not worked out to support their convictions during the past few years.

[affemoose] 26/7/2024 15:04

glaswiain indeed! It could have been far better if he'd just concentrated on his day job.

I think Ryan Israel is the brains in this org these days tbh, Bill's off out and about being rich.

A large part of the returns at PSH are care of the Interest rate bet during covid, We need another one of them!

[jellypbean] 26/7/2024 11:48

His social media activity has changed markedly over the past 12 months. It's quite a different approach he seems to be taking in order to boost his profile.

Might work, might not. It's just different and warrants noting as such. IMO.

Personally I don't like it.

[rickyl1] 26/7/2024 09:34

Must be some big announcements to make very shortly. PSH had 2.44b in cash and equivalents on July 15th leading up to $psus launch and has 2 new full positions not yet disclosed. I wonder if that cash is for a position in psus and/or more new positions to match the new fund ? Whatever the outcome there has obviously been a big shake up of the portfolio.

[glawsiain] 26/7/2024 09:25

The 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual NAV net returns for PSH were 26.7%, 31.2%, and 13.6%.

Imagine the figures if he wasn't on social media all the time, eh Affemoose?

[foetus in your brain] 26/7/2024 08:27

It may be a big wake up call for Bill. It seems the market isn't convinced. It is bizarre that PSH trades on a bigger discount than the dozens of underperforming ITs, but a hyperactive twitter account doesn't seem to be the remedy

[williamcooper104] 26/7/2024 07:34

PIMCOs funds often traded at huge premiums because of the other Bill - Bill Gross - but Gross only ever commented on markets/macro

[affemoose] 26/7/2024 07:06

Well well well...



"Bill Ackman slashes fundraising target for US fund IPO by as much as 90%"

There are also some articles that seem to suggest that this IPO will be 'very soon' - i've even seen 'next week' cited somewhere.

It looks like Ackmans had a wake-up call - the Hubris has caught up with him, folk are fed up with his relentless self promotion on all topics that he's not paid to care about, his off-piste comms are not welcomed by the Lawyers at PSUS, they've distanced themselves from his appeal to potential investors to hurry up and commit, etc etc. Yesterday's collapse in UMG must have been the icing on the cake.

Keep an eye on this - potential investors are stating that the discount is a worry, and they see no reason why he would be any different to any other Closed End fund and they can't see why it would trade at a premium. (Yes Bill - it's not just London that suffers discounts).

I for one would welcome Ackman waking up and doing what he's paid to do rather than trying to be a Social Media star. Focus on making us money man! Your views on the Presdiency, Israel, University staffing etc are your own and should not take primacy.

Popcorn is at the ready

[jellypbean] 25/7/2024 18:04

I got to 27.5%+, because, as well as its 25% direct holding, PSH also holds 2.5% indirectly, through PSH VII Master LP.

See p115 & 116 of the 2023 Annual Report.

[riverman77] 25/7/2024 17:18

Certainly not good PR for the new fund he's about to launch. One of the rationales for investing here is that his new US fund makes a big splash and trades at a premium - which in turn should help drag PSH out of its long term discount. Might need to rethink things after this, but holding on for the moment.

[jdh1602] 25/7/2024 16:55

Can just see Ackman choking on his morning coffee :-)) Too bad, I was choking on mine, with a 7.5% portfolio position in PSH.

[jdh1602] 25/7/2024 16:48

According to a City Wire article today, UMG is about a 26% allocation in PSH's portfolio, which other posters above have more or less calculated the same. I'm also quite surprised any portfolio manager would allow a holding of such a size, but I suppose it depends how much money the fund already made up to now with this holdings in recent years - but wasn't it worth a top-slice?! The market trips up even the smartest people!

[williamcooper104] 25/7/2024 15:36

https://x.com/ulyssescapital/status/1816405889152147532

[affemoose] 25/7/2024 14:54

Alphapet is down about 5% in the last week. Their results were good tbh but the market got scared at how much AI costs - capital costs are huge for not a lot of revenue atm. These things take time and we shall see as the next 12-18 months flows by. I 100% guarantee you that the Google Sales teams are getting a very strong message atm - 'Sell Gemini AI' - wouldn't want to be in their shoes.

(been in similar footwear in the past and it's not a nice place to be - market is not there, unrealistic demands from Corporate, Customer base not ready, interested but not ready, PIP's abounding etc etc - yuk, glad i'm out)

The UMG results were very similar to a Tech Growth business tbh - which is what the market is treating it like. If you dissapoint re: growth at all - you get punished. Hard. Again... time will tell. Not sure what the TikTok dispute is about or what difference it made to the bottom line but don't forget - this is a profitable business but trading a bit high imho. Some of my PSH 'profit' has gone, but these corrections do happen. Though... if the nukbers above are correct I am not 100% comfy with UMG being 25%+ of the portfolio, i'd rather 10% imho - maybe time for a rebalance?

[jellypbean] 25/7/2024 11:51

Google down 5% yesterday. Others that I looked at 1-2% down.

Given that I'm commenting, should disclose I sold out at just over 4.2 because of the Twitter noise (and to some extent the oversize UMG holding). Keeping an eye on it incase I want to get back in at some point, but I am generally favouring non US & small caps at the moment.

Oh, and just because I avoided this particular fall in no way means I know what I'm talking about (more of a 'note to self' than anything else).

[wassapper] 25/7/2024 11:34

Well this gave me an unexpected entry point. On my watchlist for ages. Jus a few to start

[apple53] 25/7/2024 11:21

Thank you jellybean. Was wondering if this was a chance to get back in. With US volatility I now need to check if any of other big holdings were hit hard yesterday or pre-market today.
If not, then the discount has obviously expanded by at least a couple of %, and may be closer to 25% than the recent 20% (but less than the 30% of not long ago).

[jellypbean] 25/7/2024 11:12

OK. From 2023 annual report (311223), UMG was 27.5% of PSH net assets (including 2.5% held through a subsidiary).

Since then. Net assets have increased from 12Bn to 12.6Bn (5%), and UMG share price had (b4 today) increased from 25.33 to 28.38 (12%).

So that makes UMG c.29.5% of PSH NAV b4 todays fall, by my reckoning.

[jdh1602] 25/7/2024 10:45

gowkirk, PSH holds a large chunk of UMG, and UMG just dropped 28% due to a large unexpected drop in their revenues. Hence, PSH has been hit too! That's always the risk of a high-conviction portfolio of fewer stocks. But we're not sure exactly How much of UMG is held in PSH...see above.

[gowkirk] 25/7/2024 10:29

What happened today?

[jellypbean] 25/7/2024 10:16

So. yesterday's UMG market cap looks to have been 56.4Bn USD.

As of 311023 Ackman held 10.26% of UMG

Latest NAV of PSH was 12.6Bn

What I can't recall is what proportion of Ackmans's holding in UMG was outwith PSH.

[jellypbean] 25/7/2024 09:39

Last time I looked UMG was v.25% of PSH total assets, which would make it a bit higher than that as a proporyion of NAV.

[rickyl1] 25/7/2024 09:38

I think it's high teens like 18% hence the big drop here. Unless he's sold some recently.

[riverman77] 25/7/2024 09:22

Do we know how much of the PSH portfolio held in UMG? Perhaps not good publicity for the imminent US listing if their biggest holding down 30%.

[rickyl1] 25/7/2024 09:12

Hopefully that's an over reaction.