Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 26/2/2021 14:27

large discount to NAV is not helping and maybe market does not trust it as it has unquoted investments

[arja] 26/2/2021 14:26

surprising it has sunk further as market rallying in last few hours . the

[thruxie] 26/2/2021 12:18

Kinbasket - thanks, food for thought. A saving grace for PSH is that it's closed end, in liquid stocks and has a hedge in place. Personally I wouldn't touch ARK with a bargepole however last time I checked I'm 21.7% PSH. I'm also concerned generally about market valuations ATM so I've gradually gone from 100% stocks to 60% now. On successful completion of the SPAC I might trim PSH back but I reckon there's still some covid recovery play before the market completely tanks....but who knows!

[rickyl1] 26/2/2021 12:17

I'm not worried in the slightest.

[thruxie] 26/2/2021 10:21

So it would seem PSTH has nearly finalised it's acquisition. Why else would there be talk of a PSTH2 unless there are several good targets that have been identified.

[livingstone20] 26/2/2021 10:15

Sadly spend evening reviewing PSH and Tontine. 1)Feb shareholder call showed Tontine as contributing 13% of the $4bn gains ins 2020 & August shareholder letter showed that it is marked to market with some details - estimate value in portfolio today is about 5% and $500m, which is pretty good on $65m warrant investment. 2)Shareholder call stated ‘very unlikely’ to require more than $5bn (which includes only min $1bn from PSH) 3) Warrants give PSH right to buy 1.5-2% of target at just 20% premium to IPO price 4) Tontine I seems close, Bill described last week as ‘big’ and last night tweeted 3 times in manner that looks to be trying to support PSTH price post imminent announcement 5)Tontine II legal formed and Bill confirmed Tontine I long holders would get priority - which should held limit ‘sell on the deal’ exodus 6) A right to buy 2% at IPO +20% could be worth nothing at worst, but at best really attractive. eg. If took $5bn of a $50bn Stripe and it doubled PSH would gain $2bn of NAV with limited downside when adding the return on commitment. 7) Much of the SPAC risk is to those buying them rather than selling them. If the sold Tontine structure is the winner it looks then deal flow of SPACs could be a great enhancer if the core PSH recovery portfolio returns. All in all I think there is a decent chance of a 10-20% NAV increase in PSH in next 2 months as this all becomes more visible to market. As ever welcome more views.

[rickyl1] 26/2/2021 07:30

Bill Ackman has confirmed on Twitter that holders of PSTH will be entitled to first option of shares in PSTH2 at starting price and that PSTH2 will only begin after the conclusion of PSTH. That sounds promising.

[kinbasket] 25/2/2021 19:04

Last report i saw had wts at $83 I think. likewise I´m not sure how they get there, I haven´t tried to model it yet. If PSH go in at $3bn and the Newco trades at a 25% premium (Less than the current PSTH premium) that´s a $750m mark to market gain on day one. I´m not really in PSH for the SPAC, although it´s a bonus if it works. I like the rest of the portfolio in a post Covid rebound. They are quality big names in middle income spending. When people start going out, Burger King, Starbucks, Tim Hortons, Hilton, are good names to be in. Lowes will also continue to benefit from home improvements. The resolution for Freddie and Fannie look further away under Biden but you never know. It´s a solid portfolio at a significant discount

[livingstone20] 25/2/2021 18:14

Scale wise think that’s anywhere from 8 - 25% of PSH asset value. I can’t see anywhere though what they are valuing these warrants at within the NAV today. It would be good to understand what differing premiums to par could mean, although there may be none and it is structured for long term.

[kinbasket] 25/2/2021 17:33

AIUI and I´m happy to be corrected, Tontine is a nominal holding in that PSH only holds all the warrants at the moment. ($65m cost). This is the only investment to date. PSH has a forward commitment of $1bn and an option of a further $2bn when the target is bought. If I understand it correctly, this means PSH gets up to $3bn of the new company at par. i.e. $20 per share. So when a target is identified and completed we get to buy in at an effective discount assuming the new company is priced above par by the market. Hope that makes sense. Like I said happy to be corrected.

[rickyl1] 25/2/2021 17:07

I agree that most spacs are in bubble territory but psth is set up uniquely and much more palatable to investors and targets. Huge names in the investor roll call too. I'm banking on Ackman knowing his shizzle.

[livingstone20] 25/2/2021 16:34

It is unclear to me what the Special Purpose Acquisition Company valuation is within PSH but it must be more than a few per cent as when on the investor call he broke down the 2020 over performance Tontine was a large contributor. Ackman also said it was highly unlikely to be at high end of funding requirements as it would become a disproportionately large per cent of portfolio. Also that present carrying valuation was based on a probability of completion. It appears in January that they set up a Tontine II company in Delaware, hence my interest in more. That would perhaps imply close to completing I.

[ntv] 25/2/2021 15:59

what is SPAC? anyone know the 10 holdings they have plus %'s tia

[riverman77] 25/2/2021 15:59

I'd be careful what you wish for on the SPAC front. A lot of commentators say the proliferation of SPACs is the surest sign of bubble territory and irrational exuberance. I agree, let's see how the first one goes.

[bmel] 25/2/2021 15:56

Livingstone - lets see the first one delivered and a success - then maybe think about another. Remeber if he gtes a high growth target company it will require additional funds to suppor that. May not be scope for a second, especially if teh first is teh monster alluded to. We shall see.....

[riverman77] 25/2/2021 15:20

How much exposure does PSH actually have to the SPAC? I thought it was only a few percent of the fund but could be a bit more. In any case PSH would be a rather indirect way of getting exposure to the SPAC. That aside, PSH still looks great value on 25% plus discount.

[livingstone20] 25/2/2021 15:11

Strangely quiet on here when the Tontine SPAC is so feverishly talked about in the US. Given we were guided to a Q1 announcement, the Feb investor call only said they liked to keep their promises but the timeline was in hands of target there seems a high probability of an announcement in the 4-8 weeks timeframe. That offers a decent chance of a NAV jump and discount narrowing, but more interesting angle for me is then the what next. With their sensible structure and a track record this could then become a SPAC machine with 1 a year. As an entry as UK SPAC serial founder it is well hidden at 20 per cent plus discount hidden from most US investors who are clammering for the Tontine at 45 per cent premium. A Tontine a year at entry prices could be a great kicker for long term performance in PSH - we could be adding a 5-10 per cent stake in a new company regularly at attractive entry points. Fingers crossed that the first one delivers!! Thoughts on PSH as a serial SPAC play?

[arja] 23/2/2021 13:50

downtrending now and maybe back to 2400 level in this bearish climate . But who knows in markets and dow is up and down like a yoyo !

[bmel] 19/2/2021 17:30

PSTH seems to be holding steady but several othre holdings are up 1%-2% each. These are good covid recovery plays.

[thruxie] 19/2/2021 15:01

I was half expecting a further drop today based on impatient PSTH punters selling. So pleasantly surprised we are in the green!

[rickyl1] 19/2/2021 13:51

The investor call wasn't that interesting after all. Though he did say about the spac that the timeline is out of their hands but the reward will be a big one and that the size of the fund makes psth the 'only game in town' for the unicorns.

[rickyl1] 18/2/2021 09:52

Yes, at some stage this closes the discount and flies. Some good covid recovery plays in the PF too. Investor call today will be interesting.

[ntv] 18/2/2021 09:47

Nett assets still growing at a good rate