Trump effect |
Bloodbath in the U.S. markets atm.
I am quite pleased I hold a decent chunk of my portfolio in the out of fashion UK Value sector. at last!
I'll keep holding this of course because when The Donald backs down on Tariffs (he'll spin it as a win of course but it wont be) things may recover somewhat. the Orange one does not have the faintest idea how economics or supply chains work. |
UMG results well received, up 5%+ |
Just a note on the fees thing There will be no real reduction in fees as the equivalent amount will be paid to PS from HHH itself. |
Does anyone have the faintest idea how long it will be before the new HHH 'takeover' offer is responded to by HHH?
- HHH had a good set of results of late and my bet is they will use this to push back on Ackman.
Lets remember, if it happens
- PSH holdings of HHH will not change
- The cash that is being offered as a swap for new stocks is all coming from Pershing Square Capital - the private parent management company
- Short Term upside stock value for us is limited - portfolios take time to build, downside is of course always there
- Success would reduce our fees paid to PS Capital over time.
The real beneficiaries will be PS Capital - - they have $900m to invest (from sale of 10% of PSHC to 'private' buyers a while back) - this is the new money that will be used t start building the 'Portfolio'. We (PSH) are almost passengers. PS Capital get a nice fee (not performance linked, % of total equity held) every year so they better add some value!) |
Level 2 assets in the transparency reports jumped by half a billion in January, but I am assuming these are mostly Nike options.
Will make it hard to spot if there are any substantially sized hedges in play. |
DOes PSH still hold Interest rate swaps?
They may suffer under Trump with inflationary Tariffs etc etc. |
Last time he hedged via credit markets (CDS indices I think) - credit spreads are near all time lows and can see them spiking if we get a general market sell-off. |
I had bought back into this and was pleased with myself for making 5% in as many days.
Down now obviously,
Did someone mention something about a hedge in the recent investor call? Fingers crossed BA saw this fall coming. |
Ignore that, it seems that's just Uber that we already knew was announced last month. New position still not clear. |
Looks like the new position Bill talked about is in consumer services. That's assumed from the monthly report as the total positions went up to 14 and consumer services is also a new sector on the list. Any guesses ? |
Added some at 4254p following recent pullbac. Current 28% discount, totally unjustified given strong NAV performance over the years. |
Big 12: Pershing’s Ackman says finding next Uber makes more sense than share buybacks - |
HHH have an earnings release tomorrow - i wonder if they will use that to give a response to the PSCH approach?.. |
I'm not listening but I am watching - am I correct that:
PSH Fund (us) - currently own 18.9m shares, which equates to 37.6% of HHH
Pershing Square (Holding Company) - will invest $900m, which equates to 10m NEW shares (16.6%)
So... PSH (Our) holding will remain the same at 18.9m shares but be diluted to 31.3%
Looks to me like immediate benefit will go to PSHoldCo, not us, we get diluted but have a more cash rich investment - so net net the same value of holding.
Bill and his mates are doing well out of this, PSH are aligned with them - they do wel l and we do also. Bil & team own 28% of PSH Funds - so alignment is complete.
I would like to know where capital is coming from the fund aquauisitions in teh future for HHH. If it comes from PS Hold CO then we (PSH) will be diluted more and more - watch this going forwards. |
Thank You European2244, i found it on X
Sadly I am in a meeting at 2pm UK time, so cannot attend. I hope that they record this.
What i'd like to know and don't understand tbh, is precisely what PSH will own if this goes through. From the surface it looks like 48% of HHH will be owned by PSH, which is a good portion of the equity. But i'd like to understand if this is correct, wether this will remain correct etc for the forseable.
For example - if HHH wants to 'aquire' a business where is the money coming from? Dilution? Debt? etc?
I cant help but have a nervous feeling that PSH will be very much the poor cousin going forward, Bill has a new focus, he's tried everything he can to get the PSH Discount down to zero and it still persists - so will PSH be reversed into HHH, what will happen to the UMG New Yourk listing etc etc |
Not just X. Nasty people on every platform if you don't agree with them. |
Thank You - I hate this 'X' information channel.
Last time i checked RNS's are the official news channel not X.
I try nd steer clear of X as it's full of nasty people |
He has linked to it on his X (Twitter) page, which is where he is streaming it. It will be available on demand after it has ended. |
Presentation?
I am not aware of one, can you pls share details? |
Bill has changed the HHH proposal. Not sure how PSH fits in exactly (does it retain its shares or transfer out to the PS holdco). Presentation 9am EST will hopefully answer some questions. |
And still trading on circa 25% discount. I got more on the UBER NEWs. This week's rise looks over done, but no good reason discount can't reduce to 20% orb15 over time. I quite like UBER and it's effectively free within PSH share price. |
Looking at the long term chart and using ballpark figures.
2019: 1000.
2025: 4500.
According to ChatGPT that works out at an annual percentage gain (CAGR) of approximately 28.49% per year.
Not too shabby. |
Want to know where the UBER money came from? Answer is probably Nike - sold the stock and went options instead -
"In early 2025, we converted our NIKE common equity position to deep inthe-money call options
New structure allows us to preserve the upside potential of owning the stock outright while unlocking capital to make new investments " |
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