Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 04/11/2023 21:08

Not sure about that - PSH 5y returns 160%, SMT 5y returns 42%. Don't mind paying an extra 1% fee or so for that scale of outperformance.

[apollocreed1] 04/11/2023 20:47

Well I've just checked the fees on FCIT and Scottish Mortgage Trust and they are between 0.3%-0.54%.
So actually my question still stands as they really are doing a similar job for a lot less money.

[apollocreed1] 04/11/2023 20:38

I see the point about the fees being higher as a payment for better performance. However, I have read that sometimes Investment Trust fees are deceptively higher than open ended fund fees because of some regulation that forces them to report fees differently to open ended funds, so I was hoping to get some answer on that.
But I'm glad I woke up a sleepy kind of board!

I can't see any better value than this on the market. A FTSE 100 company who's underlying portfolio is very liquid on such a high discount, easily outshines other potential options on the UK market.

[jellypbean] 04/11/2023 16:32

-3.6% is for Oct. We only have the reports for Sept. Big hits to UMG, Google in Oct. I think most of the 30yr treasuryshorts were closed by end of Sept. It would make sense to me that investors would know this (via the monthly reports) before BA would announce it on X, or can he really make such market sensitive announcements on social media?

[srichardson8] 04/11/2023 10:50

That is helpful though I can't quite see why the NAV was down 3.6% (if I am reading it correctly). Perhaps sterling moving a tiny bit better against the dollar or is that irrelevant?
Whatever it seems he/they closed those l-t TB put options smartly given what happened to longer term Treasuries tlast week. That was a huge move.I would guess Novemeber has sarted rather better.
Thanks also riverman. I have (of course) looked at the history but got the impression that they made a huge positive hit (and thus 3/5 yr outperformance) on reading the impact of the pandemic really well. I know a few did. But whatever I still think the discount is ludicrous.

[jellypbean] 03/11/2023 18:51

We know from the September transparency report on the PSH website that, during the month, shorts contributed 1.09%, and long positions -2.36%. 30 yr treasuries moved 0.5% during the month.

Also, by the end of the month, hedges were about 1.48% of NAV (Level 2 positions).

From the monthly accounts you can tell roughly how much of the hedge positions have been realised during the month). Worth looking back over these to see what the 'COVID hedge' looked like.

There is an investor update call scheduled for Nov 16th

I decided to buy back into these with a smaller position, tucked away in part of my portfolio where hopefully won't feel the need to follow them so closely.

[riverman77] 03/11/2023 13:28

I think you need to look at the long term record - 3y and above is really excellent and pretty much ahead of any other fund. You're right the interest rate puts didn't seem to have as much impact as I would have liked although it may have offset losses in the rest of the equity positons more than we realise so still a good trade.

[srichardson8] 03/11/2023 11:14

I thought the NAV performance in October (-3.6% net) was rather disappointing given the puts (recently closed amidst great publicity) on longer Treasuries. It looks like the overweight position in equities must be to blame? But I am rather new into this vehicle so would appreciate any guidance including on how to read the NAV release announcements. I still think the discount is absurd but given the lack of transparency can understand it to a degree.

[riverman77] 03/11/2023 08:53

I'm pretty sure this would trade at a premium if listed in the US - the Carl Ichan vehicle does and that's not even as good as this. Surely Ackman will not tolerate this much longer and do something to address the chronic under valuation.

[williamcooper104] 03/11/2023 08:51

Normal PE/hedge fund fee arrangements

[riskvsreward] 03/11/2023 08:48

Performance over 1, 3, 5 years are far better than fundsmiths. As long as it performs well, higher fee is justified.

[rickyl1] 03/11/2023 08:29

Paying for Bill's secret sauce.

[apollocreed1] 03/11/2023 06:19

Can anyone please explain why the management fee on PSH is so high? From HL's website it says that they are 1.64%, whereas a fund like Fundsmith only charges 0.95%

[mozy123] 26/10/2023 00:37

Probably needs to relist in new york.

[rickyl1] 25/10/2023 22:53

Discount getting towards 40%, surely that's crazy. The buyback seems to have no effect and the Ackman element may even be detrimental at this point as far as sentiment goes. Real head scratcher this.

[williamcooper104] 25/10/2023 21:15

Ft reporting $200m gain

[jellypbean] 25/10/2023 20:13

30 year treasury yields increased 0.5% during Sept.
Sept account statement showed no net unrealised gains in "commodity interests" during the month (30M USD loss), but 138M USD of net realised gains.
Surely there would have been unrealised gains if the 30 year short was still in play at the end of Sept.
Anyhoo, that's my interpretation of the data available to us.

[rambutan2] 25/10/2023 04:19

Yes, he'd exited the 10yr a few week's ago, but kept the 30yr on. So, that was what the tweet was noting ie 30yr now closed. At least, that's my take.

[riverman77] 24/10/2023 18:44

Hard to say as it's so opaque, but certainly doesn't seem to have had a meaningful impact on NAV - certainly no repeat of the short credit position he put on in 2020, which was probably the trade of their century.

[jellypbean] 23/10/2023 20:50

Personally I think that was largely done by the end of September.

[donald pond] 23/10/2023 14:50

Bill tweeted bond short now covered

[jellypbean] 13/10/2023 22:34

Looks like the hedges added about 1.1% during Sept., with all the net gains realised. Thought the 30 year hedge might have delivers a little bit more than that, but maybe some of the other hedges lost? Anyway, I'm out of this now; just doesn't seem to be something I can just buy and hold without constantly trying to figure out what's going on under the hood.

[jellypbean] 06/10/2023 17:59

Grr, UL3S are up 45% since I mentioned them on 3rd August. I got as far as getting a live quote for them, but bottled it, and left the money in a global growth investment trust.

[jellypbean] 05/10/2023 16:22

Minor correction to my post. Of the initial purchase of 7.1% of UMG, only 2.5 of the 2.8 Bn USD spent was PSH, with the rest being an affiliate. All other things being equal, this would make UMG c.26.8% of PSH now.