Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[pro_s2009] 26/11/2021 11:22

bad gateway, all depends whats on offer.

The trouble with farm outs and placings......it matters not what the distressed company needing the money thinks their assets are worth - its what other people who are farming in or putting up cash for placing shares think the assets are worth.

PANR are distressed in that they do not have enough money to execute their plans. They need to farm out or raise fresh money.

So they are at the mercy of what anyone wants to put in........quite simply, if the PANR management are too belligerent and refuse "bad priced farm out" or "bad priced placing"......all that will happen is it will go to the wire and then they will have to accept a very badly price fund raise......

With oil prices now falling and for sure "new variant" talk for 4 weeks to come to subdue oil prices and also stop too much traveling over the Christmas and New Year period - now is not the best time to raise money or farm out. Should have been done some time ago imo.

All imo. DYOR.

[hiddendepths] 26/11/2021 09:59

From yesterday's Telegraph, via the awesome Mount Teide on the TXP thread.

"Telegraph article today by Ambrose Evens-Pritchard that should be a must read for all O&G sector investors!

Finally, someone in the mainstream media who has actually worked out that the fossil fuel run $86 trillion global economy is nearing the point in the long commodity cycle where the complete collapse of investment in upstream O&G exploration and production development since 2014 is about to come back and bite it big time!"


Panicky Joe Biden has failed the oil price test - Telegraph today

It is hard to keep giving Joe Biden the benefit of the doubt. The emergency release of oil stocks from the US strategic petroleum reserve this week violates every rule of statecraft and market management.

To borrow from Napoleon, if you say you are going to take Vienna, take Vienna. The White House has just succeeded in driving up the price of crude oil in a bungled attempt to do the opposite. A release of 50m barrels - with double-counting - is barely 12 hours of global consumption and too small to swing a giant complex market.

Washington now has a bigger problem on its hands. Oil market bulls are stirring because they have seen Mr Biden play and waste a useful card. The deterrent value of the petroleum reserve has been reduced.

Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank said the reserve is nearing the 90-day floor needed to cover severe supply shocks.

“The US has been selling decent chunks for weeks. The market knows they’ll struggle to repeat this and they now look naked,” he said.

The petroleum reserve was created in 1975 after the OPEC oil embargo to cope with “disruptions of supply” but there is no such disruption today. The US Energy Information Agency itself says the market is in healthy balance.

Crude prices have risen but are not particularly high. Brent is hovering around $80 a barrel, far below sustained levels near $100 from 2011 to 2014, let alone the $148 peak in mid-2008. Oil is flowing smoothly and trading close to its long-term historical average in real terms.

What America does face is near-record fuel prices at the pump, though nothing like the supply shock of the 1970s, an era when gas-guzzlers were half as efficient. Petrol has jumped 50pc since January to $3.50 a gallon - still tame in UK terms - with the blame increasingly being laid at the foot of the White House.

Mr Biden first tried to cajole OPEC into opening the spigot. Failing that, he has cajoled a string of states, including Britain, to join his futile attempt to buck the forces of global supply and demand. His other reflex is to seek scapegoats.

“I have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in this sector. Gas supply companies are paying less and making a lot more, and they do not seem to be passing that on to consumers,” he said.

In this respect we really are back to the 1970s when President Nixon imposed price controls in a forlorn attempt to suppress inflation caused by his own government. In that instance it was the fiscal boom of the Great Society and the Vietnam War, egged on by loose money from a co-opted Federal Reserve.

The reason why US petrol prices have been rising faster than crude oil itself is because of soaring costs in the refining industry. The “crack spread” has widened. Mr Biden’s advisers must know this, so is it unfair to suspect that he is resorting to cynical, business-bashing, Peron populism in order to halt the slide in his poll ratings? Is he the Trump of the Left?

As in the early 1970s, the underlying cause of US cost inflation is the printing press of the Federal Reserve. The output gap has officially closed. There is no longer slack in the economy.

Capacity constraints are visible everywhere. The jobs “quit rate” used to track tightness in the labour market has never been so high. The Atlanta Fed’s instant tracker of GDP growth for the fourth quarter is running at a blistering 8.2pc.

Yet the Powell Fed is still injecting stimulus. Having already gunned the broad M3 money by 30pc since the start of the pandemic, it continues to purchase over $100bn of bonds each month and continues to hold interest rates at zero. That is why inflation has soared to a 30-year high of 6.2pc, accelerating to an annualised 10pc rate last month.

[bad gateway] 26/11/2021 09:45

Should have had a placing at 95p not access to a short term loan should they have the confidence to purchase the longlead items imo.
Falling away quickly from the 50dsma now. Could get interesting as crossing that to the upside was the start of the move up from the 31p level.

[bigwavedave] 26/11/2021 09:44

Is it a Black Friday or a Black Friday sale? I'm tempted to see it as the latter.

[pharmawotsit] 26/11/2021 08:54

 hiddendepths and scot - Many thanks for your replies last night.

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/11/2021 08:50

As this was a known risk, presumably we should be castigating ourselves for not hedging if we fear loss resulting from individual investments? Do what is within YOUR OWN control.

[hiddendepths] 26/11/2021 08:22

Agreed johnswan - you and I both said it weeks ago. The longer they leave it, the greater the risk. Let's hope the potential farminees don't use this as leverage to screw a bit more out of PANR. And Plan B might have to be, errm, adjusted somewhat.

[johnswan193] 26/11/2021 08:09

Drop this morning just following the wider market re new Covid fears. This is exactly why this is not the sort of environment to be holding off longer for funding than is necessary. A bird in the hand…..

[scot126] 25/11/2021 23:36

Hi pharmawotsit - I used to sit nearby to some astrophysicist nerds in a US megabank, also known as the Quant team! I asked exactly that question too. The answer I received was that the vast majority of index funds get themselves positioned for the start of the index period, in our case by cob 30/11/21. The guys (yes, they were all guys) said that the index funds were agnostic to the point of not caring too much about how they got correctly weighted in the period between publication of the revisions (promotions and deletions) and the day when their fund is judged on its ability to track the index as closely as possible. I'm simply repeating what they told me.

[scot126] 25/11/2021 23:27

Dear All - I’ve looked at the Russell AIM Index rules again. I reckon PANR is a pretty decent shout for inclusion in the AIM 100 during the December quarterly review, and it's maybe just on the cusp of the AIM 50. If you forced my hand I’d say PANR is highly likely to be included in the AIM 100 and will narrowly miss out on the AIM 50. These indices are reviewed quarterly fyi.

[hiddendepths] 25/11/2021 23:23

There always used to be a bit of leeway for many of those funds to adjust. I guess that might have changed. I've seen several cases where shares move up ahead of inclusion and then slip back again on and after it! Hard to say what the impact will be.

[pharmawotsit] 25/11/2021 23:20

 I've been thinking a bit about the inclusion of PANR in the MSCI Small Cap Index.

 The relevant funds have until EOD 30th Nov to align their portfolios with PANR.

 Could they say to their mates "Can we get them as cheaply as possible please ?"

 Or do these situations not apply and they'll just acquire at the going rate ?

 I ask purely to wonder at (if not rationalise) the recent volatility in the share price

[scot126] 25/11/2021 18:42

*Speculation only*

I've looked at the FTSE AIM index requirements. Silence is being deleted and I wonder if PANR will be one of the candidates to replace it in the Dec review? More work required and will revert.

PS Natch, the RNS could be a simple human/clerical error but it got me thinking about the AIM index revisions for the quarter. At time of writing, PANR is not in the AIM 100 but looks like it will qualify in the December revision. More to follow.

[markfrankie] 25/11/2021 18:26

A good day,

[bit coin] 25/11/2021 17:47

rns nothing to do with pantheon

[chris0805] 25/11/2021 17:38

RNS popped up... seems spurious?

[ngms27] 25/11/2021 16:01

HD, thanks for the clarification. FWIW I have michaelsadvfn on the filter list so haven't a clue what he wrote!

[hiddendepths] 25/11/2021 15:57

jonny - no, I did NOT mean a rebuttal of YOU and I'm sure Rabito didn't either. It was a rebuttal of some of the things that some, particularly Pro and johnswan, had speculated and argued. Two very different things! It contained no attack on you or anyone else but simply stated and justified an opposite view. That is at the heart of sophisticated debate imo! And this counter was brief, to the point and incisive.

For me it added value because I had not properly remembered that part of the presentation. If it had been coloured with personal attacks, like michaelsADVFN's preceding post, it would probably have added no value at all.

And michael added - "Don’t forget they can access 200mmbbls of recoverable oil from gravel pads next to the highway." And that is far from proven as yet, is it not? I'm sure many of us objectionable, I mean objective, types would like to see more challenge of these unjustified assertions as well as the incessant challenges of those with a more sceptical leaning.

[gozo] 25/11/2021 15:03

I seem to remember the PANR share price taking off the last time Pro appeared ..... he has his uses