Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[probabilityofsuccess] 25/11/2021 14:39

Simple error with good intent, or we just implicitly don’t trust you ngms because of your pessimism bias? Easy to conflate the two isn’t it.

I trusted it was a simple error from you, and you subsequently (albeit begrudgingly!) acknowledged that, which builds more trust.

[ngms27] 25/11/2021 14:25

hiddendepths, you mean a rebuttal of me? Sure my memory was wrong around the SMD-B being below Alkaid BUT it wasn't wrong with proximity to the Highway and hence TAPs nor that it much more extensive than Alkaid, nor that to date it hasn't been flow tested.

My opinion is thus still entirely valid.

[winner66] 25/11/2021 14:19

It certainly does , looking strong for a reset of plus 85 today . All in my opinion

[bit coin] 25/11/2021 14:16

Looks promising!

[winner66] 25/11/2021 14:12

And we are off .

[hiddendepths] 25/11/2021 12:58

And that, Rabito, is the sort of post I for one really welcome as a rebuttal!

[rabito79] 25/11/2021 12:51

In my opinion the revelation that SMD-B stretches to TAPS/Dalton would warrant delaying the Alkaid drill to allow development/appraisal plans to be updated. Indeed we were shown updated plans in the August webinar in the 'Monetizing the Assets' section around the 55min mark.

[michaelsadvfn] 25/11/2021 12:48

‘johnswan193 25 Nov '21 - 09:22 - 19522 of 19544 0 1 0

HD, why do you think that neither management or partners have believed in Alkaid enough to develop it further? Certified contingent resource of 76.5mmbo right by the TAPS with an NPV >$500m at $55 per barrel held flat, expected to be bigger than that, yet sitting there for years doing nothing.’

Such posts are the very reason swendab created a Guild, FYI.
“Jay, why do neither you nor your partners believe in Alkaid enough to develop it further?”

Just laughable nonsense pulled out of thin air. No facts.

They were actually delighted to get 100bbls/day from a mere 6’ perforated section. There’s another 234’ yet to be tested.
Don’t forget they can access 200mmbbls of recoverable oil from gravel pads next to the highway.
Don’t you worry john, there’s more than enough belief in Alkaid.

[rabito79] 25/11/2021 12:45

Ngms, SMD-B is ~600ft above Alkaid. Slides around the 49 minute mark in August's webinar clearly demonstrate this. I would have thought you would have known this given your exchange with Tele on Reddit where he put you right on a number of misunderstandings regarding SMD-B.

[hiddendepths] 25/11/2021 12:06

Agreed Chris - that would be good!

[chris0805] 25/11/2021 11:30

The stated plan for winter works is test Talitha A & drill Theta West. Alkaid will be after that for obvious reasons Personally I would like to see funding for all three projects secured in the next week.

[ngms27] 25/11/2021 11:23

johnswan193,

It's my understanding that the SMD B sits below the Alkaid sands and looks far more interesting and extensive.

[johnswan193] 25/11/2021 11:06

Maybe I'm wrong and perhaps somebody else can clarify, but isn't SMD B expected to extend to Alkaid and form part of that project (and subject to flow test result of that zone at Talitha).

Pro - they can always go ahead with Alkaid and still have something left for later - the Kuparuk. If this BB is anything to go by then it appears they should be able to suck more into believing in that as a standalone project should they need to.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 25/11/2021 10:50

"SO would I"

Preferable and more likely, one suspects, than Alkaid not being 'worth the effort'.

[pro_s2009] 25/11/2021 10:49

HD, imo they are scared to drill Alkaid until they have more cash in the bank, so they have a fallback.

Alkaid is only Contingent Resources - NOT RESERVES. And it could all go wrong and fail to flow commercially.

"........Contingent resources are resources in known accumulations that are estimated to be potentially recoverable, but not yet commercially recoverable due to some contingencies........"


So a big fund raise before Talitha testing is needed, imo, so that the fall back is Talitha fails, Alkaid fails then they have enough money for a |"Hail Mary" Theta West drill..........

.........Or more likely they will keep Alkaid as a carrot, as it has Contingent Resources, so for me the most likely is test Talitha and drill Theta West......and use Alkaid as the fall back again for future fund raising if Talitha and Theta West fail.

So I think Alkaid will remain just a project on paper for now as they dont want to destroy something that may later be the only way to raise money in future.

All imo.

[ngms27] 25/11/2021 10:34

SO would I

[gorgeousgeorge01] 25/11/2021 10:24

"It could bring in a cash lump sum apart from anything else. And someone else could take over the operating mantle and do all the work while PANR retains the benefit of a proportion of relatively early cashflow."

A superb outcome. I'd be delighted with that.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 25/11/2021 10:20

"gg, you miss the point entirely. If you implicitly trusted Dr Trice then you would have agreed (with him) that the water was perched as the share price plummeted and continued to hold and lose more dough until the BoD ousted him and said the water was from the aquifer with all it's far reaching implications."

Yet I didn't do that and I trusted Trice implicitly. The geological matters you are referring to are inherently uncertain. There can be no definitive statements of fact ahead of extended testing.

I am talking about statements of fact in relation to what could be regarded as 'objective truths'. Talk of perched water is related to geological risk, a matter of uncertainty, conjecture, interpretation, even opinion. If Trice said that negotiations had taken place in relation to a farm-out and they hadn't, that would be a lie and grounds for mistrust.

I once owned shares in a very speculative small oil shale company. The then CEO publicly stated that they had completed the permitting process for their acreage. It turned out that the process was incomplete and they lacked a vital environmental discharge permit. I immediately sold the shares and never looked back.

I am very specific here. I am not talking about the testing of a scientific hypothesis or challenging a conjecture. These things we must do. But they are not matters of trust and integrity. In Pantheon's case, I say without hesitation that I trust the board IMPLICITLY. Does that mean they are infallible? Of course not.

I trust my wife IMPLICITLY. Does that mean that I don't tear my hair out in frustration? Certainly not! I wouldn't entrust my financial interests to anyone, be they an individual or company, whom I couldn't trust IMPLICITLY. I would be a fool to do so.

[hiddendepths] 25/11/2021 10:14

gg - A separate Alkaid farm-out would certainly make a lot of sense if it's gone down in the PANR pecking order! It could bring in a cash lump sum apart from anything else. And someone else could take over the operating mantle and do all the work while PANR retains the benefit of a proportion of relatively early cashflow.

[ngms27] 25/11/2021 10:09

gg, he's welcome to it. Again you miss the point.

As an Operator would you first develop something far larger and sustainable a few hundred meters deeper or something a little shallower but much smaller?

I know what I'd do hence my personal opinion.

Why not ask Jay and post what he says the reasons are, given you are close to management?

[gorgeousgeorge01] 25/11/2021 10:05

"Well it's my opinion that the graphical interpretations showed Alkaid to not really be worth the effort and that the SMD looks a far better option close to the highway BUT hasn't been tested. Hence nothing doing at present and likely never will with PANR IF this Winters flow tests are successful."

That can only be an opinion and, in my judgement, a bad one at that. Not worth the effort? How do you know that it isn't worth the effort for someone? Scotty and his side could be having a whip-round as we speak to farm-in to Alkaid. I tell you what, if I had the means, I'd do it myself. A tremendous opportunity for a smaller player or a family office. I think it foolish to simply dismiss Alkaid - the rapid revenue generator!